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This is one of the longest posts of all the rankings posts, especially this season where I have more defensemen in the Top 20 overall than ever before. I’ll just say that I will have 41-60 up by the end of the week, and if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, let me know.  Let’s get to it!

1) Connor McDavid

2) Nathan MacKinnon

3) Nikita Kucherov

4) Macklin Celebrini

5) Leon Draisaitl

6) David Pastrnak

7) Kirill Kaprizov

8) Jason Robertson – Everyone from McDavid to Robertson made my Top 10 overall.  You can read about them all in detail here.

9) Martin Necas

10) Matt Boldy

11) Jack Eichel

12) Auston Matthews

13) Matthew Tkachuk

14) Brandon Hagel – Everyone from Necas to Hagel made my Top 20 overall.  You can read about them all in detail here.

15) Mikko Rantanen – I went into these rankings planning to have Rantanen lower, but my perception of Rantanen’s 25-26 season was off.  He didn’t struggle at all offensively, posting a fantastic 77 points in 64 games.  That’s not to say it was perfect, because it wasn’t.  Rantanen’s shot rate dropped significantly to a below average rate, causing his goals to drop down to 22.  I’m baking in a bounce back there to some extent, but we’re talking about a guy who was a top ten pick for years.  It shouldn’t take much convincing for you to want Rantanen.

16) Jack Hughes – Twenty-one, twenty, twenty.  That’s how many games Hughes has missed in the last three seasons.  We know on a per-game basis that Hughes will be fantastic.  We’re talking 100+ points and 300+ shots over 82 games.  The injury risk is a bit higher than someone like Matthews even, which is why I have Hughes a bit behind that group of guys.  That said, last season’s absence was caused by a fluke injury to his hand at dinner, so I’ll give him a bit more of a pass.  If you want to shoot the moon, Hughes could turn in a top 10 season with relative ease.  This is a reminder that my rankings prioritize the scoring categories, so adjust him down if your league includes hits, and especially if it includes hits and PIM.

17) Cole Caufield – Last season, one of my 10 bold predictions was that Caufield would score 45+ goals.  He was even better, scoring 51 and adding 37 assists.  The power play points were fantastic, and Caufield was over three shots per game.  Last season feels like a best case for Caufield, which is why I knocked him down, albeit slightly.  Caufield also has a very good health history.  He feels like one of the safest bets for goals and shots early in drafts.

18) Jake Guentzel – Quietly, Guentzel was the 10th best forward last season.  You can pretty much lock Guentzel into 40+40 with upside from there, making him one of the safest picks on the board.  I really don’t have much to say on Guentzel because at this point, he’s established what he is.

19) Nick Suzuki – Suzuki managed to take another step forward last season, putting up a whopping 101 points with a whopping 43 power play points.  Similarly to Caufield, last season feels like a best case for scenario for Suzuki, but that was a borderline top five season.  I was tempted to drop him a bit lower because of the shot rate, but at the same time, he’s so good defensively and his linemates are fantastic.  You can’t really ignore someone likely to put up 90+ points for too long.

20) Tage Thompson – Another season, another 40 goals for Tage.  The shot rate remains elite, and his prowess at even strength gives him the highest floor for goals outside of the highest level superstars.  One reason that I’m remaining bullish on Thompson is that I expect Benson to remain on his line.  Benson is already an elite play driver, which Tuch wasn’t anymore.  The more time Tage spends in the offensive end, the more we get to see that deadly shot.  The power play could also improve with Kulich’s return, plus Benson down low.  I’m not predicting Tage jumps to 50+ goals, but I’m fully expecting a repeat of last season at minimum.  He was a top 30 forward last season, so this feels about right.

21) Cutter Gauthier – Gauthier sure looks like Tage with a bit less assists.  His second season was fantastic, scoring 41 goals and putting a whopping 285 shots on goal in 76 games.  Sure, 28 assists is low, but there’s plenty of reason to expect another incremental increase.  Stylistically, Anaheim is playing a way to help their offensive talent thrive, and as far as goal scorers go, Gauthier is clearly their best option.  This could be a bit rich, but I’m obviously bullish.  Nothing about the 41 goals looks fluky.

22) Kyle Connor – Despite Winnipeg being big disappointments, Connor did his usual damage with 39 goals and 53 assists.  The shot rate is also quite good, and outside of one injury, has stayed very healthy over the last five seasons.  I do have a few concerns though.  It does seem like Winnipeg has some disaster potential going into this season.  The team is still very slow and if Hellebuyck is moved, we’re looking at Skinner in net.  He also demands to play with Scheifele despite the two of them getting caved every season.  If anything, I might move him down some more, but I respect the floor.

23) William Nylander – Nylander has been alternating between playing at a 95+ point pace, and being in the 85 range.  That floor definitely puts him in this range.  After three straight 40+ goal seasons, he played last season just under that pace because his shot rate dropped drastically.  It did result in a career high shooting percentage, but I don’t want to bet on anyone shooting 19% again.  A better power play could help balance that out, but the main thing is simply getting Nylander to shoot more again.

24) Brady Tkachuk – Brady took the coward’s way out and forced a trade to play with his brother in Florida.  He might have the highest chance of anyone in the top 40 to be under a point per game (Gauthier could have a higher chance).  That said, we’re drafting Tkachuk for his ability to crush the banger categories and shots.  Will he keep getting 3.5-4 shots per game on a new team?  I suspect that he will.  The hits and penalty minutes are certainly going to stay amongst the best of all fantasy relevant players.  I’m curious to see how he fits the Florida power play as well.  His brother generally works down low and Reinhart should be in the bumper.  I’d argue Brady doesn’t have the ability to be on a half wall on the power play, so do they force Matthew there, or play somebody else in that spot?  That’s something we’ll have to monitor in preseason.

25) Wyatt Johnston – I’ve always been a Johnston fan, but I never expected him to turn into a 45 goal scorer, let alone at age 23.  He’s one of the riskier players in this group because he shot 21.8% and 27 of his goals came on the power play.  This is a case of me buying the talent and expecting him to regain his best even strength game.  A healthier team around him would certainly help, and Johnston has yet to miss a game in his NHL career, giving us some nice security.  You can’t go wrong buying stock of the stars on Dallas, who are also Stars!

26) Clayton Keller – I was surprised to see that Keller was a top 20 forward last season.  It was a strong case of being good at everything across the board (besides hits).  Keller put up 60+ assists for the second straight season, and while his goals have trended down the last three seasons, he’s due for some positive regression.  I know the next guy on this list became a power play trigger man, but Keller won’t be scoring three PPG again.  He fits pretty much every team build, making him a safe pick.

27) Dylan Guenther – I’ve been extremely aggressive ranking Guenther the last few seasons, and he has delivered.  Last season was easily his best, scoring 4 goals and tying his career high in assists with 33.  There’s only one reason he’s down here with Johnston and behind Tage and Gauthier, who are all similar player types, and that’s his shot rate.  It’s very good at right around three per game, but Tage and Gauthier are clearly higher.  He’s barely below Johnston because Johnston is likely to have 10ish more assists.  I’m still in on Guenther, but keep expectations in check.

28) Mark Scheifele – After his first 100 point season, this definitely seems disrespectful to Scheifele.  As mentioned in the Connor blurb, I see some real downside with the Jets this season.  With how Scheifele is defensively, there’s some real plus-minus disaster potential.  He’s also 33 years old now and it’s possible that we see some age-relayed falloff.  I’m not out completely, but I don’t really want any Scheifele stock either.

29) Filip Forsberg – After having injury issues earlier in his career, Forsberg has played every game in each of the past three seasons.  Forsberg is coming off his third 40 goal season in the past five, and while his shot rate dropped, he was still at three per game.  The Predators fixed their depth which should help the top line a bit, and Forsberg did seem to find chemistry with Evangelista.  It might be a little rich having Forsberg here, but I’ve had him in this range for a while now, and he always seems to finish in this range at the end of the season.  I’m not going to overthink it.

30) Connor Bedard – Bedard had the best season of his young career, scoring 30+45 in 69 games and just over three shots per game.  If you want to bet on his talent / natural growth and put him higher than this, I’m alright with it.  Their power play should be improved with Kane’s arrival.  Personally, the rest of the team still looks like a cellar dwellar to me.  Maybe the other young guys take a big leap, but there is very little in the way of veteran help, and the blue line is hideous.  I’m expecting a huge minus here, and I think we’re a year away from seeing the big jump.

31) Artemi Panarin – The story here is very similar as the guy below him from a fantasy perspective.  Panarin is a proven fantasy superstar who we should expect to finish with a point per game until we see otherwise.  Here is to hoping Laviolette unleashes Clarke, or at least keeps him on PP1 permanently, as I could see the Kings sneakily having an elite power play.  Regardless, I don’t have much to add here because we know what Panarin is at this point.

32) Sidney Crosby – Speaking of knowing what he is at this point, can we get a 22nd year over a point per game?  I’m certainly not betting against Crosby.  The shot rate has dropped quite a bit, but that could go in either direction.  A repeat of last season, when he played at a 35+55 pace, is within reason.  And to think at this time last year, people thought Crosby could end up getting traded somewhere else.

33) Leo Carlsson – The 18 million dollar man, Carlsson was fantastic last season on the whole, but he was even better pre-injury.  How you rank Carlsson comes down to one question: do you put more weight on the opening to the season, or treat everything equally?  In the first two months, Carlsson was a top three player in fantasy, with 13+21 in 25 games.  He finished just below a point per game and a solid, albeit unspectacular shot rate.  I put a bit more weight on the opening and expect Carlsson to finish in this 85-90 point range that the guys above him are in.  There’s a bit of risk in that so I put him at the bottom, but his upside is clearly higher than Panarin and Crosby’s at this point.

34) Tim Stutzle – Stutzle was back over a point per game for the first time in three seasons, while also bumping his shot rate back up to an average level for a forward.  He’s also a solid contributor in hits and PIM, which is a nice bonus.  Stutzle is another guy who seems to always finish in this range, but if anything, I was tempted to move him up.  I see a path to the Sens rallying around Tkachuk’s departure with Stutzle spearheading their attack.  There’s also a chance that Eklund takes the offensive jump that people expecting in San Jose.  Generally, I don’t target many guys with a shot rate in Stutzle’s range or below, but over a month out from the start of the season, I can see myself making an exception for Stutzle.

35) Kirill Marchenko – I expected a small step forward into fantasy superstardom from Marchenko last season, but he ended up taking a very small step back.  I can’t help but think he has a 40 goal season in him with how good his shot is.  Columbus did add Nichushkin, who I think could help Marchenko a fair amount with his ability to drive play.  The one thing that gives me pause is that there’s a chance Columbus’ season goes off the rails, specifically with Marchenko’s unwillingness to sign an extension.  With Werenski saying he will play this season out, I think they’ll be fine, but they need to avoid a bad start.

36) Mitch Marner – It feels low to put a player of Marner’s caliber this low, but I’m tempted to put him even lower than this.  I’m willing to give him a second chance in Vegas, but his first regular season wasn’t good by his standards.  He was just under a point per game, and more importantly, his shot rate continued to go down the tubes, finishing just above two per game.  I’m not expecting a bounce back there, but I do think we get Marner back in the 90 point range instead of 80.

37) Juraj Slafkovsky – I’ve already taken the L on Slafkovsky, who just smashed career highs across the board.  He’s also a big contributor in hits and PIM.  I’m not sure how much more room there is for Slafkovsky to grow, but he doesn’t have to in order to deliver this value.  Getting to play with Suzuki and Caufield certainly doesn’t hurt either.  If you think he can get to a point per game, you can bump Slafkovsky up five spots or so.  Personally, I think he’s the fifth wheel on the power play, so I don’t think he quite gets there.

38) Sam Reinhart – This is probably a surprise to most, but Reinhart has proven his quality time and time again.  He gets Barkov back as his center and presumably B. Thachuk on his wing now.  While I don’t think he approaches 57 goals ever again, I think Reinhart gets back into that 40+40 range, and that will make him a top 30 forward.

39) Alex DeBrincat – DeBrincat was actually a top 20 forward last season, but the departure of Kane will probably hurt him a tad.  There’s also the potential departure of Larkin looming over the team.  That said, I can’t really drop DeBrincat any lower than this.  He’s played every game for five straight seasons, and the shot rate is back up to elite levels.  DeBrincat isn’t a sexy pick, but you don’t need to shoot the moon every time.

40) Adrian Kempe – Speaking of a steady pick, Kempe has been in this range for years.  There’s a chance this is too low if he clicks with Panarin in a big way, but the centers on the Kings terrify me.  The shots are solid, as are the hits and PIM, so Kempe gives us an excellent floor.  I’m expecting another season in the 35+35 ballpark while hitting all of the categories, with the chance to score 40.  That makes Kempe an easy fit on every team.

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Ashtray
Ashtray
1 day ago

I have to pick my keepers soon and I’m pretty sure I’m going to roll with Pastrnak and Robertson. But I also have Raddysh, Tage Thompson, Ehlers, Jarvis, and Marner. Cats are G, A, +/-, PPP, Shots and Hits. Any reason to consider those other guys?