I can't believe the season is already starting today with my beloved Sabres taking on the Devils in Prague. I've gone through all of my rankings at this point to provide you with assistance for your drafts. Now, before every team starts their season over the next week, it's time to make some bold predictions for the upcoming season. For those who haven't read this type of post in the past, these are meant to be bold. If I hit three of them, I will be quite happy. On the good side last season, I predicted that Talbot would be a top ten goalie and that Gostisbehere would be more valuable than Seider in non-banger leagues despite going 100 picks after him. On the bad side, I predicted that Vejmelka would be a top 15 goalie, Devon Levi would get Calder votes, and Binnington would carry negative value. Let's get to it!
We keep things moving in these parts with the rest of my forward rankings. I am going to put these guys into tiers with comments on players that I think are worth discussion. For example, I'm not going to talk about Scheifele because at this point, we know he's going to be right around a point per game with his goals coming down to how effective the Winnipeg PP is. For the Top 40, you can read that here. Let's get to it!
My bullishness of Wyatt Johnston as a hockey player is well known in these parts. The 20 year old has the makings of a future stud in both regular hockey and for fantasy. Right now, he's been given the best opportunity early in his career, and he's taking full advantage of it. Johnston was bumped onto the first line with Dallas' two best forwards, Robertson and Hintz, and Johnston has been excellent since the change. Robertson totaled three assists, four shots and two PIM in the 5-4 win over the Red Wings on Tuesday. Johnston has seven points in his last five games while averaging over three shots per game. The new change is enough to put Johnston on the fringe, and with Dallas closing the week with Anaheim and Washington, I would definitely be targeting Johnston for the bottom of my roster. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
I’ll be honest, I don’t have a good open for the weekend post. But “The Wire’ is indisputably the best TV show of all-time. I can watch it every time through and see something I didn’t before. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Towards the 2020 NHL trade deadline, the Maple Leafs acquired Campbell and Clifford for the Kings for two draft picks and a former undrafted player who looked like a AAAA player. He was coming off a big season for the Marlies, but was struggling at the NHL level. That player was Trevor Moore. Now, he's a top six player on one of the best teams in the league. Moore scored two goals on five shots against the Coyotes on Monday. That brings him up to 9+6 on the season with a shot rate pushing towards three per game. Moore is certainly on the fringe, but right now, I'm leaning towards holding. The big reason is that Kevin Fiala moved onto a line with Moore and Phillip Danault (1+1). Moore and Danault are both good play drivers, but Fiala is right there with them with an elite skill set. Albeit in a short sample, this line is generating opportunities at a rate as high as any in the league. They also get the bonus of going against weaker competition because of the Kopitar line. While this start looks like an outlier based on Moore's previous stats, the underlying numbers suggest that he should continue to produce. Let's take a look at what else happened Monday night:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the seventh edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume six. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Even for Nikita Kucherov, the start to this season is on another level. Kucherov scored two goals and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Maple Leafs, and then followed it up with a goal and an assist with six shots against the Canadiens. That brings Kucherov to 10+12 in 13 games, including 11 in the last three games. He also has 5+ shots in the last five games, and seven of the last nine. This game pushes him past Pettersson for the league lead in points. The top guys on Tampa look so much better, and I can't help but think that being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs helped them for this season. So many long playoff runs for the Lightning that a real offseason had to do them wonders. We can't expect this level, but Kucherov looks poised to give his 128 points from his Hart Trophy season a run for his money. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Mason McTavish had an ADP of 250 this season. I had him ranked at 176th overall. While I wasn't fully convinced he would make a huge leap in his sophomore season, his upside is so high that I thought he was a worthwhile gamble towards the end of your drafts. It's paid massive dividends in the early going, and McTavish had his best game to date on Monday. He scored two goals and an assist with five shots and two PIM, including the shorthanded winner with 13 seconds left in the game. McTavish now has 5+6 in 11 games with a good shot rate, plus-minus and PIM. McTavish is still available in almost 70% of leagues, which is blasphemous. I've been holding onto him since the draft in a ten man league, and think it's become clear that he needs to be held everywhere. In dynasties, he's a top 50 keeper. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The hockey season is underway with nine total games in the books so far. In this post, I will cover those games quickly at the end highlighting some notables, and will have the same for Friday despite a shortened Thursday schedule. Monday morning will have my first big set of daily notes from the weekend. This post will open with 10 Bold Predictions for the season. These are all meant to be bold; I'd be glad to hit on three of them. Last season, we had some awful whiffs (thanks Cole Sillinger) but also hit on Dahlin being a top 5 defenseman and predicting massive failure for Chicago and Philly from a fantasy (and real) perspective. Let's get to it!
If you didn't see Part One, check it out here. Let's get right into Part Two.
Tier Eight: Elite Upside But Medium Floor
This year couldn't be going any worse for the Columbus Blue Jackets. A horrible record, terrible injuries to key players, and dreadful goaltending have sunk them from the beginning. Now that they're in the Bedard race, their fans probably aren't even happy that they won on Tuesday night. Their prize free agent signing, Johnny Gaudreau, dominated the game with two goals and three assists, plus six shots on goal. That brings him up to 62 points in 64 games, a far cry from last season, but not a complete disaster. The question isn't about what to expect from Gaudreau for the rest of this season, but going forward. He turns 30 in the summer, but I'm not expecting drop off in the short term. Can he approach 100 points again? I have my doubts, but if Columbus is lucky enough to get Bedard, it can't be ruled out. Bedard would be the perfect compliment, and Fantilli wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. I was lower on Gaudreau than consensus so I don't have any of him this year, but there's always a chance that with his talent, he makes a huge difference over the last month. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
While the NFL steals the spotlight during Championship Week, the Rangers started the weekend blowing out two top teams in Seattle and Carolina. They scored six goals in both games to bring their winning streak up to five. While it was a group effort on Friday, Artemi Panarin stole the show on Saturday. The Breadman scored four goals and an assist with five shots and two PIM against Carolina, after dishing an assist against the Kraken. Gallant shuffled the lines after Tarasenko's arrival, with Vincent Trocheck and Jimmy Vesey playing with Panarin again, setting up two of his goals. It was Panarin's third three-point game in his last eight, as he starts to heat up. While he hasn't approached his point production of his first three seasons in New York, Panarin is still on pace for 90+ points. That shows what kind of floor he has and why he's worthy of an early draft pick every year. Despite lower shots and PIM/hits, even his below average year (by his standards) is a top 50 player. Who knows, Panarin could finish the season on a massive heater and finally get to 100 points. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
