It's safe to say that with his performance on Tuesday night, Nathan MacKinnon locked up his first Hart trophy. MacKinnon had a hat trick on ten shots with an assist and two PIM against the Wild. He's been clearly the #1 overall player in fantasy and will be ranked #2 for me going into next season. I've had MacKinnon ranked there in the past, and I've received some push back for it. Hell, I received some push back on having him #3 this season ahead of Draisaitl. I also did for having Kucherov #5 when his ADP was lower, but sometimes, it pays to be stubborn on the guys you believe it. Colorado is almost locked into playing the Jets in the first round, and I can't see to see Colorado's offensive juggernaut go against the defensive discipline and best goalie in the world for the Jets. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
It's coming down to the wire with two weeks left in the regular season. I'll give a quick rundown of things happening around the league that can help you on the margins. As a reminder, check out the Playoff Manifesto for all of your streaming planning. Additionally, for those of you in head to head leagues, remember that volume is key. You should be maximizing all of your moves / starts every week to get as many games played as possible from your skaters. If you plan right and get 5+ extra starts than your opponent does, it's much easier to overcome one of your guys getting cold, or one of your opponents' players getting hot. Let's get to it!
"Laf has had the big breakout this season, it just hasn’t been noticed because he doesn’t get real power play time." And that's me quoting me from last week copying what Grey does! Well, I think people have taken notice of Alexis Lafreniere after Saturday. Lafreniere had three goals and two assists with four shots in the 8-5 win over the Coyotes, with Lafreniere finishing +4. That brings him up to 25 goals and 27 assists while pushing towards three shots per game. As discussed previously, the Rangers schedule is awful for the last two weeks in terms of fantasy hockey usage, so I'm probably not holding him. That said, Lafreniere has to be considered now. In dynasties, it's a great reminder that even for #1 overall picks, it sometimes takes time. Lafreniere is still only 22 years old (will turn 23 by the start of next season), so the best is still to come. Where he will be ranked next season is a tough question, but it should be pretty high. Even in his current role, he's on the fringe. If he takes a spot on the top PP unit, whether it's replacing somebody or one of their four forwards get injured, we could be looking at Lafreniere pushing a point per game. It's safe to say that the bust label can go away now.
In honor of Opening Day in baseball, Filip Forsberg continued an elite season with a 40/40 of his own. Nashville is in the midst of their best run in franchise history with Forsberg leading the charge. On Wednesday, they fell down 3-0 against the other wild card team in the West, the Golden Knights, before the Preds stormed back to win 5-4 in overtime. Forsberg had a goal and two assists, scoring to make the game 4-3 Vegas, then assisting on the tying and winning goals. That brings him to 40 goals and 41 assists and into being the 10th overall forward in fantasy this season. There are a few different things that have caused Forsberg's big season that are different from two seasons ago, when he had 42+42 in 69 games. One, he's over four shots on goal per game. His current shooting percentage is right in line with his career average, unlike two seasons ago when he was running hot. Two, his time on ice is up a bit. Three, the coaching is much better with Brunette. Four, he's stayed healthy, the most important thing. Lastly, he's clicked with RoR, an elite defensive center who can hold his own offensively. This is letting Forsberg crush even strength while continuing to perform on the power play. Forsberg is still only 29 years old, giving us hope that he can repeat this season for the next 1-2 years. Just stay healthy! Let's take a look at some things that happened over the last two nights. A reminder that if you want to maximize your streaming, check out the entire Playoff Manifesto. Let's get to it!
It wouldn't be the first time that a Sabres trade acquisition got off to a hot start before flaming out, but this one looks different. Bowen Byram was a monster again on Tuesday, scoring two goals on four shots finishing +4 in the 7-3 win over the Red Wings. They'll have to win their next two games against the Islanders and Red Wings again, but the Sabres are creeping back onto the fringe of the playoff race. Byram's workload in his three games as a Sabre are that of a #1 defenseman, even if that honor goes to Dahlin. There's no doubting Byram's ability, and he's looking like a guy who can be a huge difference maker down the stretch this season and beyond. He's clear must own everywhere. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
While Friday was mostly quiet, there were a couple big moves along with some nice depth acquisitions. I'm going to cover those moves and give some first impressions on players with their new teams. Let's get to it!
Winnipeg acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Devils for second and third round picks. Toffoli didn't play on Saturday so we don't know exactly where he'll slot in, but I love this move for Winnipeg. With a healthy Toffoli and Vilardi, it's a loaded top six with good depth behind them. Toffoli is owned almost everywhere, so saying that he's a hold everywhere doesn't really change anything. The upside is undeniable, whether he plays with Scheifele and presumably Connor, or with Ehlers and Monahan. Going from the team with the worst goaltending to arguably the best should fix the plus-minus and the shot rate should stay at 3+. What will swing his value the most is whether he goes on the first power play unit. They have Connor, Scheifele and Morrissey as locks. Then you have two spots for Toffoli, Vilardi, Ehlers and Monahan. We should find out on Monday, although Vilardi being out increases his chances, especially because Bowness hates Ehlers for reasons unknown. I would bet on a big finish from Toffoli.
It’s been a long time since Kyle Dubas had to sell at the trade deadline, and it’s been even longer since the Penguins were sellers. This year, the team’s level of play clearly forced Dubas’ hand, and he had the #1 trade chip at his disposal. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The NHL Trade Deadline is Friday afternoon, and boy, did we have it kick into full gear on Wednesday. While the biggest name on the block wasn't moved (Guentzel), most of the other big names already moved. We also had a massive one for one hockey trade that makes a ton of sense for both sides. I'm going to look at all of the recent moves and talk about the impacts for both teams, from both the short term and long term. Let's get to it!
Oh, the irony of the timing. Right as Ryan Smith, owner of the Utah Jazz, puts out a release saying that he's ready to bring a hockey team to Utah, the Arizona Coyotes go on a 14 game losing streak. Over the weekend, they managed to right the ship. The Coyotes snapped their skid on Friday, beating Ottawa 5-3, before defeating the Capitals 5-2 on Sunday. The featured performance was their former 9th overall pick Dylan Guenther. Guenther had a goal and an assist with two shots on Friday before scoring a goal and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Capitals. Guenther playing over 18 minutes on Sunday was extremely encouraging. With Clayton Keller out, Guenther moved to the point on the first power play unit, and delivered three PPP over the two games. I've been a fan of Guenther's as a prospect and it looks like he's finding his game in the NHL. He's an elite streamer for the time being who you can hold for this week if you'd like. Arizona has four games, including two against the Blackhawks. In dynasties, I see a guy that eventually becomes a hold in all formats. I think he'll be a guy who gets three shots on goal per game on average, resulting in 25ish goals with upside for more with a good shooting percentage. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
A rare cold patch left Sam Reinhart sitting on 39 goals for almost three weeks. On Thursday, he reached the 40 goal mark for the first time in his career, and found another to get back to second in the league in goals. Reinhart scored two goals, one on the power play and one shorthanded, while also adding an assist with five shots in the 4-3 SO win over the Canadiens. Is this season sustainable for Reinhart? Definitely not while he's shooting over 25%. That said, he's in the perfect situation to be a point per game player going forward, assuming he stays in Florida. It seems likely he stays in free agency, but you never know if someone takes top dollar. Regardless, Reinhart certainly won't be in my top 20 next season like he is so far this year, but I expect him to be around 50th overall for me if he stays. He can counteract the crazy shooting percentage a bit by getting back to his usual shot rate, and Reino should remain elite on the power play. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
As a change of pace from my usual daily notes, I'm going to focus on one player on each NHL team whose value has changed recently, or could as the trade deadline approaches. Let's get to it!
In his last four games, Mason McTavish has four goals and three assists. His line has dominated despite Anaheim's overall struggles. McTavish is still available in over 50% of leagues, and if anything, his minutes should increase down the stretch once Henrique is moved out. I have confidence in McTavish becoming a top 50 player sooner than later, potentially next season. For now, I would definitely own him if your league doesn't have plus-minus. If it does, he's on the fringe.
There was a lot of craziness around the NHL on President's Day, but nothing topped the game in Minnesota. At one point late in the second period, the Canucks looked in complete control up 5-2. Two minutes and seventeen seconds of game time later, Minnesota was up 6-5. And if that wasn't enough, there were still six more goals! The Wild beat the Canucks 10-7, and to wash it down, they played a paltry 6-3 game on Tuesday, a loss to the Jets. Nothing like 13-13 aggregate over two nights. On Monday, it was all of the stars for the Wild, as those four goals in a 2:17 span were all on the power play, three of which were 5 on 3. Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov had three goals and three assists... each! Mats Zuccarello and Matt Boldy had a goal and three assists... each! On Tuesday, Kaprizov had a goal and an assist, while Marco Rossi had two goals on five shots. Both goalies were shelled, and right now, it's hard to trust either of them. For the moment, the Wild look like a four star team, Faber is a clear hold, and Brodin is on the fringe. Rossi is a solid streamer, and gamble if you'd like on their goalies. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
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