And we’re off! Today, we start our journey through my rankings with the Top 10 overall. For those of you that are new to these parts, my rankings focus on the offensive categories, namely goals, assists, shots, and special teams points. I assume that your league uses either hits or penalty minutes, but not both. Banger leagues could use this as a baseline and make the obvious adjustments. I will note those extreme cases in the writeups, along with those who always have elite plus-minuses that we can count on.
As far as general strategy goes, I will never take a goalie in the first two rounds, and pretty much never take one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance with goalies compared to skaters, who we can safely predict their offensive output. One or two of them may sneak into my Top 20, but like Grey for baseball, that doesn’t mean I would take them there. Whether it’s forwards or defensemen, you need to prioritze skaters. And with that, let’s get to the Top 10!
1) Connor McDavid – Just like last season, the top two players are McDavid and MacKinnon in some order. The decision between the two isn’t going to make or break your team, and it’s a true 50/50 decision for me.” And that’s me quoting me from last season, and it still holds true! McDavid’s shot rate jumped back up significantly, pushing towards four per game. He’s not in MacKinnon range, but McDavid is a good bet for 10+ more points. I ultimately settled on putting McDavid here because he’s an absolute cheat code in power play points. He had 11 more PPP than second in the league (Suzuki). I despite the Babcock hire, but he shouldn’t get in the way of the stars.
2) Nathan MacKinnon – MacKinnon had the best shooting percentage of his career, so it should come as no surprise that he set a career high with 53 goals in 80 games. He led the league in shots and plus-minus with a ridiculous +57. He’s been the best even strength player in the league for years now, full stop. I do feel like Colorado takes their foot off the gas a bit this regular season in comparison to last, and their roster is weakened a bit with some depth departures, plus Nichushkin at the top of the lineup. That said, similar to McDavid, it shouldn’t really impact MacKinnon. The floor is 110 points and the very high chance that he leads the league in shots for the fourth straight season. Some inevitable regression at even strength could also be balanced out by a bounce back in PPP, where he had his lowest total in four seasons.
3) Nikita Kucherov – This tier goes down to Draisaitl. Kucherov wasn’t that far off from leading the league in points for a third consecutive season. In an era where McDavid and MacKinnon exists, that’s absolutely absurd. He totaled 44+86 in 76 games, his third straight season with 121+ points. He crushes on the power play every season and had his best even strength season yet. Carlson should safely slide onto their top PP unit in Raddysh’s place, so no concern there. Kucherov will have two superstars on his line with him no matter who Cooper decides to play him with, so you can’t go wrong here. To be fair, you can’t really go wrong with any of this tier, but Kucherov feels like the best combo of safety and upside. The only knock is his shot rate is trending down a bit, although he’s still just above three per game, an elite rate
4) Macklin Celebrini – There’s an alternate universe where the Sharks acquire a #1 defenseman this summer and I feel good enough about bumping Celebrini to #3. However, I hated most of the moves that they made around Celebrini. He’s so good that it shouldn’t really hurt him too much, but it does hurt that they don’t have any defenseman that should be on a top power play unit. Celebrini took a huge leap last season to 45+70, a preposterous season for a 19 year old. In fact, he set the Sharks record for points in a season already. Celebrini maintaned a shot rate near 3.5 per game, which is the best of this tier. However, I expect him to finish with the lowest point total of the three. Perhaps Smith and Chernyshov improve enough around him that he can jump his points up, or Misa transcends the second line and PP that it makes life easier for Celebrini. I’m expecting a repeat of last season with perhaps incremental increases, but I’m not expecting a jump into the top tier.
5) Leon Draisaitl – Draisaitl missed 17 games last season, but was his usual fantastic-self, putting up 35+62 in 65 games. He was a bit below three shots per game, which is slightly concerning, and the Oilers didn’t dominate at even strength with Draisaitl on the ice like we’re accustomed to. That said, Draisaitl is a great bet to finish second in the league in power play points, and if he’s healthy, I think I’d project to finish second in goals? It’s been eight straight seasons that Draisaitl has played at well over a 100 point pace, so the floor clearly puts him here. If you look solely at the numbers, he looks like the slightly worse and riskier version of Kucherov, albeit with a few more goals. Celebrini vs. Draisaitl is an interesting debate that I ultimately settled on going for the younger player.
6) David Pastrnak – This is a one player tier. I couldn’t make a case for Pasta being in the top five, but I also couldn’t make a good case for anyone else to be ahead of him. Pastrnak had his fourth straight 100+ point season, setting a career high in assists with 71. He did fall down to 29 goals because of a drop in shot rate and his lowest shooting percentage in a decade. However, I fully expect him back in the 40’s. The addition of Peterka should be very good for Pasta, as his playmaking is a step up from everyone he played with last year. Pastrnak not having to carry the line entirely should allow him to get his shot rate back up. Even if Boston takes a step back as I predict, I think we get a better version of Pasta for fantasy. Also, his “down season” was still 8th for all skaters last season, so his floor is incredibly high.
7) Kirill Kaprizov – This tier goes from here until Robertson. I ultimately settled on Kaprizov because he’s incredibly safe. He’s played at a 40+ goal pace in all six seasons of his career, and for the past five, it’s been a 45+ goal pace. Last season, he did score 45, adding 44 assists in 78 games. His shot rate was elite once again. While the Wild didn’t add a top center this offseason, they still have Hughes on the blue line, which is a big help to Kaprizov on the power play. The track record gives him the highest floor, and a 100 point season is easily possible.
8) Cale Makar – Speaking of high floor, last season wasn’t Makar’s best, but he was still the third best defenseman overall behind Bouchard and Raddysh (lol). Twenty goals, over a point per game, and elite power play points are a lock for Makar. There’s certainly room for improvement on the power play to get him back into the 90+ point range. You can’t go wrong with the best defenseman in the league.
9) Jason Robertson – This isn’t the first time that I had Robertson ranked in the top ten, but it has been three years. After his massive 109 point season, he fell down to 80 points in each of the previous two seasons. Last season, Robertson surged to 45+51 and the elite shot rate came back. He was the #4 overall skater since he had the third most shots in the league and the fifth most special teams points. A few of the guys after him in my rankings have a slightly higher points floor, but Robertson has played every game for the past four seasons, making him incredibly safe with the chance to repeat last season’s top five finish. A bounce back from Rantanen wouldn’t hurt to make the Johnston-Rantanen line a bigger problem.
10) Quinn Hughes – This tier goes into the Top 20 overall, and quite possibly I debated who to put in this spot for far too long. I’ll be honest with you; I don’t feel comfortable ranking anyone else in the top 10. The dropoff here is massive, and while I strongly prefer a top 5 pick, the 6-9 range is infinitely better than 10-12 because the player I have ranked 18th, who would be a second round pick with Kaprizov, will be in the same tier as Hughes. I went into rankings expecting to put Werenski here, but the shots just aren’t enough to get him ranked here. Then, I thought about Boldy, but I kind of need to see him repeat as a 40+ goal scorer, especially if he’s separated from Kaprizov at even strength. Tenth felt too rich for Hagel or Guentzel, or a Tkachuk at this point. Necas as a top ten guy didn’t feel right even if he was last season. My debate ended up being between a bunch of defensemen. Dahlin hits all of the categories the best, Bouchard has the highest ceiling, Werenski’s shot rate laps the field on the blue line, and Hughes has the longest track record as a superstar.
Again, I sided on safety and put Hughes here, but I could easily see myself dropping him for Dahlin or Bouchard by the end of the preseason. After Hughes went to Minnesota, he had 5+48 in 48 games with 22 PPA and about 2.5 shots per game. His shooting percentage was quite low, making me think we can see some positive regression and Hughes can get into the low teens in goals. The power play points will be elite and there’s a real chance for 75+ assists here. I can’t understate how much I hate this part of the rankings, but for now, Hughes slides here. I must note that if you’re in hits leagues, Hughes needs to drop below the rest of these defensemen because he might not get ten hits in an entire season. In banger leagues, I’d probably slide Brady Tkachuk in here.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back with the rest of the Top 20 later in the week. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
