It wouldn't be the first time that a Sabres trade acquisition got off to a hot start before flaming out, but this one looks different. Bowen Byram was a monster again on Tuesday, scoring two goals on four shots finishing +4 in the 7-3 win over the Red Wings. They'll have to win their next two games against the Islanders and Red Wings again, but the Sabres are creeping back onto the fringe of the playoff race. Byram's workload in his three games as a Sabre are that of a #1 defenseman, even if that honor goes to Dahlin. There's no doubting Byram's ability, and he's looking like a guy who can be a huge difference maker down the stretch this season and beyond. He's clear must own everywhere. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's been a disastrous season for the Wild, and it's hard to imagine them digging out of this hole. Monday was a lone bright spot, both for the team and their oldest player. The Wild beat the Islanders 5-0, with Marc-Andre Fleury posting a 21 save shutout. The win gave Fleury the second most wins in NHL history, passing Patrick Roy. It's been a very up and down career for Fleury. He was incredible in the 2008 playoffs getting Pittsburgh to the finals. His most iconic moment clinched the Cup the year after. There were a handful of years right after that where his poor play was the reason the Penguins were eliminated early in the playoffs. They won a Stanley Cup with him as the backup. He also saved them the next year when Murray struggled early in the playoffs to lead Pittsburgh to back-to-back cups. He carried Vegas to the Cup finals in their inaugural season. That's how I'm going to remember MAF. There were too many down years for him to be in that inner circle of all-time goalies, and his best generally wasn't among the current elite, as evidenced by him being a Vezina finalist once in 20 seasons. However, when he was at his best, it was incredible to watch, and that will put him in the Hockey Hall of Fame sooner than later. For this season, Gustavsson is back, so I expect them to split the games fairly evenly. He's a streamer in good matchups for now, but like most goalies, MAF can turn into a hold sooner than later, or be complete unusable. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
When the Flames acquired Yegor Sharangovich and a third round pick for Toffoli, the consensus was the Flames didn't get nearly enough for Toffoli off a 34 goal season. Well, here we are at the midway point of the season, and Sharangovich has more goals than Toffoli. Sharagovich had a hat trick on six shots on Thursday in the 6-2 victory over the Coyotes. That gives him 17+30 in 42 games. The minutes have been through the roof lately, and Sharangovich has rewarded Huska with 6+5 and over three shots per game in his last ten appearances. His speed is an absolute weapon and he's starting to be a focal point on the power play. At the end of the day, Sharangovich is probably somebody who is on the fringe, but for now, he's a definite hold. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
For most of last season, Zach Hyman led the league in expected goals. By the end of the season, he had a career high with 36 goals, but didn't even sniff the league lead. This season, he's starting to finish at an elite level, resulting in him pushing towards the league lead in goals. Hyman had a hat trick on eight shots on Saturday, carrying the Oilers to a 3-1 win over the Senators. That gives Hyman 25 goals on the season to go along with 15 assists, a +13 rating, 32 PIM, and almost four shots on goal per game. He's been a top ten forward so far, and while I expect a bit of a drop off in the second half, I don't see much of one coming. That's how good Hyman has been. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It wouldn't be this Buffalo Sabres season if they didn't blow out an elite team after getting buried by a bottom feeder. The Sabres beat Toronto 9-3 on Thursday, becoming the first team in 40 years to score 9 goals in a game after conceding 9 in their previous game. Does this change my opinion on anyone on the Sabres? No, not really, they're just going to be an up and down team. The one notable thing is that Jack Quinn scored a goal on three shots with four PIM in his second game of the season. Quinn had a solid rookie season but suffered an Achilles injury in the offseason, setting back his sophomore season. It's encouraging that even with a fully healthy lineup, Quinn's line was getting plenty of usage. He's a middling streamer for now, but there's upside to an elite streamer this season, while Quinn has clear potential to be a permanent hold for years in dynasties. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's safe to say that we've reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore. Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3. Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend. Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest. He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game. The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high. In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand's ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron. He's at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player. At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fifth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume four. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
I was extremely bullish on Tyler Toffoli's fit with the Devils, even though he wasn't a lock to be on PP1. "Before last season, Toffoli had never topped 31 goals or 29 assists, so expecting a repeat for a guy entering his 11th season in the league seems farfetched. That said, it’s hard to pick a better spot to be in than New Jersey right now for even strength play. People were worried about Toffoli’s power play role to open, but it looks like the Devils are starting with the two balanced unit approach. Personally, I hate it, but it’s a big boost to the value of the guy who normally would be on PP2, which Toffoli looked to be. I’m all the way in." And that's me quoting me in my bold predictions saying Toffoli averages at least a point per game. He was off to a solid start, but he had his first big game on Tuesday. Toffoli scored a hat trick on six shots in a revenge game against the Canadiens. That brings Toffoli to 4+2 in five games with 4.5 shots per game. There's a real chance that he ends up as a top 50 player. Let's take a look at what else happened in the Monday game and the Frozen Frenzy.
Obviously you guys know that I've gone out of order with my rankings, but I had to get my Top 200 out there for everybody's drafts. If you've missed it, you can see those rankings here. Today, I'm going to show you the method behind the madness of my forward rankings. Part one will be out today, part two will be out tomorrow. I'm going to try and get a bold predictions post out on Monday as well, and then the season will be underway. As a heads up, I am going to be in London from Thursday until Tuesday. I will probably only get to the site once per day, but I will be sure to answer everybody's questions on all posts when I get the chance. Thanks for your understanding. And with that, the first half of my forward rankings.
The rich keep getting richer. The Boston Bruins acquired Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway from the Capitals on Thursday, sending draft picks and Craig Smith to Washington, and a pick to the Wild for retaining salary. I think this trade is far more interesting from the Washington perspective. They couldn't agree to a contract with Orlov, with the dispute being over the term of his next deal. Until a few days ago, it seemed farfetched that they would weaken their team for this season, but I actually think it's a smart move. Even if they snuck into the playoffs, they weren't going anywhere. They gained some additional ammo that they can flip in the offseason to make a push again next season. They have a lot of additional pending UFA's that could be on the way out, so it's hard to figure out who will be there in a week to benefit from this move. My guess is Trevor van Riemsdyk takes Orlov's spot on PP2, but he's also a UFA making 950k so he's a logical target for a lot of teams at that price, so he could be on the move too. Smith should crack the lineup, but I'm not expecting much at all. He's off the radar until we see him play. As for Boston, Orlov won't be getting PP time there with Lindholm holding down PP2, so he takes a slight hit to his value. The Bruins are so good that Orlov should stumble into enough points to be valuable in deeper leagues, but we're talking 14+ teams. Hathaway should do what he usually does, and that is pile up a bunch of hits and PIM with an okay goal rate for a fourth liner. All in all, this trade impacts real life more than fantasy. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Another big domino fell in the trade market on Thursday with Vladimir Tarasenko joining the Russian contingent in Manhattan. The Rangers also received Niko Mikkola, while giving up Sammy Blais, Hunter Skinner, a first round pick in 2023, and a conditional fourth round pick in 2024 that will almost certainly turn into a third (the Rangers need to make the playoffs for that to happen). The first round pick that the Blues get will be the lesser of the New York and Dallas first round picks. I'm a big fan of this move for the Rangers. A late round first for a quality rental is a solid price, they get to dump Blais in the deal, Skinner isn't much of a prospect, and they get some blueline depth with Mikkola. Tarasenko gets a boost in this trade, and potentially a big one. He'll almost certainly go on the opposite wing of Panarin, and if Zibanejad stays at center with Panarin, that's a great spot to be in. The big question is whether Tarasenko goes on the vaunted first power play unit in Trocheck's place. It's a different position than he's used to playing on the power play, but Trocheck isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Trocheck would be a big loser if Tarasenko does take that spot. We should get an answer on that tonight. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
This Nashville Predators team plays nothing like the style we've come to expect from them over the years. They're hemorrhaging chances left and right, especially against top competition. So needless to say, it was always going to be difficult for them to get a result in Carolina. Luckily for them, they have Juuse Saros. Saros had the second most saves in a non-OT game in NHL history on Thursday saving 64(!) shots in the 5-3 win over the Hurricanes. I bet over 30.5 saves for Saros, can I get paid double for him going over twice? Ha! It's going to be hard for Saros to improve in GAA considering the team in front of him, but he's been playing much better lately to the point where the save percentage should be an elite asset once again. Saros is still a #1 fantasy goalie, both for this season and in dynasties. Amazingly, despite making his debut seven seasons ago, he's still only 27 years old. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
