The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Opening night in Salt Lake City couldn't have gone any better for Utah HC. Dylan Guenther will go down in history after their first goal scorer, and he also sealed the game with an empty netter. Guenther picked up right where he left off last season with those two goals on five shots, playing over 16 minutes. To say I'm all in on Guenther is an understatement. Guenther's ADP was outside of the Top 200 while I had him ranked 96th overall. I'm a huge believer in his talent, and with Logan Cooley (2A, 3 SOG) as his centerman, I think we see fantastic seasons that elevate Utah into the playoffs. Let's take a look at what happened over the last three nights:
We wrap things up in these parts with my forward rankings. If you're looking solely for a draft board, then you can use my Top 200 here. If you want to know why guys are ranked where, and whether I like them or not based on where they get drafted, then this is the post for you. Let's get right to it!
It wouldn't be the first time that a Sabres trade acquisition got off to a hot start before flaming out, but this one looks different. Bowen Byram was a monster again on Tuesday, scoring two goals on four shots finishing +4 in the 7-3 win over the Red Wings. They'll have to win their next two games against the Islanders and Red Wings again, but the Sabres are creeping back onto the fringe of the playoff race. Byram's workload in his three games as a Sabre are that of a #1 defenseman, even if that honor goes to Dahlin. There's no doubting Byram's ability, and he's looking like a guy who can be a huge difference maker down the stretch this season and beyond. He's clear must own everywhere. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's been a disastrous season for the Wild, and it's hard to imagine them digging out of this hole. Monday was a lone bright spot, both for the team and their oldest player. The Wild beat the Islanders 5-0, with Marc-Andre Fleury posting a 21 save shutout. The win gave Fleury the second most wins in NHL history, passing Patrick Roy. It's been a very up and down career for Fleury. He was incredible in the 2008 playoffs getting Pittsburgh to the finals. His most iconic moment clinched the Cup the year after. There were a handful of years right after that where his poor play was the reason the Penguins were eliminated early in the playoffs. They won a Stanley Cup with him as the backup. He also saved them the next year when Murray struggled early in the playoffs to lead Pittsburgh to back-to-back cups. He carried Vegas to the Cup finals in their inaugural season. That's how I'm going to remember MAF. There were too many down years for him to be in that inner circle of all-time goalies, and his best generally wasn't among the current elite, as evidenced by him being a Vezina finalist once in 20 seasons. However, when he was at his best, it was incredible to watch, and that will put him in the Hockey Hall of Fame sooner than later. For this season, Gustavsson is back, so I expect them to split the games fairly evenly. He's a streamer in good matchups for now, but like most goalies, MAF can turn into a hold sooner than later, or be complete unusable. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
When the Flames acquired Yegor Sharangovich and a third round pick for Toffoli, the consensus was the Flames didn't get nearly enough for Toffoli off a 34 goal season. Well, here we are at the midway point of the season, and Sharangovich has more goals than Toffoli. Sharagovich had a hat trick on six shots on Thursday in the 6-2 victory over the Coyotes. That gives him 17+30 in 42 games. The minutes have been through the roof lately, and Sharangovich has rewarded Huska with 6+5 and over three shots per game in his last ten appearances. His speed is an absolute weapon and he's starting to be a focal point on the power play. At the end of the day, Sharangovich is probably somebody who is on the fringe, but for now, he's a definite hold. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
For most of last season, Zach Hyman led the league in expected goals. By the end of the season, he had a career high with 36 goals, but didn't even sniff the league lead. This season, he's starting to finish at an elite level, resulting in him pushing towards the league lead in goals. Hyman had a hat trick on eight shots on Saturday, carrying the Oilers to a 3-1 win over the Senators. That gives Hyman 25 goals on the season to go along with 15 assists, a +13 rating, 32 PIM, and almost four shots on goal per game. He's been a top ten forward so far, and while I expect a bit of a drop off in the second half, I don't see much of one coming. That's how good Hyman has been. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It wouldn't be this Buffalo Sabres season if they didn't blow out an elite team after getting buried by a bottom feeder. The Sabres beat Toronto 9-3 on Thursday, becoming the first team in 40 years to score 9 goals in a game after conceding 9 in their previous game. Does this change my opinion on anyone on the Sabres? No, not really, they're just going to be an up and down team. The one notable thing is that Jack Quinn scored a goal on three shots with four PIM in his second game of the season. Quinn had a solid rookie season but suffered an Achilles injury in the offseason, setting back his sophomore season. It's encouraging that even with a fully healthy lineup, Quinn's line was getting plenty of usage. He's a middling streamer for now, but there's upside to an elite streamer this season, while Quinn has clear potential to be a permanent hold for years in dynasties. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's safe to say that we've reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore. Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3. Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend. Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest. He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game. The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high. In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand's ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron. He's at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player. At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fifth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume four. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
I was extremely bullish on Tyler Toffoli's fit with the Devils, even though he wasn't a lock to be on PP1. "Before last season, Toffoli had never topped 31 goals or 29 assists, so expecting a repeat for a guy entering his 11th season in the league seems farfetched. That said, it’s hard to pick a better spot to be in than New Jersey right now for even strength play. People were worried about Toffoli’s power play role to open, but it looks like the Devils are starting with the two balanced unit approach. Personally, I hate it, but it’s a big boost to the value of the guy who normally would be on PP2, which Toffoli looked to be. I’m all the way in." And that's me quoting me in my bold predictions saying Toffoli averages at least a point per game. He was off to a solid start, but he had his first big game on Tuesday. Toffoli scored a hat trick on six shots in a revenge game against the Canadiens. That brings Toffoli to 4+2 in five games with 4.5 shots per game. There's a real chance that he ends up as a top 50 player. Let's take a look at what else happened in the Monday game and the Frozen Frenzy.
Obviously you guys know that I've gone out of order with my rankings, but I had to get my Top 200 out there for everybody's drafts. If you've missed it, you can see those rankings here. Today, I'm going to show you the method behind the madness of my forward rankings. Part one will be out today, part two will be out tomorrow. I'm going to try and get a bold predictions post out on Monday as well, and then the season will be underway. As a heads up, I am going to be in London from Thursday until Tuesday. I will probably only get to the site once per day, but I will be sure to answer everybody's questions on all posts when I get the chance. Thanks for your understanding. And with that, the first half of my forward rankings.
