Playing time has been the only thing that has stopped Alex Tuch from breaking out in the past.  It looked like he was going into the top six two seasons ago, but then the Golden Knights acquired Stone keeping Tuch on the third line.  Well, this season that has finally changed even though Stone is still on the team, mostly because the Karlsson line plays less minutes.  On Saturday, Stone left the game with a minor injury which led Tuch to being double shifted.  Even before that, Tuch was on a tear and it’ll only get better with his increased workload.  Tuch scored two goals on six shots on Saturday after scoring a goal on Friday.  That brings Tuch up to 12 goals in 21 games, an excellent mark.  Sure, his shooting percentage is unsustainable, but the increase in minutes could counteract that a bit.  Tuch is still available in over 40% of leagues, so if you’re lucky enough to be in one of them, grab him now.  Let’s take a look at what else happpened over the weekend:

Friday’s Games:

Brandon Saad – Goal and two assists with two shots.  He’s a solid streamer, but Saad’s poor shot rate leaves him nowhere near a hold.  Saad used to be around three shots per game, but now he’s below 1.5.

Valeri Nichushkin – Two goals on seven shots.  Big Val finally started to show some offense in this game.  He doesn’t have much use at the moment outside of deep leagues.

Jaroslav Halak – 31 saves on 32 shots in the 5-1 win over the Capitals.  Halak’s numbers are outstanding keeping him as an automatic streamer every time he starts.

Brad Marchand – Two goals and an assist.  Patrice Bergeron had a goal and an assist while Charlie McAvoy dished two assists.  Business as usual for the top guys on Boston, which now includes McAvoy with Krug’s departure.

Ondrej Palat – Two assists with four shots.  Palat has been an easy hold on the season, albeit on the bottom end.

Alex Killorn – Goal and an assist with eight shots.  Killorn has been playing on the second line which has caused a big boost in his value (he scored again on Sunday).  He’s an elite streamer at the moment that you can even argue holding while he’s a hot schmotato.

Alex DeBrincat – Two goals on five shots, both assists by Patrick Kane, who had six assists.  Nothing can stop these two right now.  They’re becoming the biggest surprise of this season.

Adam Boqvist – Two assists.  Boqvist is starting to play more again, including top power play time.  He has seven points in the last eight games, but the problem is that his shot rate is horrible, and he doesn’t have contribute in hits and blocks for those in that format.  If you need assists only, you can use Boqvist, but otherwise, I’d leave him on the wire for now.

Ryan O’Reilly – Three assists with two shots.  Nice resurgence for RoR in the shots department making him a top 100 player with ease.

David Perron – Two goals on four shots.  Perron has been outstanding once again this season as he hits all of the categories very well.  He could even finish as a top 50 player.

Mike Hoffman – Goal and an assist.  Hoffman is closer to the fringe than I expected, but I would still hold him for now.

Kaapo Kahkonen – 24 saves on 25 shots in the 5-1 win over the Coyotes.  Kahkonen has been excellent this season after playing far more than expected.  I expect Talbot to play a bit more than Kahkonen, but Kahkonen is still worth holding for now.

Marcus Foligno – Two assists.  He’s on a massive tear but I’m not buying in at all.

Mats Zuccarello – Goal and an assist with two shots.  Zuccarello started off hot and hasn’t cooled down.  With 13 points in 11 games, he’s worth holding until he cools off.

Jordan Greenway – Goal and an assist with two shots and two PIM.  Grenway has been a massive surprise with 18 points in 22 games.  I’m not fulling buying in, but if your league includes PIM, Greenway can be held.

Kirill Kaprizov – Two assists with three shots.  We’ve seen the shot rate jump up a bit lately which is a big help to Kaprizov’s overall value.

Max Pacioretty – Two goals and an assist with five shots.  Pacioretty’s season has been better than anything else he’s ever done.  He’s a good bet to finish as a top 20 player now.

Mark Stone – Two assists with two shots.  Stone has had all of the assists lately, but as mentioned in the opening, he left Saturday’s game.  The good news is that DeBoer said it was precautionary, so I’m assuming he’ll be back in the lineup on Monday.

Erik Karlsson – Two assists.  Having watched a decent amount of the Sharks lately, I have to say that Karlsson has looked a lot better in the past five games since returning from injury.  He’s shockingly become a fringe hold, but because of that recent play, I would hold him for now.

Saturday’s Games:

Scott Mayfield – Goal and an assist with four shots and two PIM.  Nice player in real life, but he’s only useful in deep leagues for hits and blocks.

Mathew Barzal – Goal and an assist with five shots.  This goal, my God.

Rickard Rakell – Goal and two assists with five shots.  With Rakell’s shot rate, he’s been on the verge of some positive regression.  That’s finally coming with nine points in the past five games.  He’s worth holding again right now if your league includes shots on goal as a category.  Otherwise, he’s an elite streamer.

Kevin Shattenkirk – Goal and an assist with four shots.  I expected a decent season from Shattenkirk, but he’s had a rough go of it.  Leave him on the waiver wire.

Adam Henrique – Two assists with a shot.  Henrique has also had a rough go of it.  Pass.

Troy Terry – Two goals on seven shots.  I like Terry as a player, but he’s still extremely inconsistent.  It could eventually be better, but for now, he’s a bottom end streamer.

Mikko Rantanen – Two goals on three shots with two PIM.  After a rough patch, Rantanen has thirteen points in his past nine games, and the shot rate has been much better.  This is the Rantanen that we expect.

Nazem Kadri – Two assists with a shot.  The minutes are up quite a bit with MacKinnon out of the lineup, but he’s an easy hold regardless.

Samuel Girard – Two assists with two shots.  Girard is a hold for now.  That’ll probably change when Makar returns, but he’s absolutely worth grabbing at the moment if he’s available.

Ryan Strome – Two goals on three shots.  Strome has been surprisingly good with Panarin out of the lineup, which I honestly did not expect.  He’s worth holding again.

Julien Gauthier – Two assists with a shot.  And there’s your annual Gauthier update!

Adam Fox – Goal and an assist with two shots.  Fox has been solid this season, although if you told me TDA would be out of the picture, I would have expected better.  He’s a solid #3.

Filip Chytil – Goal and an assist with two shots.  Chytil has been very good this season while in the lineup.  He’s pushing towards an elite streamer but it depends on his minutes moving forward.

Nathan Bastian – Goal and an assist.  Nothing to see here.

Jesper Bratt – Two assists with a shot.  Bratt has settled in as a bottom end streamer.  There’s some upside to improve his streamer level, but I can’t see a scenario where Bratt becomes a hold.

Scott Laughton – Two assists with a shot.  Laughton is a middling streamer despite his big minutes.

Travis Konecny – Goal and an assist with two PIM.  Konecny’s shot rate has completely fell off a cliff this season and I don’t understand it.  I’m still holding because the points are good enough, but it really needs to turn around.

Evgeni Malkin – Goal and an assist with two PIM.  After a dreadful start, Malkin has eleven points in the past ten games.  The shot rate is still disappointing, but at least Malkin is reaching the point where his season isn’t necessarily going to finish a disaster.

Sidney Crosby – Two assists, as did Jake Guentzel.  All of the assists came on the power play.  Pittsburgh is starting to surge and it starts with the top guys.  They’re hovering right around a point per game.

Brandon Tanev – Two assists with two shots.  Great asset in hits leagues, but useless otherwise.

Filip Forsberg – Two assists with three shots and two PIM.  We’re finally getting the big season from Forsberg that we’ve been waiting on.  He’s over a point per game pushing towards four shots per game.

Noel Acciari – Hat trick on five shots.  Acciari scored 20 goals out of nowhere last season, then was goalless in 14 games this season, then hat trick.  Pretty crazy.  Easy pass now.

Aaron Ekblad – Goal and an assist with four shots.  Almost all of the relevant Panthers had two points in this game, but I wanted to give some credit to Ekblad.  He has nine goals on the season leading all defensemen.  He’s finally coming into his own in his age 25 season.

Carey Price – 28 saves on 29 shots in the 7-1 win over the Jets.  Despite two strong starts in a row, Price is still at an .899 sv%.  I haven’t owned Price in years and don’t again, and don’t particularly want to now.   I would hold him if I did obviously, just noting that I wouldn’t target him in a trade or anything.

Tomas Tatar – Three assists with two shots.  Tatar has taken a step back this season, mostly because of the shot rate.  He’s on the fringe, but I lean towards elite streamer.

Brendan Gallagher – Two goals and an assist with three shots.  Gallagher is piling up the goals and shots just like he does every season.

Tyler Toffoli – Goal and an assist.  Toffoli is up to 15 goals on the season, making him the best offseason acquisition in the league.  Even better, he has Vancouver coming up this week which means a lot of revenge games.

Phillip Danault – Two assists with two PIM.  Danault has been okay in real life, but zero goals simply isn’t going to cut it in fantasy.  Easy pass now.

J.T. Miller – Goal and two assists with four shots.  He’s been playing center with Pettersson out and getting even more minutes.  He’s a hold regardless, but it’s nice to see the shots uptick at center.

Brock Boeser – Goal and two assists with two shots.  Superb season from Boeser who is at a point per game.

Bo Horvat – Goal and an assist with four shots.  Dr. Bo hasn’t been great, but he’s been good enough to still hold him.

Conor Garland – Goal and an assist with three shots.  Garland has slowed down, mostly in his shot rate, but it’s still worth holding.

Clayton Keller – Two assists with two shots.  Four game point streak for Keller who is starting to show signs of approaching his rookie year level again.  He’s on the fringe, but I lean towards holding.

Tyler Pitlick – Two goals on seven shots.  He’s on the second line right now, but there’s not much happening regularly.  That makes him a bottom end streamer at best.

Derick Brassard – Two assists with three shots.  Brassard is useless for fantasy at this point in his career.

Niklas Hjalmarsson – Two assists.  And there’s your annual Hammer update!

Roope Hintz – Goal and an assist with two shots after missing a game due to injury.  Nice to see Hintz back in the lineup.  He’s right on the fringe, although he’s arguably worth holding.

Jake Oettinger – 21 save shutout in the 5-0 win over Columbus.  The overall numbers are okay, mostly the GAA.  Oetinnger is a decent streamer, but I wouldn’t use him every time out.  Welcome to the Razzball Database!

David Perron – Goal and an assist.  Perron keeps on keeping on.

Brayden Schenn – Two assists with a shot.  Schenn has been above average across the board as we’ve come to expect from him over the past 5-6 years.

Anze Kopitar – Two goals and an assist with six shots.  Can we start giving Kopitar the credit he deserves?  He’s just really damn good.  He’s well over a point per game on this Kings team which is nothing short of amazing.

Alex Iafallo – Two assists.  Iafallo is an elite streamer while he’s on Kopitar’s wing and a bottom end one when he’s not.  It’s as simple as that.

Elias Lindholm – Two assists with a shot.  He’s arguably been the best fantasy asset on the Flames, or at least in the discussion with Tkachuk, which I did not see coming.  Props to Lindholm for finding another level to his game since arriving in Calgary.

Connor McDavid – Goal and two assists with five shots.  Nothing can be done to stop McDavid, except I guess by Toronto.

Kris Russell – Two assists with two shots and three blocks.  He gets a lot of blocks because he is bad at hockey and can’t get out of his own end.  That’s about it.  He doesn’t even play every game now, and he shouldn’t be playing much as is.

Kailer Yamamoto – Goal and an assist with two PIM.  Yamamoto has slowed down quite a bit, but he did finish the game playing with McDavid.  I’m not holding anymore, but if he sticks there, that could change quickly.

Marc-Andre Fleury – 24 save shutout in the 4-0 win over the Sharks.  Fleury has been as good as any goalie besides Vasilevskiy this year which shows you how ridiculous goaltending is.

Sunday’s Games:

Brock Nelson – Two goals on four shots.  Nelson has six goals in the past ten games as he’s starting to look like last season’s player.  I’m not holding yet, but he’s back to elite streamer status at the moment.

Yanni Gourde – Two goals and two assists with five shots.  Big game for Gourde, but the problem is that his role has decreased the last three seasons after the Lightning got even stronger.  He’s a solid streamer, but his upside is quite capped unless there’s a couple injuries.

Victor Hedman – Goal and an assist with four shots and two PIM.  Hedman has solidified himself as the top defenseman in fantasy.  He’s crushing all of the categories and shows no signs of slowing down.

Ondrej Palat – Goal and an assist with four shots.  As mentioned above, Palat just keeps rolling.

Mattias Janmark – Goal and an assist with three shots and two PIM.  Decent bounce back from Janmark in Chicago, but he’s a bottom end streamer at best.

Scott Wedgewood – 40 save shutout in the 1-0 win over the Bruins.  Huge game from Wedgewood, who for the most part, has had a shutout or an awful game.  He’s a desperation stream in almost all matchups.

Tuukka Rask – 24 saves on 25 shots as the tough luck loser.  It’s been disappointing for Rask with the bar as high as he’s set it.  However, he’s allowed one goal in three consecutive games and looks to have righted the ship.  The Bruins still haven’t played the Sabres this season, so yeah, it’s going to get better.

Sebastian Aho – Goal and an assist with three shots.  Aho’s shot rate and shooting percentage is down, which is a bad combo.  However, the shooting percentage is in line with before last season, which means this is probably who he is.  That means instead of a 46 goal pace, Aho will play in the low 30’s.  Even with that, he’s an elite player, but don’t expect last season’s level unless the shot rate jumps back up.

T.J. Oshie – Two assists with a shot.  Oshie is right on the fringe, but he’s on Ovechkin’s line at the moment so I lean towards holding.  It’s very questionable though.

Ilya Samsonov – 36 saves on 37 shots in the 3-1 win over the Flyers.  It’s nice to see Samsonov back on the ice.  This was his best game to date by a mile.  He’s definitely worth holding for the upside, but the range of outcomes are extreme, even more than a normal goalie.

Kasperi Kapanen – Goal and two assists with two shots.  Kapanen has been solid in his first season in Pittsburgh.  The shot rate keeps him from being a hold, but Kapanen is probably an elite streamer.

Evgeni Malkin – Goal and an assist.  Keep it going Geno!

Casey DeSmith – 23 saves on 24 shots in the 5-1 win over the Rangers.  DeSmith hasn’t been great, but still has 5 wins in 7 games.  The good news for him is that the Pens still have all their games against Buffalo.  DeSmith is an okay streamer, but things can change quickly in either direction with how the Penguins have played this year.

Filip Forsberg – Two assists with two shots.  Go Forsberg go!  It’s funny that this is happening when Nashville has taken quite the step back, but we don’t care.

Eeli Tolvanen -Goal and an assist with three shots.  Tolvanen has shown some signs of life this year, and it could get better after the deadline if Nashville trades some guys away.  I was a big fan a couple years ago of Tolvanen’s long term upside and I’m starting to believe again.  He’s a middling streamer for now, but I’m watching him closely.

Miro Heiskanen – Two assists with two shots playing over 32 minutes.  Heiskanen is up there for biggest disappointment of the season.  Klingberg did miss this game for personal reasons, but either way, I have to think he turns it around in the second half.  I’m holding or targeting him in trades.

Jason Robertson – Goal and an assist with two shots.  Bottom end streamer, although there’s a bit of upside long term.

Matthew Tkachuk – Two assists with two shots.  Tkachuk’s points are a bit behind what I had hoped for, but the PIM and shot rate remain outstanding.  I’m expecting some positive regression in the goals department going forward.

Three Point Challenge: We will do the Three Point Challenge on Tuesday.  No top 10 in the league in points.  We’ll change it up to the current top 10, which means no McDavid, P. Kane, Draisaitl, Matthews, Marner, Scheifele, DeBrincat, Kopitar, Boeser, and Huberdeau.  I have two correct picks, with Eli Man Penguin Boy, Veritas, and Shitwolf all having one correct pick.  I’ll go with Aho against the Predators.

That’s all for now guys.  We topped the previous high for words in a post during the season, over 3000!  I’ll be back on Wednesday per usual.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any questions, or give any suggestions below.  Thanks for reading, take care!

  1. ashtray says:
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    Nick Suzuki has really slowed down since his really strong start. Would you hold or drop him for streamers like Iafello, Chiasson, or Boqvist in a 12 teamer?

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      I still prefer him over those three guys. I’m not opposed to turning his spot into a streamer spot, but not for any of those three.

  2. Rich says:
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    This comment is not directed at you Viz, I respect your knowledge and insight very much. However, it gets old hearing fantasy “experts” saying things like “regression is coming” or that something is unsustainable. Of course a guy isn’t going to remain on a hot streak forever. But saying regression is “coming” is like saying the rain will stop. Of course it will stop, but when? Many players have career years, outliers when they sustain production beyond their norm for an entire season. And of course there are breakouts that are real. I remember when Rust first started being productive, every fantasy analyst was saying to sell. But he’s still productive a few years later. Okay, rant over.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      I get what you’re saying, I just think it’s worth noting for the big extremes, like Tuch shooting 27%, or Eichel shooting 3%. The point is that we don’t know, guys can defy it for a certain amount of time, but what they are doing now is unsustainable, and betting on it to be sustained in the way they are currently doing it is a mistake.

      I’ll use Rust as an example since you did. I was always a big Rust fan, admittedly I even liked him more than Guentzel as prospects. When he first came up, he was playing 12-13 minutes per game. Then, the minutes increased which was a great sign, but the shot rate decreased. You can see an easy path to him improving, but he was stuck for two years without PP time. Last season, everything clicks because of the following:

      1) big increase in ice time
      2) real PP time for the first time in his career
      3) shot rate drastically up
      4) unsustainable shooting percentage

      The reason I was much, much higher than consensus on Rust going into the season (over 50 spots in ADP) is because the first three were completely sustainable, and quite frankly, expected to be. We know guys who shoot as frequently as Rust did don’t shoot that high of a percentage, so we decrease his totals from last year a little bit, but keep them relatively in check, acknowledging that he may just end up being lucky again, but odds are, he sees a marginal decrease in goals. In his case this season, his numbers also exactly reflect that (if anything, he’s a little below expectation in goals, but well within margin of error).

      I could give details like this in every post, but when I’m writing frequently about the same players, I don’t feel the need to take the time too, I’d rather just point out quickly for people reading that either, “hey, something has to change for him to keep this up” or “hey, if he keeps doing this, it’s going to get better.” As nice as it would be, I don’t have the time to be writing 5k+ words three times a week to go into greater detail.

      I hope this explains well why I write it like that. Maybe a guy will have a horse shoe in his ass for a full season, but I want to predict the most likely outcome, one way or another.

      • The Harrow says:
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        for those that don’t get math you end up having people actually claiming say blackmon will end 2020 hitting .400 since he had been for a few weeks in july/aug.

      • Rich says:
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        That makes perfect sense, thanks for the reply.

        • Viz

          Viz says:
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          No problem Rich, thanks for the kind words in your original comment, it was much appreciated.

  3. JP says:
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    Hi!

    6 team points only leauge, drop atkinson, rust or hall for tuch?

    Drop Barrie or petry for ekblad?

    What do you think of eichel? The only way to go is up, right?

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Man, that’s tough, but I guess I just hold what you have over Tuch. You can make the case for Tuch over Hall, but I’m not quite going there yet.

      This one depends a bit on your point system, I can see a case for Ekblad over Barrie but it’s tough to say without knowing.

      Agree with you on Eichel, he’s too good of a player to shoot 3% forever, and despite the team crumbling before our eyes, he’s starting to show signs of breaking out (he looked the best he has in a while yesterday)

  4. Take flight says:
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    Great read Viz – what to do with Taylor Hall? 12 team with hits+blocks H2H

    And I’ll pick Hedman vs Det for 3 point challenge!

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Thanks! I depends what is out there on your waiver wire, but odds are I’d be stubborn and hold.

      I almost went with Hedman myself, I like the pick. Good luck!

  5. Gerald says:
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    VIz made the move traded samsanov for hart. Hope this plays out like were hoping lol

    This is a messed up league. somebody dropped Who would u drop out of these guys
    Goals asissts +/- PPP Sgots on goals hits
    logan coutore Gallagher Garland Konecy COutourier

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      I assume that’s supposed to say Aho? I guess I would drop Konecny? The shot rate is really bad right now and we’re talking such a high caliber of player here that he’s probably the weakest of the bunch.

  6. Hepcats13 says:
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    Yahoo Roto, 12 team:

    Dahlin or Muzzin ROS?

    Also, worth giving up first place for a time to bring the Maximum Projected Games down? All but goalies are in double digits. (strategy advice needed!)

    Thanks!

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Man, this is tough. Do you have plus-minus as a category? If you don’t, then Dahlin for sure, if you do, it’s close. I probably still lean his way as I think Krueger is going to get fired very soon and then the Sabres should open up offensively, but we know what we’re going to get from Muzzin. If you’re okay with no PPP but solid across the board, then go with him.

    • The Harrow says:
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      it doesn’t matter, just don’t run out of space before end of season. if over this does mean bench some of your worst players or players in worst matchups till you are back in line, but being a bit over isn’t bad, since possible injuries.

      • The Harrow says:
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        if you’ve got some bet that entails needing to “be in 1st for consecutive days” or something like that, then i guess don’t do anything.

  7. Chet says:
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    Thanks, Viz! I’ll take Stamkos vs DET for the 3.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      No problem! Good luck!

  8. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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    was going to go marchand @ NYI (legal now with this year top 10 list so far) but their D is quite good so point @ DET for 3 pt tues.

    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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      a whole period of sweating there for us plus some OT. like ackc vs 2’s on a 4 4 10 board (1 club), then the ak catches the jc on turn. bricks river though. deuces never looses. of course deuces cracked was once a very big site.

  9. dubjay says:
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    Hey Viz,
    Curious how you feel about T.Hall at this point. Hes almost droppable in 12 team redraft league. I have both Hall and Olofsson riding my bench all year. Olofsson has been pretty good but Hall is brutal. My LW postion has been my achilles heel all season.
    Right now I have
    RUST, OLOFSSON, KREIDER and HALL.
    TUCH is available as is R.HINTZ, T.MEIER. I have fallen behind in +/-, hits and goals lately so those are the categories that I am mainly targeting. Would you make any moves there?

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      He’s looked better lately, but he’s still in that group of guys you listed below. Tuch doesn’t really solve your hit problem but does the other two, same story with Hintz although the +/- is more of a question mark than Tuch, while Meier gives the hits, but he’s hurt at the moment and isn’t great at +/-. I guess I would either grab Tuch or hold Hall unless you really need the hits boost.

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