The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the seventh edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume six. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the second edition of JOT This Down!
It was so nice to have hockey back on the screens after so long without it. The NHL is in a really good place in terms of the level of talent in the league right now. In almost every game, you will see a jaw-dropping play or an unbelievable stat line, sometimes from someone you would have never expected it from. Take Brock Boeser for example (add him if he is somehow available), nobody could have predicted that on opening night, but you never know what will happen in the NHL. That’s why in a sport with a lot of luck and volatility, never get too upset if things don’t go your way. It’s a long season, and there’s always next week to bounce back. Treat it as a hobby and have some fun.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the first edition of JOT This Down!
For those who do not know me, my name is Julian Tarevski (Jules) and I am a fantasy sports content contributor from London, Ontario. (I may be an Ontarian but please do not assume I am a Maple Leafs fan.) I will be here every week with a newsletter, think of it like a message to start your Monday and help you prepare for your weekly matchup. I will cover notable line changes, guys who jumped up on the top powerplay unit, category fillers to watch, and sleepers to stream with favorable schedules.
If you didn’t see Part One, you can check it out here. My big takeaway from doing these rankings is that goaltending gets ugly fairly quickly. It’s going to be difficult to get a #2 that you feel safe with unless you reach for goalies early. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Devils have built arguably the best young core in the league. There's a lot of talk about Hughes and Hischier leading the way now, with Nemec and L. Hughes on the way. There's Meier and Bratt also playing a huge role. However, there's another former first round pick making a huge charge in his sophomore season. Dawson Mercer scored a hat trick on Tuesday in the 5-1 win over the Penguins. I had to do a double check because I did not realize this, but Mercer now has 27 goals on the season. I knew he was having a good year, but man, that's a huge jump for the 21 year old. Mercer is a natural center, but with the two former #1 picks in the fold, there's no reason to put Mercer on the third line right now. He's thriving on Hischier's wing, and is definitely worth a middle to late round pick in drafts next season. I'm not sure how much better it will get other than a potential increase in ice time because his skating is below NHL average, but his playmaking in traffic is so good and his compete level is so high that incremental increases help a lot to get into the 70 point range. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We've reached the final three weeks of the season, with every team having 8-10 remaining games. Unlike last season, there are plenty of races to be decided, both for the playoffs and the lottery odds, which makes things much more interesting. In this post, I'm going to give some additional schedule info to pair with the Playoff Manifesto, along with some injury news. This is a reminder that now is not the time to hold anybody that is going to miss multiple games. Volume is everything, and you can't afford to hold anyone missing games. Two games from say, Marchand, isn't as good as four games from someone like Verhaeghe. Be aggressive. Anyways, I'll start with the injuries before looking at the schedule. Let's get to it!
The rich keep getting richer. The Boston Bruins acquired Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway from the Capitals on Thursday, sending draft picks and Craig Smith to Washington, and a pick to the Wild for retaining salary. I think this trade is far more interesting from the Washington perspective. They couldn't agree to a contract with Orlov, with the dispute being over the term of his next deal. Until a few days ago, it seemed farfetched that they would weaken their team for this season, but I actually think it's a smart move. Even if they snuck into the playoffs, they weren't going anywhere. They gained some additional ammo that they can flip in the offseason to make a push again next season. They have a lot of additional pending UFA's that could be on the way out, so it's hard to figure out who will be there in a week to benefit from this move. My guess is Trevor van Riemsdyk takes Orlov's spot on PP2, but he's also a UFA making 950k so he's a logical target for a lot of teams at that price, so he could be on the move too. Smith should crack the lineup, but I'm not expecting much at all. He's off the radar until we see him play. As for Boston, Orlov won't be getting PP time there with Lindholm holding down PP2, so he takes a slight hit to his value. The Bruins are so good that Orlov should stumble into enough points to be valuable in deeper leagues, but we're talking 14+ teams. Hathaway should do what he usually does, and that is pile up a bunch of hits and PIM with an okay goal rate for a fourth liner. All in all, this trade impacts real life more than fantasy. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We had a game of the year performance on Monday night by Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck saved 50 of 51 shots in the 4-1 win over the Rangers, ending their winning streak. One of my best rankings this season over ADP was banking on Hellebuyck to bounce back after last season's disaster. I even said in my bold prediction that he'd win the Vezina, which Ullmark will probably ruin, but his season has certainly been Vezina worthy. But enough of patting myself on the back. Hellebuyck is sitting with a 2.39/.926, putting him in a battle with Oettinger for the #2 overall goalie to this point (the gap to #4 is massive). He's as good of a bet as any to finish the best goalie for the rest of the season considering the top end volume. Bottom line, Hellebuyck is entering his prime now and since he gets to play in a Bowness system, he should stay in tier one for the indefinite future. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Ottawa had much higher hopes this season than sitting barely above .500. They are playing better hockey lately, going 7-3 in their last ten, following two straight wins to open the week. Ottawa had a massive comeback on Monday, scoring twice in the last 2:14 before winning in overtime against Calgary, 4-3. They found a great performance from a goalie making his NHL to earn a 3-2 SO win over the Islanders on Tuesday. Offensively, they were carried by Tim Stutzle. Stutzle had a goal and three assists with three shots and two PIM on Monday and then a goal and an assist with three shots and two PIM, plus the shootout winner, against the Islanders. The minutes are massive right and he's rewarding D.J. Smith by playing at a 40-50 pace. Amazing stuff from someone who just turned 21 years old. The shot rate has been trending in the right direction for months so while he's a clear top 50 guy now, the debate is how high he should be ranked in dynasties? He's not in that top tier, but he's probably in the tier right behind it. Stutzle's offensive upside has true superstar value. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Another big domino fell in the trade market on Thursday with Vladimir Tarasenko joining the Russian contingent in Manhattan. The Rangers also received Niko Mikkola, while giving up Sammy Blais, Hunter Skinner, a first round pick in 2023, and a conditional fourth round pick in 2024 that will almost certainly turn into a third (the Rangers need to make the playoffs for that to happen). The first round pick that the Blues get will be the lesser of the New York and Dallas first round picks. I'm a big fan of this move for the Rangers. A late round first for a quality rental is a solid price, they get to dump Blais in the deal, Skinner isn't much of a prospect, and they get some blueline depth with Mikkola. Tarasenko gets a boost in this trade, and potentially a big one. He'll almost certainly go on the opposite wing of Panarin, and if Zibanejad stays at center with Panarin, that's a great spot to be in. The big question is whether Tarasenko goes on the vaunted first power play unit in Trocheck's place. It's a different position than he's used to playing on the power play, but Trocheck isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Trocheck would be a big loser if Tarasenko does take that spot. We should get an answer on that tonight. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's remarkable that Boston started off the season 19-0-3 at home, securing a point in all 22 games. That streak ended on Thursday with the red hot Kraken in town. Earning their 7th straight win, Seattle won 3-0, with Martin Jones posting a 27 save shutout. The numbers for Jones aren't great, a 2.68 GAA that is decent and a .898 sv% which is quite the negative. However, in spite of those numbers, Jones has won 20 games, having started 27. When only Ullmark and Hellebuyck have more wins than you, that's quite the value boost. That is an incredible win rate, and why he has to be held everywhere. It's probably only #3 worthy, although you can make a case he's a #2 and certainly has #2 upside. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
