The Senators have been a disappointment this season despite their big forward acquisitions in the summer. Turns out that you can’t get away with completely ignoring the blue line and being forced to give bad players big minutes. Anyways, we don’t care about that for fantasy, we care about their scoring, and their top players have largely delivered. Claude Giroux had a great weekend, totaling three goals and two assists with ten shots over two games. Giroux is having his best goal scoring season since his monstrous 34 goal, 102 point season in 2017-18. Unsurprisingly, that season and this season are Giroux’s two highest shooting percentages, but it seems a bit more sustainable in this environment in Ottawa. Even with an inconsistent PP1 role, Giroux has still played his way into being a bottom end hold in all formats. The one problem is that after Ottawa’s game on Tuesday, they don’t play again until February 11th. My biggest point here with bottom end holds over these bye weeks is that you need to know your league format and whether the waiver wire is strong enough that you can drop someone like Giroux to get more games. In head to head leagues, volume is king, so you can make a case after Tuesday that you can let him go for players with a bunch of games after the All-Star break. In roto, I would hold onto Giroux without hesitation. Let’s take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Mikey Eyssimont – Goal and two assists with two shots. Eyssimont has been playing well since being claimed by the Sharks. He’s currently on the second line with a great shot rate and decent points. It’s only a bottom end streamer for 12’ers, but he should be on the deep league radar.
Mario Ferraro – Goal and an assist. Ferraro was decent in real life when the Sharks were better, but now, there’s nothing here.
Sebastian Aho – Two goals on nine shots. Martin Necas had two goals on five shots, while Andrei Svechnikov dished two assists, adding five shots. The big guns saved the day for the Canes, scoring twice in the last 1:37 after the Sharks scored an empty netter to go up two with under 2 left. Obviously it doesn’t apply to these stars, but Carolina does have a Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back this week when almost nobody plays. Best streaming team this week.
Ilya Sorokin – 23 save shutout in the 2-0 win over the Red Wings. Even after a rough patch, Sorokin is sitting at 2.38/.923, Clear #1 option.
Brock Nelson – Goal and an assist with three shots. The Nelson line is the only one scoring lately, with Kyle Palmieri setting up both goals, the other by Anders Lee. Nelson is a clear hold, Lee is on the fringe, while Palmieri is a solid streamer while he’s playing well.
Jaroslav Halak – 33 saves on 34 shots in the 4-1 win over Vegas. Halak’s starts are few and far between, but he only allowed one goal in each of the last three. In good matchups, I’d stream him, but I wouldn’t in two weeks when he’ll face either Seattle or Carolina.
Vincent Trocheck – Goal and an assist with three shots. Everything has been trending in the wrong direction for Trocheck. I’m in the elite streamer camp now, close to the fringe, but I wouldn’t hold him in 12’ers unless it’s a hits league.
Braden Schneider – Two assists with two shots. I like what I’m seeing from Schneider long term, but that’s not really any value here at the moment.
Brady Tkachuk – Two goals on four shots and two PIM. Tkachuk is doing even better offensively this season, but the plus-minus remains a clear negative. You have to take the bad with the good, and there’s a lot of good.
Tim Stutzle – Two assists with three shots and two PIM. The breakout is upon us with Stutzle sitting at a point per game. Again, the plus-minus is ugly, but Ottawa is dominating on the power play.
Adrian Kempe – Goal and an assist with four shots. Kempe is on the fence between elite streamer and on the fringe, but I wouldn’t really consider holding him.
Carter Verhaeghe – Goal and an assist with five shots and two PIM. Verhaeghe has been fantastic despite the lack of top PP time. He’s a bottom end hold.
Matthew Tkachuk – Two assists with seven shots. Tkachuk has been worth the first round valuation I gave him in non-hits leagues. He’s been the #3 overall skater behind McJesus and Pastrnak.
Jack Hughes – Two goals on four shots. Remember when Hughes was on the struggle bus as a rookie? His second season wasn’t that great either. Now, only two years later, he’s one of the best players in the league at 21. A 50+50 season is firmly in play. With his shot rate, he’ll be in the discussion for the Top 10 next year.
Kirill Marchenko – Two goals on three shots. Having watched a few Columbus games lately, Marchenko is standing out on a regular basis. Amazingly, he has 0 assists in 27 games, but 13 goals is amazing. His shooting percentage is wildly unsustainable, but the shot rate has increased the last couple weeks. He’s a solid streamer for now, but there’s higher upside in dynasties.
Bo Horvat – Four assists with a shot. The goals have dried up a bit, but there was no way Horvat was going to keep up that pace. Where he ends up at the deadline could swing his value quite a bit. Moving onto another elite PP would be ideal.
J.T. Miller – Two assists with seven shots and two PIM. Miller seems to be shooting more since Tocchet took over. That could be a result of playing Chicago and Columbus, but it’s worth monitoring.
Brock Boeser – Two assists with a shot. Boeser is a solid streamer, but he’s the odd man out on PP1 right now so I can’t see that getting better. His value could also swing if he’s moved at the deadline.
Elias Pettersson – Two goals. The goals aren’t quite as good as I predicted in my bold predictions (I’ll be looking at those in a post shortly since the schedule is so light this week), but Pettersson has been excellent. If anything, he’s been a bit unlucky. I’m a huge fan.
Quinn Hughes – Goal and an assist. Hughes is an elite #2 who is the perfect trade target if you need assists and PPP.
Elias Lindholm – Goal and two assists. Lindholm’s 42 goals last season were always going to be an outlier, but it’ll take a heater for him to even get to 30. The good news is that the assists are excellent again. It’s on the fringe, but I’m holding for upside.
Blake Coleman – Goal and two assists with five shots. Coleman has been on a nice run lately, but that’s only enough for him to get to middling streamer given the lack of PP time.
Mikael Backlund – Two assists. Another middling streamer, although you can argue he’s one step above that given the shot rate has pushed to three per game.
Tyler Toffoli – Goal and an assist with three shots and two PIM. Toffoli remains on the fringe, leaning towards bottom end hold because he hits all of the categories fairly well.
Logan O’Connor – Two assists with three shots and four PIM. I really like O’Connor as a bottom six forward in real life, but he doesn’t give us anything in fantasy.
Aleksander Barkov – Goal and two assists with four shots. Barkov stole two points for Florida, tying the game with 3 seconds left before setting up Reinhart for the OT winner. Barkov has an 11 game point streak as he tries to will the Panthers back into the playoffs. His shooting percentage is low based on his standards so we can expect better going forward.
Anton Forsberg – 28 save shutout in the 5-0 win over the Canadiens. “Forsberg should get the next three games. Toronto tonight isn’t too appealing, but the other two are against Montreal. Great streaming spot.” And that’s me quoting me from Friday! Well, he was a fine streamer against Toronto too, so it was even better than I hoped. Still holds true for the second Montreal game.
Nick Holden – Two assists with a shot. What did I say about too many minutes for defensemen who shouldn’t be in the league? And there’s your annual Holden update!
Logan Couture – Two goals and three assists with five shots. Couture still has games like these in his back pocket, but it’s only elite streamer level. The plus-minus is brutal and his shooting percentage is a bit high.
Alexander Barabanov – Goal and two assists. Solid streamer while he’s on PP1.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Two assists with a shot. No. Just no.
Erik Karlsson – Goal and an assist with two shots. Fifty assists already. Fifty! What an animal.
Evgeni Malkin – Two goals and an assist with two PIM. Malkin is currently -7, but we’ve come to expect a below average plus-minus from him. The points are still excellent, and he’s staying healthy. That’s the important thing.
Sidney Crosby – Goal and an assist with three shots. Can’t stop, won’t stop. Ageless wonder.
Nick Perbix – Three assists. Perbix has performed fairly well as a rookie. It’s amazing how many guys the Lightning churn out through Syracuse. There’s some deep league value here.
Brayden Point – Goal and an assist with two shots. I feel like it’s gone completely under the radar that Point has 29 goals already. Point being back to this level is massive for the Lightning’s playoff hopes.
Carter Hart – 40 save shutout in the 4-0 win over the Jets. It’s a shame that Hart isn’t on a better team. A .911 sv% is a miracle behind this defense. The upside is so high on a nightly basis that he has to be held as a #3. Just know that the downswings can be rough.
Rasmus Ristolainen – Two assists. Risto has seven points in the last seven games after having two in his first 37. I still can’t believe they effectively traded a first and two seconds to get him, considering the second they had to use to dump Ghost so they could fit his salary.
Owen Tippett – Goal and an assist with four shots and two PIM. Tippett has played fairly well for Philly, to the point that he’s a middling streamer.
Noah Cates – Goal and an assist with two PIM. Cates is being trusted with a bigger role by Torts, but it’s still only bottom end streamer worthy.
Semyon Varlamov -44 saves on 45 shots in the 2-1 OT win over Vegas. Varlamov is sitting with a very strong .917, winning 9 of 16 starts. The volume is low because of Sorokin, but he’s worth streaming in most starts. In roto leagues, I can see the case for holding him with your starts limit. In H2H, it’s too irregular to hold.
Patrick Kane – Two assists with three shots. Kane is a solid streamer in H2H, closer to a hold. He’s unusable in roto until he gets traded because of the plus-minus.
Taylor Raddysh – Goal and an assist. Raddysh has put up decent stats as one of the guys playing a bigger role than he should because of a terrible team. He’s a bottom end streamer.
Zach Hyman – Goal and two assists with three shots. And just like that, Hyman is a top ten forward on the season. He leads the league in expected goals, thanks a lot Connor McDavid (1+2, 6 SOG). Props to MarmosDad for picking him in the Three Point Challenge!
Darnell Nurse – Three assists with three shots and two PIM. Nurse has put up respectable points given the lack of PP time. That said, we hold him for his other contributions, and those remain great. He’s an ideal #3.
Leon Draisaitl – Goal and two assists with three shots. A ho-hum 130 point pace for Draisaitl this year. The even strength goals are down quite a bit, but he has an absurd 36 PPP already. He’s a full blown offensive superstar.
Tyson Barrie -Two goals on four shots. He’s managed to keep his PP1 role from Bouchard longer than I ever expected. Barrie is an easy hold everywhere because of that.
Philipp Grubauer – 24 saves on 25 shots in the 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. Grubauer has been good on all four of his starts in January. I could see a slight uptick in his starts going forward, but I’m certainly not rushing to pick him up.
John Gibson – 33 saves on 34 shots in the 2-1 OT win over the Coyotes, outdueling Connor Ingram (43/45). If you need starts, Gibson will give them to you, just don’t expect anything good on a regular basis. Ingram is even more desperation than Gibson.
John Klingberg – Two assists with three shots and two PIM. Klingberg was noticeable in this game, but I think that says more about Arizona than Klingberg. I wouldn’t own him now, but if I needed PPP, I’d look to grab him closer to the deadline.
Frederik Andersen – 24 saves on 25 shots in the 4-1 win over the Bruins. We know that Andersen is going to be elite if he stays healthy, he just needs to stay healthy. Thankfully, he was fine after the injury scare last week.
Ilya Samsonov – 23 saves on 24 shots in the 5-1 win over the Capitals. A nice easy revenge game for Samsonov. Somehow, Samsonov is still available in over 25% of leagues. We don’t know how long that Murray will be out, but either way, Samsonov has been good enough to hold.
John Tavares – Two assists with a shot. Tavares was an easy hold anyways, but he gets a bigger boost with Matthews out.
Michael Bunting – Goal and an assist with five shots. Bunting gets the biggest boost with Matthews out, as his PP1 spot is secure. He was probably a hold already since most people need what he provides, but now it’s a no doubter.
Three Point Challenge: With only six total games this week, I’m going to allow you to pick anyone over the next three nights for three points. If it’s a Carolina player, make sure you note whether your pick is for Tuesday or Wednesday. You can’t pick McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Thompson, Robertson, Karlsson, M. Tkachuk, Rantanen, or Hughes. I’ll go with Connor tonight against the Blues.
That’s all for now guys. Given that there’s only one game tonight, three on Tuesday, and two on Wednesday, I’m not sure when I’ll be back. If there’s enough for me to write about on Wednesday after those four games, I will. If there’s not, I will on Thursday. I will plan on having a review of my bold predictions to see where they stand on Friday, and then an updated hold/stream list for Monday before the action picks up again. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
12 tm h2h pts for ROS
GA(-1), S(0.2), SO(3), W(5) – Comrie, Delia, A.Forsberg, Markstrom, Raantan, Vladar – Pls rank top 2
Always big THANKS!!
Stutzle vs MON for 3
Sorry, could you pls make it top 3 – thanks!
So I don’t want anything to do with Delia, and Comrie is barely getting any game time, so right now I can’t have him top 3. So I’m between the other guys. It pains me to keep Markstrom 1, but Forsberg’s GAA is even worse than his, Raanta doesn’t get volume, and neither does Vladar. I think Raanta is 2 because his starts from a wins perspective is so much better. Forsberg vs Vladar comes down to whether you want more starts, or you want the Flames duo. We don’t know how long Talbot is out for, so I’d lean Forsberg, especially because you aren’t getting volume from Raanta, but can go either way.
Viz! Patience is thin with Markstrom this season…shame.
Yahoo H2H 12 team, W, GAA, Sv%, SHO are the categories.
Bobrovsky (IR), Skinner (DTD), Copley, Gustavsson, Montembeault, Raanta, Stauber (I know, but 2 good games in a row!), DeSmith are the options.
Drop and pick up one above, stream ROS, or hold?
I’m still holding versus those options. I would have made a Gustavsson case, but MAF just started three games in a row which is quite discouraging. If you get closer to the playoffs and need the help to ensure you make it, then I’d turn it into a stream spot.
Thanks for the Hyman shout, Viz!
Going to see if Giroux can keep it going against the Habs tomorrow. I’ll take him Tuesday in Montreal for 3.
Of course! Sounds good
jan 28th: crosby vs SJ
jan 31st: aho vs LA
Eichel and Forsberg or Kucherov and Kempe?
League is categories, so G, A, PPP, SOG, Hit, and +/-
Give me the Kucherov side, the gap from him to Eichel is massive at this point and Forsberg doesn’t bridge that gap.
What do you think about stashing Vejmelka Viz?
I have no idea if the Yotes are even rumored to be shopping him but you have to think if he played on a better team his results would vastly improve
It sounds like it would take a crazy offer to get him so I don’t expect Vejmelka to get moved. I don’t really see a fit for that type of trade to happen unless it’s the Kings. I do think he’s a very good goalie, he’s a top 10 goalie this season by most advanced metrics. I could see it very close to the deadline just in case, but as of now, I’m not expecting a trade.
Do you think the eventual return of Duclair will hamper Montour’s value at all Viz ?
I feel like Maurice may split his top D men to have two balanced PP lines, but I don’t watch Florida too often or follow Panthers twitter.
I’m guessing since we haven’t seen Duclair with Maurice, but I’d be pretty surprised if it hurt Montour. I don’t think it’s smart to have 2D on the same unit anymore, but Maurice hasn’t even tried to separate them. Verhaeghe is simply better than Duclair, and he hasn’t received a chance. Now, I can be wrong on this. I can’t really explain Maurice’s PP decisions; he didn’t have Ehlers on PP1 almost his entire time in Winnipeg for reasons unknown. He’s simply not a good coach and the change from Brunette is really hurting Florida.
Now, I do expect Montour to fall off a bit considering the PIM is a massive outlier and Ekblad missed a chunk of time earlier in the season, but I still think Montour can be a top #2 or even bottom end #1 fantasy D for the rest of the way.
yeah i was wondering just how FLA has that record (yes ekblad was out a while, as was barkov a few times), but good night their goals against per game is almost as bad as MTL’s! was expecting to see them with some amount of bad luck on goals for vs against, but nope.
Hey Viz, hope you had a nice weekend
If you recall, I asked you about this trade last week:
“Aho, Rantanen, and Trouba
Jack Hughes, Elias Lindholm, and Schenn
G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits are the categories”
The other owner countered with the same deal, except with Montour instead of Schenn.
Montour has been so good to me this year, do you still think it’s worth my while ?
Thanks, hope you did as well! This definitely makes things more complicated. The points are so poor for Trouba that he’s really only for hits, and a big detriment otherwise. I know you need hits so that’s what I’m weighing. You’re still upgrading from Hughes to Rantanen and Lindholm to Aho in this deal, but now you end up losing total goals and assists in this trade and especially PPP since Montour has 18 and Trouba has 2. Trouba’s also devalued a bit when you still would have Schenn on your roster, so I would slightly lean towards saying no, but I don’t feel strongly about it at all.
Thanks for the thorough look over Viz.
Basically if I accepted this deal, I’d have a D core of Dougie Hamilton, Noah Dobson, Schenn, and Trouba. So I’d have two PP1 guys still, but the other two would just be giving me hits and shots (Schenn only hits). Plus Dobson has been hurt past while so he’s a bit of a question mark.
I guess I’m just enthralled by the idea of rostering Rantanen, Kucherov, and Pastrnak !
I sold high on Sergachev with Hedman’s resurgence, and it’s been the right move so far. Guess I have confirmation bias with trading Sergachev and thinking Montour will pan out the same
I mean, right now, Montour is the #3 defenseman on the season. I don’t see much chance of him keeping that up, but I don’t see a Sergachev level of dropoff either. That would be crazy forward talent so I wouldn’t blame you for doing it either
hey viz whasup bro
what are your thoughts on gustavasson. minnesota skipped a couple starts. you think i should drop him for forsberg. wire is thin for goalies
10 team league minimum 3 starts. wins losses GAA Save % shutouts are cats
also do you have any buy low suggestions for 2nd half?
It’s hard to say how long Talbot has been out, but if you need more help short term, I’m good with grabbing Forsberg.
I’ll get back to you on that, I’ll probably dig into that during the All-Star break
Since the all Star break is coming up I’m gonna sit tight …
Horvat just got traded to Islanders
For a first bevilier and ratu
You think boeser goes to Power play 1?
I have a full post on this trade and its ramifications that will be out late tonight / early AM. Short answer to that is yes
Viz always on top of the button thanks bro
Haha I do what I can! Good timing for me to be able to do a full post on a trade with the light schedule this week.
Evander Kane or JT Miller ROS Viz ?
Cats in my league are G, A, PPP, SOG, Hit and +/-
Evander for me fairly easily. You’ll lose on assists and PPP, but it’s a big gain in the other four spots.