Last season, the Ducks finished the regular season as the top seed in the Western Conference.  This year, every team has at least 2 wins so far in the West except the Ducks, who are 1-5-2 through the first 8 games after a 1-0 OT loss to Chicago on Monday.  Through 6 games last year, Corey Perry scored 8 goals.  This year, through 8 games, the Ducks have 6 total goals (Perry has none), including being shut out a whopping 5 times.  Am I concerned?  To be honest, not that much for the Ducks or Perry.  The Ducks have been consistently outshooting teams, including a great Chicago team by a Corsi (all total shots) 60-47.  Perry also had 8 shots on goal on Monday and was +11 in Corsi, meaning the Ducks had 11 more shot attempts than they gave up when he was on the ice.  The Ducks are shooting close to 3% on the season as a team which is completely unsustainable.  Bottom line, expect the Ducks to break out of their slump soon and in a big way.  With the 3 game slate on Monday, I’m also going to cite Corsi statistics for individual players on Monday to give a better indication on how their team did when they were on the ice.  As a disclaimer, Corsi is only for 5-5 on play; it doesn’t include special teams time because it would skew the stat too much.  Corsi is a great indicator for future success; the more shot attempts a player has when he is on the ice compared to his opponent, the more likely he is to score goals.

Let’s take a look:

Jaroslav Halak – 29 save shutout in the 4-0 win over Calgary.  No surprise Calgary struggled in a back to back on the road.  This was Halak’s second shutout in 3 games; he’s been outstanding on the whole this season.  Keep rolling him.

Frans Nielsen – Two goals on 5 shots, -4 in Corsi.  It’s obviously good to see Nielsen score 2 goals and on the surface, it looks like Nielsen was fortunate because he had the worst Corsi of all Islanders.  That said, he received more defensive zone starts than offensive and at the end of the day, -4 isn’t horrible there.  He’s secured into the top 6 and even if the Islanders use him in a defensive role, he has two good offensive wingers on his line so production should be there.  He’s fringe in 12’ers but must-own in anything deeper and if you count faceoff wins as a stat, he’s worth considering in 12’ers.

Kyle Okposo – Two assists with 3 shots, -1 Corsi.  He’s scoring at a great rate to start the year and is locked into the top power play unit so keep rolling Okposo.

Dougie Hamilton – Two shots and 2 PIM, +4 Corsi.  Hamilton ended up -3 on the night which is incredibly unlucky considering that the Flames outshot the Islanders while he was on the ice.  He has really struggled so far this year in Calgary but a lot of it looks to be bad luck.  I’d like to see the minutes higher, and I could see dropping him in shallow leagues (8 or 10 people) but I’m still holding in 12’ers or deeper.  He’s too talented (along with the Flames on the whole) for this to continue.

Joni Ortio – 31 saves on 35 shots.  Not the greatest game but he is the goalie of the future in Calgary so he’s worth considering in dynasty leagues.  In one year leagues, I wouldn’t own him right now and if you had the Calgary goalie platoon, keep Jonas Hiller and either find another goalie to replace Kari Ramo or turn his spot into a streamer spot.

Mikkel Boedker – Two assists with 2 shots, 0 Corsi.  In a game where Arizona was outshot 63-39 and 44-30 at even strength (reminder, shots attempted, not on goal), to come away with a 0 Corsi is quite impressive.  Boedker is a streaky player so look to stream him in the upcoming games for the Coyotes.

Max Domi – Goal on 2 shots, +3 Corsi.  The 20 year old is on an absolute tear to start the season and it’s telling that even though the Coyotes were dominated in this game, they weren’t when Domi was on the ice.  Looking more and more like a top 100 player going forward and even higher in dynasty leagues.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Two assist and 5 shots, +1 in Corsi in 25 minutes.  To summarize, when OEL was on the ice in 47.4 minutes at even strength, the Coyotes outshot the Leafs by 1.  OEL played almost half of that time.  When he wasn’t on the ice, the Leafs outshot the Coyotes by 15.  Bottom line is that when OEL is on the ice, the Coyotes will hold their own but when he isn’t, they’re going to be dominated.  Amazingly, he’s a plus player to start the year.  I had him in the third tier of defenseman to start the season but at the bottom because of a potentially horrific plus-minus.  If he holds around even for the season, he’s going to be in the top 10 defenseman for sure.

Nazem Kadri – Two assists with three shots and 4 PIM, +12 Corsi.  When Kadri has been on the ice this year, the Leafs have carried the play.  He’s putting up over 4 shots on goal per game and has been incredibly unlucky to have only 1 goal to this point.  I’d look to acquire him in a trade in most leagues because even though Toronto is a bad team, they’re good when the top line is on the ice.

James Van Riemsdyk – Goal on 4 shots and 4 PIM, +9 Corsi.  Much like his linemate Kadri, JVR has been a bit unfortunate to start the year scoring wise and shockingly is a plus player so far.  I had him ranked 129 in preseason because I expected him to be -20 or worse.  I said he’d be in the top 100 if that isn’t the case and so far, he doesn’t look to be anywhere near that bad.

Morgan Rielly – Goal on 4 shots, +7 Corsi in 24 minutes.  The former 5th overall pick looks great for Toronto and the Leafs are controlling the game with him on the ice.  He’s now scored in 2 consecutive games and the ice time is increasing.  He’s on the fringe of standard 12’ers for now.  If you league counts hits or blocks, I’d stay away because Rielly doesn’t contribute much in those areas.

Corey Crawford – 39 save shutout in the 1-0 overtime win over Anaheim.  Another game, another 1-0 overtime win for Crawford.  Absolutely in the zone right now and has had a great start to have a career year.

Jonathan Toews – OT winner on 4 shots, -5 Corsi.  Another game, another 1-0 overtime goal for Toews.  I’d like to see him start contributing at 5 on 5 and the negative Corsi is a surprise from Toews.  That said, these game winning goals should only boost his confidence.  He’s not a fantasy superstar by any means, I’d have him closer to 50th overall than the top 10 but come the end of the year, you can expect 65ish points with good counting stats.

Brent Seabrook – Assist with 3 shots, +2 Corsi in almost 27 minutes.  The minutes have been through the roof with Duncan Keith out so pick him up immediately where available.

Hampus Lindholm – Three shots, +19 Corsi in almost 27 minutes.  Absolutely incredible Corsi to see; the Ducks completely dominated with Lindholm on the ice.  Like the rest of his team, Lindholm has been unlucky to start the season.  All of the indicators suggest that an offensive breakout is coming.  In anything deeper than 12 man, I’d add Lindholm before he breaks out.  In 12 man, I’d add him if you have a weak spot on defense; otherwise keep an eye on him.

Ryan Getzlaf – Three shots, +10 Corsi.  Another guy who’s been brutally unlucky.  I suggest sending his owner some trade offers to see if he’s impatient and will sell low.

Fredrik Andersen – 23 saves on 24 shots in the loss.  He’s played great and if that continues, the wins will surely come.  Another guy I’d look to buy low on.

Evander Kane – Some injury news here as Kane was diagnosed with an MCL injury that will sideline him for 4-6 weeks.  If you have an IR spot, definitely stash him, but if you don’t and you have unlimited moves, you can cut him loose and turn his spot into a streamer for now.

Tuesday Streamers: I suggested a bunch of guys in my Monday article to stream for their coming games so take a look here for a bunch of players I spotlighted for streaming.  I’ll give a few more below.

Robby Fabbri (0.0% owned) – Tonight will be Fabbri’s first game back from a concussion and with the injury to Jaden Schwartz, the Blues will be counting on Fabbri to contribute offensively.  Tampa isn’t the greatest matchup but the Blues have been holding their own and are at home so look for Fabbri to get on the score sheet in his return.

Reilly Smith (3.9%) – The Avalanche are the worst possession team in the league, the Panthers have been solid to start the year, they’re at home, and Smith is in their top 6 and on the second power play unit.  You probably won’t find a better spot for the Panthers to succeed all year.

Nino Niederreiter (21.1% owned) – The Wild are a great possession team, the Oilers are not and the Oilers have been a defensive sieve.  Nino has moved up to the second line and is on the second power play unit so look for him to get on the scoresheet tonight.

That’s all for Monday night’s games.  As always, post your comments and questions below.  I’d like to know if you guys want the Corsi-related information in the future.  As a stats guy first and foremost, I find that it is a great indicator of future success so it could get us ahead of the curve before players break out.  Some people don’t like the “advanced stats” so if you guys don’t find them useful, I won’t include them.  I’m here to write for you guys so I would truly appreciate some feedback.  I’ll be back on Wednesday to recap the big Tuesday night slate.  Take care everyone!

 

 

  1. Veritas says:
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    Thank you for the article, it was very informative. I happen to enjoy advanced stats since I also believe they serve a purpose when trying to make decisions. I loved today’s article. Keep up the good work

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Veritas: No problem, glad to hear people enjoy it. Thank you!

  2. Connor says:
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    I say absolutely keep the Corsi stats.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Connor: Will do, thanks!

  3. Gus says:
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    I dig the Corsi too.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Gus: Sounds good, thanks!

  4. ashtray says:
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    I’m down with the Corsi too.

    How many goalies do you like to carry in a 12 teamer?

    I’m thinking about picking up a 3rd behind Frederik Andersen and Mrazek. Do any of these guys seem worthy of a spot:

    Craig Anderson
    Antti Niemi
    Thomas Greiss
    Michael Hutchinson
    Antti Taanta
    Jhonas Enroth
    Kristers Gudlevskis
    Anders Lindback
    Al Montoya
    Mike Condon

    Thanks

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @ashtray: Sounds good. I generally carry 3. I’d grab one of the top two for sure. I’d lean towards Niemi because his team is ver good but Anderson is more likely to be a workhorse where Niemi will be on the better side of a platoon so if you want more starts, Anderson is fine.

  5. Fungazi says:
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    Buy low on Rask or stay away? W/L/GAA/SV%

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Fungazi: I’m probably staying away. The Bruins defense is horrible and they have played more much open this year than in the past. If it’s really low, I’d consider taking the shot but I’m not actively looking to get Rask.

  6. Beware the Shit Rope says:
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    grab or keep which 2 of
    bailey/gagner/tanguay/zucker/palmieri (in order the 2nd slot will turn into goalie streamer slot)

    i have zucker as streamer and drafted tanguay, but tanguay barely takes shots anymore, and was moved to 3rd line.

    Read more: http://hockey.razzball.com/perfect-canadiens/#ixzz3poLn6IZL

    • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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      @Beware the Shit Rope: and holy crap the corsi is good (not the kind you have to beware of). what’s your idea of fenwick vs corsi, or the “close” version of each?

        • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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          @Beware the Shit Rope: sorry, about that link to your own post, i copy/pasted and didn’t see it.

      • Viz

        Viz says:
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        @Beware the Shit Rope: To judge teams in real life, the close version of each stat are very telling and probably more useful because it takes away the blowouts and shows how good teams are in tight games. In fantasy, it doesn’t really matter if the games are close or not so I’ll be looking at the general version of the stats.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Beware the Shit Rope: Right now I’d go Zucker first and then Bailey of those 5.

  7. Ben says:
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    I’m back again. Love this blog, thanks in advance for the advice. I’ll post my whole roster and as much info as I can think of.

    Possible traded. My Justin Faulk AND Jason Spezza for her Roberto Luongo.

    10 team 5 Keepers

    9 Forwards 5 D 2 G 2 Utility 6 Bench

    G, A, STP, SHOT, HIT, BLOCK, PIM
    WIN, SAVE, GAA, SV%

    Ovie
    Benn
    Spezza
    Kopitar
    Lucic
    Strome
    Lee
    Dubinsky
    Vrbata
    Tatar
    Backes

    Weber
    John Carlson
    Justin Faulk
    Ristolainen
    Barrie
    Erik Johnson
    Orpik

    Holtby
    Anderson
    Hutchinson

    IR Couture
    IR Eberle

    The reasons to do the trade is my excess of scoring, if you can imagine such a thing, and my need to accommodate my injured forwards. I still need a spot or two for streaming (7 transactions a week) and for reasons of team balance I need hits/blocks/PIM players. Do I make a counter offer, accept, or am I stupid for considering this. Spezza is good but his peripherals are weak, and Faulk is a stud IMO and I drafted him for a reason. My defense is solid though. I’d be dropping Hutch. Thoughts?

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @Ben: I don’t think you’re stupid for considering this by any means but I don’t think Luongo is enough to get back by himself. I would counter and either give up someone worse (maybe switch from Faulk to a worse D) or have the person with Luongo give you someone else back that gives you hits blocks and PIM. You can throw Hutch to her too since you’re going to cut him anyways and he has some value. If you want to send me their roster, I can maybe give you some suggestions or you can just post some potential counters below and I’ll give you my thoughts.

  8. goodfold2 says:
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    how is that zero % owned for fabbri possible, i understand it’ll be low in 12 and unders, but that wouldn’t make it zero. I’m assuming that’s some yahoo b.s., just how you’ll see their “math” at play in their football matchups, where stuff that is often very unlikely is called 0% possible. Just because a kicker is very unlikely to score 20 pts, it doesn’t make it impossible, which is exactly what 0% means. Here, it is possible that Fabbri is zero % owned, but from me alone i know it’s not actually true.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      @goodfold2: It’s not exactly 0%, it’s 0.0% meaning that he could be owned in some leagues, just less than 0.1%. Regardless, it is absurdly low for a player with his talent.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Viz: i still find it near impossible, and likely bad yahoo math that it’s even near/under .1%, even if that stat is only for 12 and unders, which i’m guessing is so. He’s owned in every 16 and up i’m in. Even if that stat is from a Twilight Zone episode where I am the only person who owns him i might make up more than .1%.

  9. Ben says:
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    @Ben:

    AND clearly that’s not enough players. I also have Eric Staal, Kucherov, and Phaneuf.

  10. Phil beers says:
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    I love the corsi stats! I think the extra analytics is amazing keep it coming and more

Comments are closed.