If you didn’t see my Top 10, in which I really like the top of the draft and really only love nine players, you can check that out here. Today, I’m going to continue through players ranked 11-20. As a reminder, this will be my last post before I move to positional rankings, starting with forwards. That will come early next week. And with that, let’s get to it!
11) Martin Necas – Necas’ first full season in Colorado couldn’t have gone any better, as he set career highs across the board, finishing with 100 points. He’s locked onto MacKinnon’s wing, which is as good as it gets. As I talked about in the MacKinnon section, some falloff at even strength could be balanced out by the power play bouncing back. There is no reason why Colorado’s power play should have been that bad, so hopefully a full season of Kadri gets it back on track. This does feel a little rich for Necas, but at the same time, we did just see 100 points. This tier goes from Q. Hughes through at least 18th overall, if not into the Top 40 forwards, so you can make an easy argument for anyone through Tkachuk to be here, if not more guys than that.
12) Rasmus Dahlin – Part of me thinks that Dahlin should be ranked 10th ahead of Hughes. He’s so good at hitting all of the categories that even being a bit behind in points, he was ahead of Werenskiy and Hughes in player raters last season. Dahlin is entering the prime of his career as the team around him gets older and approaches their prime. I’d argue he’s the safest player in this range besides Boldy, and as evidenced by finishing as the #1 overall defenseman before, Dahlin has a big ceiling.
13) Matt Boldy – I was very aggressive in ranking Boldy last season, and he delivered with a 42+43 season with elite shots. A nice chunk of the offensive bump came on the power play, which should be sustainable with Hughes in the fold. I’ve seen Boldy ranked in the top 10 in some places, and while I can understand it, it’s a bit too rich for me. I don’t love his linemates now that it seems like he’ll stay apart from Kaprizov for balance. JEEK is a fine player, but very injury prone. It looks like Coleman will get a chance to be on that wing, and while he still drives play, there’s not a lot of creativity there. He was the #11 forward last season, and I’m expecting more of the same.
14) Zach Werenski – I originally had Werenski in my top 10, but even with his Norris winning level, he was the #8 overall defenseman last season. The shot rate is incredible, and 20+ goals and a point per game are well within play. I just find him riskier than Dahlin for a few reasons. One, Columbus does seem to have some disaster potential. You have Marchenko and Werenski contract situations looming over the team, and while they seem committed for now, until they sign a long term deal (or say they’re committed past this upcoming season), it could get messy. Two, he doesn’t contribute to hits or PIM much. Three, while he’s been very healthy the last two seasons, he does have some history. If you really want the big shots right away, I can’t argue with you taking Werenski as D2.
15) Evan Bouchard – Bouchard was the #1 defenseman last season, putting up a whopping 95 points. He’s likely to be the best defenseman on the power play, and he’s missed two games total over the past five seasons. Bouchard has gone from 82 to 67 to 95 points, showing the variance that he has. That, along with Babcock potentially losing his mind over Bouchard’s defensive gaffes, made me put him at the end of this tier of defensemen. Similarly to Werenski, if you want to lock in elite power play points right away, you could also take Bouchard over any of the defensemen besides Makar.
16) Jack Eichel – We’ve now moved into a sub-tier of players that have huge upside, but also carry risk. Eichel hasn’t missed that much time the last two seasons, but he’s missed 15, 19, 5, and 8 games in his first four full seasons in Vegas. He’s also settled in the 30 goal range despite the elite shot rate, although the playmaking has increased. The one thing that I would argue in Eichel’s favor, if you want to make a bullish case, is that the departure of Dorofeyev could lead to Eichel being the trigger man on the power play. He’s deferred so much in the past two seasons. There is no reason for Eichel to have one power play goal in a season. He may not have the upside of the next two guys, especially Matthews, but his downside is nowhere near as much. If you want a middle ground between safety and upside, Eichel is your guy.
17) Auston Matthews – The biggest wild card in drafts, Matthews’ upside has to keep him in the Top 20. The shot rate is ridiculous and even in his worst seasons, Matthews plays at a 40 goal pace. The problem is that the injuries are really starting to pile up, and even when healthy, his goal rate is trending in the wrong direction. Is he already a shell of himself, or can he get his career back on track in his age 29 season? I tend to lean more towards the latter, and there’s obviously a path to a 50+40 season with 300+ shots. You just have to be willing to accept the disaster potential.
18) Matthew Tkachuk – I didn’t go into these rankings planning on having Tkachuk this high, but the more I looked at it, the more I felt he had to be here. He’s been so good every season in Florida, and he was actually better than I realized last season after returning from injury. Tkachuk should be over a point per game with around three shots per game and elite hits / PIM. The power play points should be very good as well, even though Florida doesn’t have a quality PPQB in their lineup. The downside is even lower than Matthews, but I think Tkachuk’s median outcome is actually higher.
19) Brandon Hagel – If you want safe and boring, Hagel is your guy. He’s going to dominate his minutes at even strength, making him a great bet to finish over a point per game. Again, if he actually gets consistent PP1 time, Hagel could easily be a top 10 player. Is that finally going to happen? Shrug emoji. I get they want a righty in that spot and that’s why Bjorkstrand played there a lot, but at some point, you just need to get your best option out there. Also, Bjorkstrand is gone, as is Paul. Is Cirelli or Goncalves really going to play over Hagel? I have cautious optimism that Hagel finally gets sustained PP1 time.
20) Logan Thompson – As mentioned in the Top 10, I would never take a goalie this high. There’s just far too much risk in all goaltenders to justify a pick this high. Hellebuyck, the consensus #1 going into last season, was a mess. If you drafted Bob, you were dead before the season even started. Vladar was a top 5 goalie out of nowhere, and Wedgewood was literally the #1 goalie. Goalies are voodoo. Now, there are tiers of goalies in regards to how safe they are. Out of the safe goalies last season, Hellebuyck was a disaster, but the others like Igor, Oettinger, and Vasilevskiy were all top 10 goalies with ease. They also have big upside, which is why they were in tier one.
That brings us to Thompson, who I believe is the best combination of safe and upside. In last season’s rankings, I wrote about how Thompson was excellent in 24-25, but the team defense in front of him wasn’t great. I was a little worried that he could sustain that level of play. Instead, he was even better. By all advanced metrics, Thompson was the best goalie in the league last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. By the basic numbers, he had a 2.44/.912 with 31 wins in 58 games. Going into this season, the Capitals roster was significantly improved this offseason. Tuch should be a great two way player for the first few years of that deal. Kyrou had incredible defensive numbers in St. Louis last season. Jenner should be a nice bottom six center if healthy. Desharnais helps the depth of the blue line. Add in full season of I. Protas and C. Hutson and it’s easy to project Washington as the 2nd best team in the Metro. Even marginal defensive improvements around Thompson should get his numbers to truly elite status. Again, I wouldn’t be taking him in the second round, but Thompson is my first goalie on the board.
That’s all for now guys. My next post will be going through the top 30-40 forwards, of which I’ve covered 14 already. That will come early next week, more than likely on Monday. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
