We wrap things up in these parts with my forward rankings. If you’re looking solely for a draft board, then you can use my Top 200 here. If you want to know why guys are ranked where, and whether I like them or not based on where they get drafted, then this is the post for you. Let’s get right to it!
1) Connor McDavid
2) Nathan MacKinnon
3) Leon Draisaitl
4) Nikita Kucherov
5) Auston Matthews
6) David Pastrnak
7) Mikko Rantanen
8) Matthew Tkachuk
9) Artemi Panarin
10) Kirill Kaprizov
These ten forwards make up the Top 10 overall. You can read up on all of them here.
11) Jack Hughes
12) Jake Guentzel
13) J.T. Miller
14) Brady Tkachuk
15) Mitch Marner
16) Sidney Crosby
17) Jason Robertson
These seven are covered in the Top 20.
18) William Nylander – This tier started with Marner and goes through Forsberg. Nylander scored 40 goals for the second consecutive season, while setting a career high in assists. The shot rate has reached elite status, as has his power play production. He does lack in the PIM/hits department, and I’m a bit worried about his quality of linemates. Toronto will probably be more defensively structured under Berube as Keefe too. Nylander has stayed healthy and is extremely safe, but I’m expecting a small downtick in production.
19) Elias Pettersson – Pettersson’s production dropped a bit, mostly driven by 50 less shots on goal in two more games played. The PIM are very bad, although he does get a lot of hits so his value does swing by format. I think we see Pettersson closer to the 102 points than 89 this season. The addition of DeBrusk gives more options for better linemates for Pettersson, as does the potential for Lekkerimaki in the lineup. The points could be the best in his tier, but there’s a bit more downside because the other categories aren’t elite.
20) Filip Forsberg – RoR joining Smashville created one of the best lines in hockey with Forsberg being the main driver. Forsberg set career highs across the board with 48 goals, 46 assists, and an incredible 347 shots. Obviously, it’s going to be hard to repeat, but Forsberg’s shooting percentage wasn’t even out of his range. Stamkos and Marchessault improving their depth should only help them get easier matchups. The one downside with Forsberg is his injury history is extensive. He has a habit of missing around 20 games, but hopefully that’s a thing of the past.
21) Tage Thompson – This tier goes from TNT to Bedard. Last season was a disaster for the Sabres, Thompson included. I’m giving him a bit of a pass because he played through a wrist injury that clearly hampered his shot. He still had 29 goals in 71 games and 3.5 shots per game. The vibes around the Sabres is worlds better, and the power play should be fixed with new coaching. I’m betting on Tage getting back to 40+ goals and 300+ shots.
22) Sam Reinhart – There’s probably some bias in my rankings have Reinhart this high. Yes, he did score 57 goals last season. No, he’s not shooting 24.5% again. He’s a force on the power play, and we know that his line is going to dominate at even strength. I’m expecting the goals to go into the high 30’s, but the assists back into the high 40’s like they were two seasons ago. A big factor as well is his health. Reinhart has been extremely healthy over his 10 seasons. His safety keeps him ranked this high.
23) Brayden Point – Point followed up his 51 goal season with another 46. As expected with Tampa, he was fantastic on the power play. We can expect Point to stay around this range along with just below three shots per game. Now, he did struggle a bit last season at even strength, although if he plays with Guentzel, I think we see an uptick there. You can make a case for Point to top this year because I think the upside is the highest. That’s because Tampa is so thin that the top line might get insane minutes.
24) Tim Stutzle – Stutzle’s case for this tier is similar to Thompson’s. It was an extremely disappointing season for Ottawa, with Stutzle being a big part of it. The good news is that we can pretty much lock in 50+ assists for Stutzle at this point. Does he go back towards the 39 goals, or only fall between the last two seasons (I can’t see a repeat of last season)? The shot rate needs to get back up as well.
25) Connor Bedard – This admittedly might be too aggressive, but I’m expecting a massive jump in year two from Bedard. His talent is through the roof, and his linemates / PP should be much improved around him. If your league has plus-minus, then Bedard should be dropped down a tier.
26) Zach Hyman – This tier goes through Aho. Like Reinhart, Hyman won’t be repeating last season, but the assists should shoot back up to counter the drop in goals. The floor is so high given the shot rate, workload, and quality of Edmonton’s power play that Hyman shouldn’t drop any lower than this.
27) Aleksander Barkov – It feels like I always have Barkov and Aho next to each other in my rankings, but they are remarkably similar for fantasy. It’s pretty clear what to expect from Barkov at this point, although he has missed 9-15 games in each of the past three seasons.
28) Sebastian Aho – We finally got elite power play production from Aho last season, and that should repeat with the return of Gostisbehere. That caused Aho to leave his usual range of right around a point per game on either side of the line. In his last four full seasons, he’s scored 38, 37, 36, and 36 goals. The shots are almost always the same as well, so only the assists will shift his value.
29) Kyle Connor – This tier goes into the next post. It’s extremely hard to separate everyone in this range, so it comes down to team build and some personal preference. If your league has PIM or hits, then Connor should slide towards the back of this tier. From a pure points perspective, Connor should end up right around a point per game with a focus on goals, although there is more upside if the Jets fix their power play. That could happen with new coaching. He’s one of the best bets for 35+ goals in the league if he stays healthy.
30) Alex Ovechkin – It was a dreadful start to the season for Ovie, but then he finished with 22 goals in 35 games to carry Washington into the playoffs. There is a plus-minus risk here, and the shots aren’t as elite as they once were, although they’re still quite good. We also know Ovechkin is going to be great on the power play. There’s some bias here because having Ovechkin as he chases the goal record sounds fun, but if your team has plenty of assists already, he should be a welcome fit.
31) Cole Caufield – Caufield’s assists took a big step forward last season, which is key to his overall value. Caufield is pushing towards four shots per game now, a truly elite number. Given his shooting ability, he was unlucky to get 28 goals last season. Caufield is still only 23 years old, so a step forward to reach this range seems well within reason. He does need to drop in PIM leagues, although the hits aren’t as much of a hit.
32) Steven Stamkos – It is going to look very strange seeing Stammer in a Smashville jersey. He has stayed healthy for three straight seasons, the shots are still elite, and he reached 40 goals again. The main question is whether or not Novak can keep up with him and Marchessault. The underlying data suggests yes, but it is still a big jump. Despite the change of scenery, I’m expecting more of the same, with perhaps a small decline in PPP.
33) Adrian Kempe – It’s kind of gone under the radar how good Kempe is now. We’re talking elite shots, very good PP production, strong PIM/hits, and close to a point per game. It’s a very well-rounded stat line that fits almost all team builds. I think we can even see an improved PP with Clarke in Doughty’s place.
34) Dylan Larkin – Larkin has been right around the same range for three straight seasons, although he did turn some assists into goals last year. It’s a very similar line to Kempe, although Kempe is a bit better on the power play. I will say that I could see a jump for Larkin because of Kane and Gustafsson being there on the top unit.
35) Carter Verhaeghe – Verhaeghe becoming a full time PP1 guy in Florida rounds off his entire stat line. The top line is elite and pretty much never changes, making Verhaeghe one of the safest players around. The assists are a bit behind the top end guys, but having no holes in your game goes a long way.
36) Jesper Bratt – Despite the struggles of the Devils last season, Bratt reached a point per game for the first time. The shots jumped to three shots per game as well. Bratt is one of the best play drivers in the league, and he should get a healthy Hughes with him all season now. I’m expecting a big Devils rebound and the big minutes should last with Keefe. Bratt feels like a great fit with every team build.
37) Jack Eichel – The shot rate for Eichel was fantastic, bumping his goals to a 40 goal pace over 82 games. He did fall of a bit at even strength, and I really don’t like what Vegas did in the offseason. We’ve seen Olofsson play with Eichel before, and while his shot is great, he’s the ultimate passenger. Eichel hasn’t managed to play a full 82 games, and the minutes can’t really go up from 21 per game. It’ll be good when he’s out there, but I just don’t see a leap back towards a 95 point pace like he had in his last full season in Buffalo.
38) Wyatt Johnston – It’s hard to find a bigger Johnston fan outside of his family members than yours truly. He reached 32+33 in his second full season, and with Pavelski retiring, he should have a permanent spot on PP1. The one concern that I have is that the Stars never play their guys top end minutes. Johnston played exactly 17 minutes per game last season, but I don’t see a lot of room for improvement there. Even with that, he only has to take a small step forward to pay this ranking off.
39) Kevin Fiala – The shot rate and goals have taken a small step back for Fiala since arriving in Los Angeles. Even with that, he was a top 30 forward last season because of being good across the board. With Arvidsson gone, the Kings are shifting the lines a bit, with it looking like Fiala will play with Byfield as his center. Personally, I like that fit, so I’m expecting more of the same from Fiala.
40) Timo Meier – Part of me wanted to put Meier even higher and throw away last season, much like the other Devils. Even in a bad season, Meier had 28 goals in 69 games with exactly three shots per game. The PIM and hits are very good as well, and the Devils power play should turn back around. The one concern I have is that him and Hughes has been somewhat of a clunky fit because both love having the puck on their stick. That said, they’re too talented to work, especially with Bratt there, and worst case he plays with Hischier. We’ve seen the shot rate with Toronto players shoot up with Keefe, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Meier get back to 4 shots per game like he was the previous two seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised by a massive campaign.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back later in the week with more forward rankings that will be more quick fire / focusing on certain guys instead of as detailed as this. After that, I’ll have some bold predictions, and then the season will be here! I have set up a free league for people to join if there’s any interest. Anyone can join, and you can do that through the link here. The draft will be on Thursday night. If it fills and more people want to have a league, then we can set that up. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
