This post is going to be a long one, so I’m going to cut right to the chase. Today, we’re going to look at the Top 40 forwards. The top 16 were covered in my Top 20, which you can read here. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please leave them below. The Top 60 will be out on Thursday and then the rest of the forwards will be out on Friday. Let’s get to it!
1) Nathan MacKinnon
2) Connor McDavid
3) Leon Draisaitl
4) Nikita Kucherov
5) Auston Matthews
6) David Pastrnak
7) Kirill Kaprizov
8) Jack Hughes
9) Mikko Rantanen
10) Brady Tkachuk
11) Jack Eichel
12) Artemi Panarin
13) William Nylander
14) Kyle Connor
15) Mitch Marner
16) Matvei Michkov – Everyone to this point is covered in the Top 20, which is linked in the intro.
Edit: Made a mistake and omitted Hagel, who I originally had #20 overall but ended up putting Michkov there, so I crossed him off my list and didn’t adjust it. Thanks Dustin for catching this!
17) Brandon Hagel – My first bold prediction for last season was that Hagel would have 90+ points, and he delivered with exactly 90 points. Hagel finished as the #4 overall player in PIM leagues last season, in part due to his +33 rating. While I’ll never predict +33 to repeat, Hagel is one of the best even strength players in the league. Additionally, he did have only 18 STP last season, and only 11 PPP (all assists) Are they really going to play Bjorkstrand or Cirelli in that PP1 spot? I have a hard time seeing that. I think what regression we get at even strength, Hagel can come close to erasing with some better PP work. I mean, he can’t get 0 PPG again, right? It’s probably a bit too high, but I’ve always been a fan of Hagel and there’s no reason to see his ice time dropping. Cooper loves to push his top six because they don’t have the depth anymore.
18) Matt Boldy – Boldy is the type of player that I love to have on my team. He checks every box and has room to grow. He played every game last season, totaling 27+46 and almost 3.5 shots per game. Boldy had over 20 PPP for the third straight year, despite Kaprizov missing half of the season, which greatly hurt their PP. He’s only 24 years old, giving him the chance for natural improvement. His shooting percentage was a tad lower than his norm last season, which makes it likely he gets back over 30 goals. He’s also a solid plus in PIM if your league has them as a category. Boldy’s extremely safe across the board with plenty of upside.
19) Clayton Keller – The first year in Utah was great for Keller, totaling 30+60 for a career high 90 points. A lot of that came from a whopping 37 PPP, third most in the league. It’s going to be pretty hard to repeat that, even though there’s plenty of talent on the Utah roster. Keller is another case of a lower shooting percentage than expected, so realistically, we’re looking at about 33+55 with elite PPP, even if it’s not top of the league good. He does need to be dropped a bit in hits leagues though.
20) Filip Forsberg – I see Forsberg very similar to Nashville as a whole: they aren’t as good as two seasons ago, and not as bad as last season. The difference is Forsberg’s “bad” was 31+45 with about 3.5 shots per game. He was a rare bright spot on the Preds last season, and the team bouncing back around him can only help his cause. Additionally, it was the second straight season that Forsberg played all 82 games, which used to be a problem. The more I looked at it, is there really that much difference between him and Connor? Connor is a bit safer and more likely to top 40 goals, but we have seen Forsberg do it twice before, so his ceiling is that of a top 20 player, even though he’ll end up in the 30th range after you add in defensemen and some goalies.
21) Tage Thompson – Despite the Buffalo power play being horrific again, Thompson still bounced back in a big way, scoring 44 goals in 76 games. Yes, that was partially aided by a high shooting percentage, but Thompson is the kind of player where 15% is normal, so 18 isn’t out of the question. What is a bit worrisome is that Thompson had only 28 assists. Is that the level we’re looking at going forward, or does he find a middle ground from his career high of 47? I tend to think the latter, especially if the power play can do anything (Doan’s arrival could be a sneaky help in front). It’s also anecdotal, but Thompson really took off last season after he was snubbed from Four Nations, and with how he played at the World Championships this summer, I expect him to really go for an Olympics spot. He’s also a plus in hits and PIM. At the end of the day, how low can you drop someone who has an over/under goal line of 38.5 and led the league in even strength goals last year?
22) Jake Guentzel – I had Guentzel ranked as a top 10 player last season, expecting a step forward from his Pitt days because of the Tampa Bay power play. Instead, it was more of the same, but that’s still an elite player. Guentzel finished with exactly a point per game, 41+39 in 80 games. That came with elite PPP and an average shot rate for a forward. He’s as safe as they come, and if you want safe, you can put him after Marner ahead of Michkov.
23) Brayden Point – Even though they play different positions and are on the same team, Point and Guentzel’s stat lines are shockingly similar. Point has a bit more goal upside, even though he keeps defying logic and shooting over 20%. I only have Guentzel higher because the shot rate dropped quite a bit for Point to slightly below Guentzel’s. I don’t really see any different between these two and the next player…
24) Sam Reinhart – We knew Reinhart wasn’t going to repeat 57 goals, but 39 in 79 games was well within expectation. He’s good for a point per game and 2.5 shots per game and elite PPP. Sound familiar? You could see the Tkachuk absence in a couple ways. One, he is the one setting up Reinhart in the slot on the power play. On the other, Reinhart could shoot a bit more in general, and his minutes could have a small uptick in the first couple months. Reinhart has also stayed healthy throughout his entire career and fits right into this group of safe players seamlessly.
25) Sidney Crosby – It feels dumb to have Crosby this low coming off another 90 point season. The problem is that Pittsburgh is the only team in the East that isn’t really trying to win this season, as the team around Crosby continues to get worse. If your league has plus-minus, which a lot of them do, I don’t really see how he avoids a big negative. His shot rate also dropped last season to above average instead of elite. Maybe things change if Pitt is really dreadful, but I’m also not buying the chance of a trade at the deadline this season, presumably to Colorado or Montreal if they continue to ascend. If he decides to go that route, then I think it’s next summer, especially with the Olympics this season. Regardless, from a pure points standpoint, Crosby should extend his record of consecutive seasons over a point per game.
26) Macklin Celebrini – Similar to Crosby, it’s hard to envision Celebrini avoiding a bad plus-minus, even as the Sharks continue to improve. That said, I couldn’t have been more impressed by Celebrini’s rookie season. There were plenty of games where he was the best player on the ice as an 18 year old. His shot rate, which was a slight concern for me going into the season, was already elite as a rookie. Celebrini had a 50% Corsi which is insane as a rookie, and his goalies had an 86.3 save percentage with him on the ice. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a number that low for a full season. There’s a real chance that Celebrini is so good that it doesn’t matter about the goalies and his plus-minus ends up fine. There’s so much young talent around him too that it wouldn’t shock me if this is the last season you’re able to draft Celebrini outside of the Top 20 for more than a decade, and possibly the Top 10.
27) Martin Necas – Necas is one of the players that I’m having the most difficulty ranking. On one hand, he was over a point per game last season and is locked into a major role on MacKinnon’s wing and the Colorado power play. There’s no denying Necas has top 20 overall upside and potentially top 10. On the other hand, his contract situation is a mess. Normally, I wouldn’t really care, but we’ve already seen Colorado ship out Rantanen close to becoming a UFA, and they have nowhere near that attachment to Necas. He certainly will be in a worse spot than Colorado no matter where he’d be traded. If he signs a contract before the season, I’m definitely moving Necas up, so it’s safe to say I’m more bullish than not on Necas.
28) Alex Ovechkin – It is insane that Ovechkin set the goals record last season despite the time missed, scoring 44 goals in 65 games while having his best season in three years. While he’s not leading the league in shots anymore, his shot rate is still elite. Loyal Razzballers know I prefer to target goals and shots earlier on than assists because it’s easier to get players that have a lot of assists but other flaws later, but it’s hard to stumble into big goals later. Therefore, how low can I really drop the best goal scorer and shot volume guy in fantasy hockey history? Just don’t pair him with someone else that’s light in assists.
29) Adrian Kempe – Kempe had 35 goals for the third time in the last four seasons, while continuing to dominate at even strength with around three shots per game. He’s also great in both hits and PIM. The PPP are a little light and are a big reason why he’s never topped a point per game, but Kempe feels incredibly safe to stay in the 35+40 range with some upside if the Los Angeles power play upticks a bit.
30) Jason Robertson – Three straight seasons Robertson has played every game and finished with at least 80 points. It’s safe to say that the 106 point season is an outlier at this point, but the floor is extremely high. He was better at even strength last season, so a power play bounce back would get him back towards 90 points. My main problem with Robertson now is his shot rate. He has dropped literally 102 shots from last season to his monstrous 2022-23 season. Now, his shot rate is merely average. If it goes well, Robertson will be right into the Guentzel, Point and Reinhart range, but there’s a little more uncertainty.
31) Cole Caufield – Caufield set a career high last season with 37 goals, which comes as no surprise given his shooting ability. The team around him is starting to improve, which only helps in terms of teams focusing on shutting down Caufield’s line. Like Robertson, Caufield’s shot rate dropped significantly, but Caufield is still above average in that regard. He also has respectable hit totals despite what you would assume. The arrival of Hutson should help the Canadiens offensively, and a full season of Hutson on PP1 and Demidov’s permanent arrival should boost the PP. I want Caufield everywhere this year, so I may end up moving him up. I’d bet on him reaching 40 goals for the first time.
32) Sebastian Aho – Boring, but safe. That’s the story with Aho, who dipped down to 74 points in 79 games. It would be shocking if Aho isn’t between 75-90 points, assuming he stays healthy. It’s simply good across the board, and I’m hoping it’s closer to the 90 point end with the arrival of Ehlers, who has always dominated at even strength. The only thing that hurts is that Aho doesn’t get the massive PP minutes some guys do on other teams.
33) Jesper Bratt – An original Razzball favorite (meaning one of mine), Bratt was over a point per game again with 21+67. What’s more impressive about that is that he did that without Hischier or Hughes available for a lot of the season. The shot rate did drop quite a bit, which is a concern, but I think he’s pretty likely to bounce back towards the three per game range. This admittedly could be too low, but I don’t love that he’s shifting more towards an assist guy instead of a better balance. On the other hand, 67 assists was 5th in the entire league.
34) Mark Scheifele – I’m a bit worried about Scheifele this season, so I could see myself dropping him a bit lower. Yes, he was excellent last season, but he did shoot almost 22%. Even for him, that’s a tad high. His PP time did dip a bit despite better production there. At the end of the day, he’s been around a point per game for a decade, so it’s hard to drop him lower than this. However, say he does regress in goals and drops down to 29 goals instead of 39 (he had 25 two seasons ago). Are we really happy spending a top 50-60 pick on 75 points with a below average shot rate? He was a top 15 forward last season so we know the upside, but he also has a bit more downside than others in this range.
35) J.T. Miller – In banger leagues, this is obviously way too low. Hell, you could make the case that Miller should be in the top 20 forwards. Miller was over a point per game once he was traded to the Rangers, and he has a 99 and 103 point season in the past. The Rangers power play is always fantastic as well. The shot rate is my real concern as Miller was below two per game while on the Rangers and overall on the season. No matter who his linemates are, they’re all certainly to be gunners, between Lafreniere, Panarin, and Zibanejad (even Cuylle if he bumps up), so I don’t really see a bounce back there. Even with that shot rate, Miller is so good at everything else that he should fit seamlessly into every fantasy team in this range of the draft.
36) Nick Suzuki – Shockingly similar to Scheifele, Suzuki broke out with 89 points despite his shot rate being below average. I feel like 89 is a bit high for him, but I do expect Suzuki to be right around a point per game again. As mentioned with Caufield, there could be a PP boost for Montreal this season too. Add in that Suzuki hasn’t missed a game in his six year career, and this could be a bit low for him. As mentioned repeatedly, I’m just pre-disposed to lowering guys with poor shot rates.
37) Tim Stutzle – Stutzle’s shot rate continued to drop to under two per game, which is a big hit compared to the way he was trending. There’s still a chance that it all clicks for Stutzle and he gets back to being a 90 point player, but I don’t really like the way the Ottawa forward group is rounding out around him and Tkachuk. Stutzle was the 30th overall forward last season so it’s hard to have him lower than this, but barring a big turnaround in his shot rate, it’s hard to see Stutzle reaching 30 goals, and that keeps him down here.
38) Nikolaj Ehlers – I’ve always been a huge Ehlers fan and now the possession driver goes to the best possession team in the league. He should slide onto the wing next to Aho and Jarvis, which has the chance to be an elite line. As always, the question is how much power play time is Ehlers going to get? If he stays healthy, I fully expect a career high in points and I think the shot rate bounces back towards three shots per game. It should be a good line across the board outside of hits.
39) Dylan Guenther – Guenther’s 21 year old season went according to plan, scoring 27+33 in 70 games. A lot of that was driven by the power play, which remains intact going into this year. Peterka’s arrival also rounds out the top six quite nicely from an offensive standpoint. There’s also room for some additional ice time to boost the stats. At the end of the day, I’m expecting a small uptick across the board which should be enough to get Guenther into this range.
40) Robert Thomas – Thomas reaching two shots per game makes him a clear top 75 player now. At this point in his career, Thomas is a lock for being over a point per game, almost certainly with 60+ assists. I generally don’t love that player type for fantasy, but at some point, someone with a realistic chance for 90+ points has to be ranked in this range. The finish to last season was so strong that I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas even ends up pushing towards 100 points.
41) Aleksander Barkov – I’m kind of out on Barkov this season, which sounds really dumb. He was just over a point per game with 71 points in 67 games, making it the fifth straight year over a point per game. The problem is that his shot rate has plummeted down to just over two per game, and he’s consistently missing time now. He missed 15 games last year, which is the third year out of four that he’s missed 14-15 games. The Panthers also didn’t dominate at even strength when Barkov was out there like we’re accustomed to. With how well the third line played once they acquired Marchand, how much are they going to push the top line minutes wise? Maybe I’ll get burned because Barkov is that good, but I’m looking elsewhere this year.
