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We keep things moving in these parts with the rest of my forward rankings.  I am going to put these guys into tiers with comments on players that I think are worth discussion.  For example, I’m not going to talk about Scheifele because at this point, we know he’s going to be right around a point per game with his goals coming down to how effective the Winnipeg PP is.  For the Top 40, you can read that here.  Let’s get to it!

41) Robert Thomas

42) Clayton Keller

These two close the tier that started at F29.  Thomas boosted his shot rate to over two per game, helping him reach a career high in goals with 26.  We know the assists will be fantastic, so he fits nicely into teams that already have elite shots.  Keller has been around a point per game for three straight seasons, but with Arizona in the past and stability with the organization, plus improvement from the team around him, I wouldn’t be surprised to see career highs for Keller.

43) Matt Boldy

44) Mark Scheifele

45) Travis Konecny

46) Jordan Kyrou

47) Nazem Kadri

48) Roope Hintz

49) Brock Boeser

50) Mathew Barzal

51) Chris Kreider

52) Andrei Svechnikov

53) Jonathan Marchessault

54) Brock Nelson

55) Vincent Trocheck

56) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

57) Brad Marchand

58) John Tavares

59) Owen Tippett

60) Joel Eriksson-Ek

61) Dylan Guenther

62) Nick Suzuki

63) Alex DeBrincat

64) Alex Tuch

65) Nikolaj Ehlers

66) Nico Hischier 

67) Seth Jarvis

This takes us through to just past the Top 100 in my overall rankings.  Most of these guys are safe with some upside.  Boldy should be back opening night so I didn’t drop him.  It might be a disservice to have Hintz and Nelson this low, as they are extremely consistent scoring 30 goals.  I just have a hard time seeing the Hintz breakthrough I anticipated because the Dallas first line gets amongst the lowest TOI for any top line in the league.  The linemates for Nelson are ugly and I think he’s been performing near his ceiling.

I bumped up RNH from my Top 200 list because I simply had him too low.  The regression happened as expected, but it was still 67 points with very good PPP.  He’s also been fairly durable throughout his career.  This is incredibly aggressive with Guenther, and you won’t have to draft him in this range.  That said, he was fantastic last season and I can’t wait to see him with Cooley for extended periods.  I’m lower on Trocheck again, and it’s nothing against what he’s doing.  Maybe I’m completely off base, but I do think that eventually, he could lose PP1 to Lafreniere, which would crater his value.

68) Patrick Kane

69) Juraj Slafkovsky

70) Pavel Buchnevich

71) Brandon Hagel

72) Mason McTavish

73) Lucas Raymond

74) Bo Horvat

75) Evgeni Malkin

76) Jeff Skinner

77) Bryan Rust

78) Jake DeBrusk

79) Martin Necas

Hagel is one of my favorite targets in drafts this season.  I probably should have bumped him higher to show that like I did with Guenther.  He just had 75 points with elite PIM and decent enough of shots with poor PPP.  Now, he should be on the first unit permanently.  It’s not outrageous to see a path for Hagel to get to 85+ points.  There are so many high upside guys for the Ducks that it’s hard to pick who is the best.  Given his experience in the league in tough minutes already, McTavish is my pick.  He also has a high floor because of the PIM.  There’s a good case for Rust being higher, but he has had injury concerns in the past.  This will be the last time Slafkovsky will be in this range.

80) Matt Duchene

81) Jared McCann

82) Elias Lindholm

83) J.J. Peterka

84) Matvei Michkov

85) Logan Cooley

86) Anze Kopitar

87) Dylan Strome

88) Teuvo Teravainen

89) Jack Quinn

90) Dylan Cozens

91) Gabriel Vilardi

92) Troy Terry

93) Alexis Lafreniere

94) Mats Zuccarello

95) Tyler Toffoli

96) Viktor Arvidsson

97) Quinton Byfield

98) Macklin Celebrini

99) Ryan O’Reilly

100) Nick Schmaltz

The two guys who are most likely to blow their rankings out of the water are Michkov and Cooley.  I believed Cooley should have been the first pick in his draft for the upside.  The shot rate will have to take a jump, but a Robert Thomas-esque season is firmly in play.  Michkov is one of the most talented offensive players drafted in recent years.  He’s still only 19, but after playing against men in Russia, the transition might be easier.    The

Did you know Quinn was 5th in the entire NHL in points/60 at even strength last season?  Now, he’s going to get PP1 time as well.  He hasn’t been able to stay healthy yet, but he’s had two fluke injuries.  If he does… loyal Razzballers know that I’ve historically been very bullish on Arvidsson.  He should play with Draisaitl and has massive upside if he stays healthy.  The shot rate keeps Byfield down in this range, but the breakout could be upon us.  I like him moving back to center with Fiala.

SAFE PLAYERS FOR LATE IN DRAFTS

Frank Vatrano, Blake ColemanTyler BertuzziBoone Jenner, Jamie Benn, Claude Giroux, Anthony DuclairMark StoneTrevor MooreMichael BuntingMatty BeniersDrake BathersonWilliam KarlssonRyan HartmanTomas Hertl, Vladimir TarasenkoYegor SharangovichBoone JennerJonathan Drouin, Tyler SeguinMason MarchmentSam BennettGustav NyquistOliver BjorkstrandBrayden SchennAndrew Mangiapane

These guys get a boost in deeper leagues where there’s value in having safer players at the bottom of your roster.  For example, in a standard 12’er, I wouldn’t be looking to draft Giroux.  The influx of young talent makes me worried that Vatrano’s role gets reduced a bit.  He’s safe in that he’s big shots and PIM, but I struggle to see a repeat of last season.  Duclair is a trendy pick for a big season on the Isles.  The path is there because they have no alternatives for a top role, but it’s year 11 and Duke has never topped 27 assists.  The biggest upside here might be Bunting based solely on his role.

HIGH UPSIDE LATE IN 12’ERS

Pierre-Luc DuboisAdam FantilliTrevor ZegrasLeo CarlssonCutter GauthierValeri NichushkinKirill MarchenkoVictor OlofssonLogan Stankoven, Matthew Knies, Will Smith, William EklundDawson MercerTommy NovakReilly SmithSean CouturierJake NeighboursMax DomiCole Perfetti

In general, I prefer to draft in this tier late in drafts.  If they hit, you’re golden.  If they don’t, you just cut them and either try someone else or make it a stream spot.  PLD gets another chance.  Does he actually care enough about hockey to perform again?  Time will tell, but we’ve seen a guy push towards the top 50 overall before.  There are so many Ducks with huge upside that it’s hard to separate them.  Honestly, I’d go by personal preference.  Who knows how Big Val looks when he’s back from suspension, but he just played at a 42 goal, 39 assist pace with three shots per game.  The upside is undeniable.

Vegas has atrocious wing depth, giving Olofsson a chance to play on the first line and PP1 to open the season.  Having watched him extensively in Buffalo, I have a hard time seeing him succeed in a Cassidy system, but he also should be motivating knowing this is his last chance to stick in the NHL.  Novak has an incredible opportunity getting to play with Stamkos and Marchessault.  Mercer should be locked into the top six and he did score 27 goals two seasons ago.  Smith gets a great chance playing with Zibanejad and Kreider.

That’s all for now guys.  I’ll be back tomorrow with ten bold predictions for the upcoming season.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below.  Thanks for reading, take care!

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jason
jason
11 days ago

Hi Viz,
Could you please rank my draft
10 team H2H
G(2) A(1) +/-(0.5) PIM(0.5) PPP(1) SHP(1) Hat(1) Hits(0.2) Blk (0.5)
W(4) L(-1) GA(-0.5) SV (0.1) SO(5)

I’m pretty sure my team lacks in hits and blocks and my goalies would need starts. But any other insights from you would be appreciated.

Keeper: Kucherov, M. Tkachuck, Pettersson
rd 4 p38 Jake Guentzel TB, LW
rd 5 p43 Evan Bouchard Edm, D
rd 6 p58 Aleksander Barkov Fla, C
rd 7 p63 Jeremy Swayman Bos, G
rd 8 p78 Miro Heiskanen Dal, D
rd 9 p83 Zach Werenski Cls, D
rd 10 p98 Kevin Fiala LA, LW
rd 11 p103 Devon Toews Col, D
rd 12 p118 Nikolaj Ehlers Wpg, LW
rd 13 p123 Brock Boeser Van, RW
rd 14 p138 Pyotr Kochetkov Car, G
rd 15 p143 Alex Tuch Buf, RW
rd 16 p158 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Buf, G
rd 17 p163 Robert Thomas StL, C
rd 18 p178 Patrick Kane Det, RW

Thank you!

Last edited 11 days ago by kexin
Jason
Jason
11 days ago
Reply to  Viz

Thanks Viz! I put Swayman on IR and put in a claim for Korpisalo.