We keep things moving in these parts with the rest of my forward rankings. I am going to put these guys into tiers with comments on players that I think are worth discussion. For example, I’m not going to talk about Scheifele because at this point, we know he’s going to be right around a point per game with his goals coming down to how effective the Winnipeg PP is. For the Top 40, you can read that here. Let’s get to it!
41) Robert Thomas
42) Clayton Keller
These two close the tier that started at F29. Thomas boosted his shot rate to over two per game, helping him reach a career high in goals with 26. We know the assists will be fantastic, so he fits nicely into teams that already have elite shots. Keller has been around a point per game for three straight seasons, but with Arizona in the past and stability with the organization, plus improvement from the team around him, I wouldn’t be surprised to see career highs for Keller.
43) Matt Boldy
44) Mark Scheifele
45) Travis Konecny
46) Jordan Kyrou
47) Nazem Kadri
48) Roope Hintz
49) Brock Boeser
50) Mathew Barzal
51) Chris Kreider
52) Andrei Svechnikov
53) Jonathan Marchessault
54) Brock Nelson
55) Vincent Trocheck
56) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
57) Brad Marchand
58) John Tavares
59) Owen Tippett
60) Joel Eriksson-Ek
61) Dylan Guenther
62) Nick Suzuki
63) Alex DeBrincat
64) Alex Tuch
65) Nikolaj Ehlers
66) Nico Hischier
67) Seth Jarvis
This takes us through to just past the Top 100 in my overall rankings. Most of these guys are safe with some upside. Boldy should be back opening night so I didn’t drop him. It might be a disservice to have Hintz and Nelson this low, as they are extremely consistent scoring 30 goals. I just have a hard time seeing the Hintz breakthrough I anticipated because the Dallas first line gets amongst the lowest TOI for any top line in the league. The linemates for Nelson are ugly and I think he’s been performing near his ceiling.
I bumped up RNH from my Top 200 list because I simply had him too low. The regression happened as expected, but it was still 67 points with very good PPP. He’s also been fairly durable throughout his career. This is incredibly aggressive with Guenther, and you won’t have to draft him in this range. That said, he was fantastic last season and I can’t wait to see him with Cooley for extended periods. I’m lower on Trocheck again, and it’s nothing against what he’s doing. Maybe I’m completely off base, but I do think that eventually, he could lose PP1 to Lafreniere, which would crater his value.
68) Patrick Kane
69) Juraj Slafkovsky
70) Pavel Buchnevich
71) Brandon Hagel
72) Mason McTavish
73) Lucas Raymond
74) Bo Horvat
75) Evgeni Malkin
76) Jeff Skinner
77) Bryan Rust
78) Jake DeBrusk
79) Martin Necas
Hagel is one of my favorite targets in drafts this season. I probably should have bumped him higher to show that like I did with Guenther. He just had 75 points with elite PIM and decent enough of shots with poor PPP. Now, he should be on the first unit permanently. It’s not outrageous to see a path for Hagel to get to 85+ points. There are so many high upside guys for the Ducks that it’s hard to pick who is the best. Given his experience in the league in tough minutes already, McTavish is my pick. He also has a high floor because of the PIM. There’s a good case for Rust being higher, but he has had injury concerns in the past. This will be the last time Slafkovsky will be in this range.
80) Matt Duchene
81) Jared McCann
82) Elias Lindholm
83) J.J. Peterka
84) Matvei Michkov
85) Logan Cooley
86) Anze Kopitar
87) Dylan Strome
88) Teuvo Teravainen
89) Jack Quinn
90) Dylan Cozens
91) Gabriel Vilardi
92) Troy Terry
93) Alexis Lafreniere
94) Mats Zuccarello
95) Tyler Toffoli
96) Viktor Arvidsson
97) Quinton Byfield
98) Macklin Celebrini
99) Ryan O’Reilly
100) Nick Schmaltz
The two guys who are most likely to blow their rankings out of the water are Michkov and Cooley. I believed Cooley should have been the first pick in his draft for the upside. The shot rate will have to take a jump, but a Robert Thomas-esque season is firmly in play. Michkov is one of the most talented offensive players drafted in recent years. He’s still only 19, but after playing against men in Russia, the transition might be easier. The
Did you know Quinn was 5th in the entire NHL in points/60 at even strength last season? Now, he’s going to get PP1 time as well. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy yet, but he’s had two fluke injuries. If he does… loyal Razzballers know that I’ve historically been very bullish on Arvidsson. He should play with Draisaitl and has massive upside if he stays healthy. The shot rate keeps Byfield down in this range, but the breakout could be upon us. I like him moving back to center with Fiala.
SAFE PLAYERS FOR LATE IN DRAFTS
Frank Vatrano, Blake Coleman, Tyler Bertuzzi, Boone Jenner, Jamie Benn, Claude Giroux, Anthony Duclair, Mark Stone, Trevor Moore, Michael Bunting, Matty Beniers, Drake Batherson, William Karlsson, Ryan Hartman, Tomas Hertl, Vladimir Tarasenko, Yegor Sharangovich, Boone Jenner, Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment, Sam Bennett, Gustav Nyquist, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brayden Schenn, Andrew Mangiapane
These guys get a boost in deeper leagues where there’s value in having safer players at the bottom of your roster. For example, in a standard 12’er, I wouldn’t be looking to draft Giroux. The influx of young talent makes me worried that Vatrano’s role gets reduced a bit. He’s safe in that he’s big shots and PIM, but I struggle to see a repeat of last season. Duclair is a trendy pick for a big season on the Isles. The path is there because they have no alternatives for a top role, but it’s year 11 and Duke has never topped 27 assists. The biggest upside here might be Bunting based solely on his role.
HIGH UPSIDE LATE IN 12’ERS
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Adam Fantilli, Trevor Zegras, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Valeri Nichushkin, Kirill Marchenko, Victor Olofsson, Logan Stankoven, Matthew Knies, Will Smith, William Eklund, Dawson Mercer, Tommy Novak, Reilly Smith, Sean Couturier, Jake Neighbours, Max Domi, Cole Perfetti
In general, I prefer to draft in this tier late in drafts. If they hit, you’re golden. If they don’t, you just cut them and either try someone else or make it a stream spot. PLD gets another chance. Does he actually care enough about hockey to perform again? Time will tell, but we’ve seen a guy push towards the top 50 overall before. There are so many Ducks with huge upside that it’s hard to separate them. Honestly, I’d go by personal preference. Who knows how Big Val looks when he’s back from suspension, but he just played at a 42 goal, 39 assist pace with three shots per game. The upside is undeniable.
Vegas has atrocious wing depth, giving Olofsson a chance to play on the first line and PP1 to open the season. Having watched him extensively in Buffalo, I have a hard time seeing him succeed in a Cassidy system, but he also should be motivating knowing this is his last chance to stick in the NHL. Novak has an incredible opportunity getting to play with Stamkos and Marchessault. Mercer should be locked into the top six and he did score 27 goals two seasons ago. Smith gets a great chance playing with Zibanejad and Kreider.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back tomorrow with ten bold predictions for the upcoming season. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
