In honor of Opening Day in baseball, Filip Forsberg continued an elite season with a 40/40 of his own. Nashville is in the midst of their best run in franchise history with Forsberg leading the charge. On Wednesday, they fell down 3-0 against the other wild card team in the West, the Golden Knights, before the Preds stormed back to win 5-4 in overtime. Forsberg had a goal and two assists, scoring to make the game 4-3 Vegas, then assisting on the tying and winning goals. That brings him to 40 goals and 41 assists and into being the 10th overall forward in fantasy this season. There are a few different things that have caused Forsberg's big season that are different from two seasons ago, when he had 42+42 in 69 games. One, he's over four shots on goal per game. His current shooting percentage is right in line with his career average, unlike two seasons ago when he was running hot. Two, his time on ice is up a bit. Three, the coaching is much better with Brunette. Four, he's stayed healthy, the most important thing. Lastly, he's clicked with RoR, an elite defensive center who can hold his own offensively. This is letting Forsberg crush even strength while continuing to perform on the power play. Forsberg is still only 29 years old, giving us hope that he can repeat this season for the next 1-2 years. Just stay healthy! Let's take a look at some things that happened over the last two nights. A reminder that if you want to maximize your streaming, check out the entire Playoff Manifesto. Let's get to it!
Two division rivals exploded on Saturday, both winning in dominant 9-2 fashion. Not too often nowadays that you see two 9-2 scores. For Toronto, a 9-2 win against the Ducks certainly wasn't expected, but isn't actually shocking either. On the other hand, Florida blowing Tampa Bay out 9-2 after falling behind in the first 30 seconds of the game qualifies as jaw dropping. Florida is arguably the best team in the league right now, dominating in multiple ways. Matthew Tkachuk is fully back, scoring two goals and two assists with ten PIM in the victory, giving him 13 points in the last five games. Carter Verhaeghe scored two goals and an assist with six shots and two PIM against his former team. He's back on the point of the top unit and with Barkov, making him a top 50 player. Sam Bennett had two goals and two assists iwth three shots and ten PIM. Bennett is firmly on the fringe right now as long as he's with Tkachuk. For Toronto, Auston Matthews had a hat trick and two assists with four shots as he scores goals at an unprecedented rate. Bobby McMann had two goals and an assist with four shots, although I'm still not buying in with his workload. He's bumping up to decent streamer for the time being. Also, if you need short term defensemen help, Timothy Liljegren is on PP1 and dished three assists with Rielly still suspended. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's been a long road to recovery for Artturi Lehkonen. With Big Val in the player assistance program, it couldn't have happened at a better time. After being eased back into the lineup, Lehkonen moved onto the top line the game before Tuesday night. While he went to the second line to open the game, Lehkonen blew up against the Capitals, scoring two goals and adding two assists putting five shots on goal in the 6-3 win. There's a few encouraging things here. One, Lehkonen was on the first power play unit. That alone is massive for his value. Additionally, it was Lehkonen, not Drouin, closing the game for the Avs, as Lehkonen scored an empty netter with a minute left from MacKinnon and Rantanen. Even in this role, Lehkonen received 18 minutes, which is plenty to succeed. This puts him right back on the fringe. Gun to head, I lean towards holding, but his schedule in the near term is heavy on busy days, so I see the case for leaving him as an elite streamer. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
After his big breakout last season, Martin Necas has had a rough go of it this season. Much like his team, he's started to turn his game around over the last month. Since coming back from a two week injury on January 19th, when Necas had 9 goals on the season, he has seven goals in seven games, culminating with a natural hat trick in the first period against the Avalanche on Thursday. On top of the goals, Necas has been taking a ton of shots. He's averaging five shots on goal per game in the past seven, with 4+ in six of the last seven games. If you're lucky enough to be in the 20% of leagues that Necas is available in, grab him immediately. If you've held onto him, here's to hoping he keeps up this form to make up for the poor first half. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We're very close to the All-Star break with most teams starting their extended break on Sunday. If you look at defensemen production, specifically in goals, you see notable names at the top. Dahlin leads defensemen in goals, and then there's a four way tie behind him with notables like Makar and Hughes. None of that is a surprise. Weegar is one of those tied with Makar and Hughes, which is very surprising, but he went into the season locked into a big role, so let's assume he had some good fortune. But Thomas Harley? He's a player I really liked in dynasties, but to be one goal off the league lead for defensemen? Not even close to my radar. Harley scored two goals on Saturday, including the overtime winner for a second straight game, in the 5-4 win over the Capitals. That gives Harley a whopping 12 goals in 46 games. "Even with Heiskanen back, Harley was a factor. I’m still holding Harley even though I wasn’t expecting to when Heiskanen came back. He’s been that good for the Stars." And that's me quoting me from three days ago copying what Grey does! Somehow, Harley is still available in almost two-thirds of fantasy leagues. With the pool of defensemen dropping off hard at the bottom, Harley should be owned in all formats. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
I’ll be honest, I don’t have a good open for the weekend post. But “The Wire’ is indisputably the best TV show of all-time. I can watch it every time through and see something I didn’t before. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hello everyone. Welcome to the ninth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Obviously you guys know that I've gone out of order with my rankings, but I had to get my Top 200 out there for everybody's drafts. If you've missed it, you can see those rankings here. Today, I'm going to show you the method behind the madness of my forward rankings. Part one will be out today, part two will be out tomorrow. I'm going to try and get a bold predictions post out on Monday as well, and then the season will be underway. As a heads up, I am going to be in London from Thursday until Tuesday. I will probably only get to the site once per day, but I will be sure to answer everybody's questions on all posts when I get the chance. Thanks for your understanding. And with that, the first half of my forward rankings.
We found a new level of ridiculousness on Thursday night. The Canadiens were in Florida and they managed to tie the record for the most goals in a first period in modern NHL history, and they did it in barely over 13 minutes! Both Montreal goalies allowed 3+ goals in the first 13 minutes, and Sergei Bobrovsky allowed goals on the first three shots he faced. My god. The Panthers ended up winning 9-5 to keep pace in the Eastern playoff race. The only player who made more than two points was Matthew Tkachuk, who had a goal and three assists to keep up his torrid pace. Thanks Aleksander Barkov for not getting three points when I pick him in the three point challenge! Anyways, Florida is battling hard for a Wild Card spot, so expect their studs to get all of the minutes they can handle. For playing all games against Eastern teams the rest of the way, Florida's schedule is fairly soft, so expect it to come down to the wire. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Another star player has made his way to the Eastern Conference well ahead of the trade deadline. We already had Horvat and Tarasenko move, and now we have a former Conn Smythe winner. Ryan O'Reilly was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, along with Noel Acciari, for a bevy of draft picks. The Wild also acquired a pick for retaining salary, and there were prospects involved, but none of them are particularly relevant. For fantasy, we care about RoR and Acciari. Let's start with Acciari because it's easier. Acciari moved right onto Toronto's fourth line. He scored a goal against the Blackhawks on Sunday, and is piling up hits. He'll be a deep league value for his hits and decent goal rate. O'Reilly is an interesting debate. He's easily having the worst offensive season in the last decade. On the other hand, RoR has been playing much better lately, and he went right onto the second line with Tavares and Marner. He dished an assist in his debut on Saturday playing just over 16 minutes in the 5-1 blowout against Montreal. He also won 12 of 14 draws, which is notable that he bumped Tavares from the faceoff circle most of the time. I'm not rushing to pick up RoR, mostly because we know that he's not cracking Toronto's first power play unit. That said, there's upside in Toronto that he couldn't touch in St. Louis again. If you want to stream him on Tuesday against the Sabres and see where it goes, I can get behind that.
Not a bad way for Kevin Fiala to follow up a hat trick. In a new rivalry developing between the Kings and Oilers, Fiala scored two goals and two assists with four shots. That brings Fiala to 10 points in his last five games with his shot rate jumping up quite a bit lately. The new line shuffle seems to be working, and the new Los Angeles All-Star has been fantastic in his first year with the Kings. It's a fantastic stat line across the board that has Fiala comfortably as a top 50 player with upside from there. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
This Nashville Predators team plays nothing like the style we've come to expect from them over the years. They're hemorrhaging chances left and right, especially against top competition. So needless to say, it was always going to be difficult for them to get a result in Carolina. Luckily for them, they have Juuse Saros. Saros had the second most saves in a non-OT game in NHL history on Thursday saving 64(!) shots in the 5-3 win over the Hurricanes. I bet over 30.5 saves for Saros, can I get paid double for him going over twice? Ha! It's going to be hard for Saros to improve in GAA considering the team in front of him, but he's been playing much better lately to the point where the save percentage should be an elite asset once again. Saros is still a #1 fantasy goalie, both for this season and in dynasties. Amazingly, despite making his debut seven seasons ago, he's still only 27 years old. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
