I’m slightly pivoting from my original plan to keep things moving. Today, I’m going to go through the forwards ranked 42-60 in full detail like I have with the first 41 forwards. Then, I’m going to have a post ranking 61-100 where I will still right more than it simply be a list, but I’m going to highlight players that I like or dislike compared to consensus, and limit what I write about players who we know who they are at this point e.g. Kopitar in his last season. If you missed the Top 40 post, you can check that out here. Let’s get to it!
41) Connor Bedard – There’s no sugarcoating it, last season was a disaster for Bedard as he had 23+44 in 82 games, a dropoff from his rookie season. Additionally, his shot rate crumbled from around three per game as a rookie, to below 2.5 per game. To put it simply, this is a bet on the talent. He’s already a dominant power play force, and it should get even better with Rinzel being the PPQB. Nazar should give some support to the second line behind Bedard as well. Obviously the plus-minus is a concern, but he could also smash through a point per game, so it’s a give and take. I acknowledge the dice roll here and am fine with you sliding Bedard down 10-15 spots.
42) Elias Pettersson – Another talent bet, with the difference being we’ve seen Pettersson put up over 100 points. The plummeting shot rate is also a concern here, but I’m betting on that being the outlier. A guy in his prime who scored 30+ for three plus seasons shouldn’t become randomly washed, especially with no injury issues. A complete reset with Miller gone and a new head coach should help get Pettersson back on track. I realize most of this argument is anecdotal, but I’ll weigh the first six years of his career over the smaller sample of last season
43) Logan Cooley – The breakout started last season for Cooley, and I think it gets even better going forward. Cooley had 25+40 in 75 games with just over two shots per game. The shot rate is a bit of a concern, but there’s upside above a point per game here. He’s an elite playmaker who should get a bump with the addition of Peterka as well. My only worry is that he’s off PP1, but are they really going to play Hayton over him? Even with that, he still had 20 PPP last season. Overall, give me the Cooley stock.
44) Jordan Kyrou – Kyrou had this third straight season with 30+ goals and around three shots per game, showing the kind of floor that he has at this point. We’ve also seen him at a point per game before, so there’s more upside too. He’s traditionally been poor at even strength, but last season, he was a surprising +23. The team really took off once Montgomery took over, so this just feels incredibly safe.
45) Wyatt Johnston – This group of forwards is extremely hard to separate and we’re already a bit down to personal preference and team build. There’s a few things working in Johnston’s favor. One, he’s never missed a game. Two, his minutes are steadily starting to increase. Three, all early indications are Johnston is going to be paired with Robertson this season, which improves his linemates from the past, especially if Bourque continues to ascend. Johnston is extremely safe, yet it feels like he has another incremental increase still being 22 years old.
46) Travis Konecny – Konecny set career highs in assists and points last season with 52 and 76 respectively. He’s always been very good at PIM and provides solid hits, which is a nice bump. Originally, I had Konecny in my Top 40, but slid him down a little bit for a few reasons. The shot rate really fell off last season from over three per game to under 2.5 per game. Is this the new norm? I tend to think no, but it’s a bit of risk. He also played 20:36 per game last season, which is quite a lot. There’s a chance for a slight downtick with a new coaching staff. If you want to look at it from a bullish perspective, perhaps the Philly power play improves with Zegras and another year for Michkov.
47) Nico Hischier – Hischier set a career high with 35 goals last season, although a lot of that was buoyed by his shooting percentage. He does carry a bit of injury risk, and the shot rate is down towards average now. Hischier also doesn’t give you much in PIM/hits, so it’s very points heavy. That said, he’s also become a big power play threat, and he’s as good of a bet as any in this range to be right around point per game.
48) Seth Jarvis – I am considering bumping Jarvis up given my love for Ehlers and the presumption that the two play together with Aho. The minutes continue to rise and he repeated the previous season’s point totals despite playing eight less games. I’m not sure how much more upside there is, but there doesn’t really need to be if he stays in the 70-75 point range per 82 games. He does have some room to grow on the power play as well. His value does change depending on format as his PIM are poor, but the hits are solid.
49) Kirill Marchenko – Based on last season, this is far too low for Marchenko, who was the 25th overall forward in PIM leagues last season. He was always a sniper so the 31 goals didn’t surprise me, but I did not expect 43 assists in his bag. There wasn’t much on the power play, which is where there’s a chance to cancel out some regression. The Blue Jackets shot 12.1% as a team with Marchenko on the ice, which is unsustainable. I’m also a bit skeptical Monahan can replicate that season as his center. He might have the most upside in this range, but Marchenko probably has the most downside.
50) Roope Hintz – This might be a bit unfair to Hintz, who bounced back to 28+39 in 76 games. He also has Rantanen on his wing for the full season now, which is obviously a big help. As far as points go, I think Hintz will be back in the 70 range with upside to push point per game. The problem is that Hintz dropped to just over two shots per game, and Hintz does not get the minutes that other 1C’s get. Minutes wise, Johnston is effectively the 1C now, and the third line will get real minutes too. On a different team, Hintz would be higher, but he’s going to easily play the fewest minutes of anyone on this list.
51) Dylan Larkin – After three seasons of being right around a point per game, Larkin took a small step back last year, finishing with 30+40 in 82 games. The shot rate remained very good, but not quite the elite level we were accustommed to. Assuming DeBrincat and Kane stay together, they don’t really have a natural fit for the top line either. I have three Red Wings in the next five, and I feel kind of blah about all of them, like the Red Wings themselves. They’re all clear top 100 players and are perfectly fine, but there’s no excitement there. While he’s generally medicore at even strength, we know we’re getting 30 goals and a good shot rate from Larkin, which is enough to keep him in this range.
52) Kevin Fiala – On one hand, it was nice to see Fiala’s shot rate go back up to three per game, and his 35 goals were a career high. The problem is that his assists dropped significantly down to 25. Looking at the team’s shooting percentage when he was on the ice, it was almost exactly the same as last season, but a huge dropoff from his norm before that. It was both his primary and secondary assists that dropped a ton too, so it doesn’t look primed for Fiala to get back into the 45-50 assist range. That said, even 35+35 would easily slide him into this range, and I did really like how the line looked down the stretch with Byfield turning the corner, so Fiala still seems very safe.
53) John Tavares – I really did not expect a Tavares bounce back, as a 30+35 range seems like an appropriate spot for him to settle in at age 34. Instead, he scored 38 goals, the most he had in a season since his first year in Toronto. Now, there’s definitely some regression coming here. Nineteen percent is not repeating itself, and the Leafs shot a preposterous 13.4% at even strength with Tavares on the ice. The good news is that Nylander should be stapled to his wing, and Nylander is right in the prime of his career. There’s obviously some down side risk for his age 35 season, but Tavares should still be perfectly fine.
54) Alex DeBrincat – If you want safe, DeBrincat is your guy. He’s been right around three shots per game for the past six seasons. He hasn’t missed a game in the past four years, and has only missed four games total in his eight year career. The question is whether or not it’s a year that DeBrincat is scoring in the high 20’s, or if he’s pushing towards 40. DeBrincat is very good on the power play, which is another plus. Looking at it, it really does look like it just comes down to shooting percentage for him on a year to year basis. His stat line is one that I generally like, so I’m perfectly fine with him in this range. Betting on DeBrincat is somewhat of a bet on Kasper, who should be the 2C with DeBrincat and Kane.
55) Lucas Raymond – Based on last season, this is far too low for Raymond. He took another step forward, almost reaching a point per game for the first time with 27+53. The shot rate took a nice jump forward towards average, and he barely misses any time. The problem is that it was almost entirely power play driven, with a whopping 37 points on the PP last season. At even strength, both his primary and secondary assist rate dropped from the previous year. I think it’s more likely Raymond is closer to that 41 assists than the 53. It’s not that 27+45 wouldn’t be appealing, that’s perfectly fine, but he’s always been a big minus player, the hits and PIM are below average, and we know the shot rate isn’t great. Raymond is still only 23, so there is potential improvement, but he does carry some downside when he doesn’t give positive non-points contributions.
56) Alex Tuch – On one hand, some of last season looks fluky for Tuch, who matched a career high with 36 goals. His shooting percentage was a career high 18.4%, and he scored 6 shorthanded goals, which led the league and was double the total from the rest of his career… combined. On the other hand, part of that is generating a lot more breakways and odd man rushes, and the Buffalo shooting percentage at even strength with Tuch on the ice was in line with the past. Tuch thrives in transition, and playing him with McLeod, both on the PK and ES, allows him to play at his strengths. There’s also room for easy PP improvement. Last season’s totals seem reasonable, and he gets a big bump in banger leagues. He set the NHL record for blocks by a forward in a season, and contributes well in PIM.
57) Mathew Barzal – I originally didn’t have Barzal this high, but I decided to mostly throw last season away. The injuries are starting to pile up for Barzal, which is concerning, but it is encouraging that he’s turning into more of a shooter. The minutes are going to be massive under Roy, and we’ve seen two point per game seasons already. There’s more downside than arguably anyone else in this post, as the Isles are somewhat in limbo, but I do think DeAngelo can help fix the power play a bit. That alone should be enough to lock in 70-75 points for Barzal if he stays healthy.
58) Nazem Kadri – What’s not to like about Kadri in fantasy? His shot rate is fantastic, he gets a lot of penalty minutes, and he hasn’t missed a game in three seasons with Calgary. Kadri pushed towards 20 minutes per game, Backlund eats the tough minutes, and Coronato, who I suspect slots on Kadri’s wing, has some breakout potential. He’s not a sexy name, but he’s a virtual lock to return top 100 value.
59) Matthew Knies – Marner’s departure locks Knies into PP1 going forward. I could just end my thoughts there, but that guaranteed usage should bump Knies up into this range. He’s going to play with Matthews all of the time, and he’s still only 22 years old (will play most of the season at 23). He also gets a big boost in banger leagues as Knies piles up massive hit totals.
60) Valeri Nichushkin – On one hand, this ranking is pretty stupid. Always smart to call yourself stupid to conclude the post! Nichushkin hasn’t played more than 54 games in any of the last three seasons, so to call him a massive risk is an understatement. Howevesr, on a per-game basis, he is an absolute monster. Last season, he played at a 40+25 pace with around three shots per game. He’s always good at even strength and gets insane minutes playing with MacKinnon. I’m more likely to take the dice roll in H2H leagues where it’s easier to stream and fill in injured players, as opposed to roto, where injuries tend to cause more damage. If you want to take Big Val off your board entirely because of the risk, I understand. If he somehow manages to stay healthy, he could be a league winner.
That’s all for now guys. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. My plan is to get the rest of the Top 100 forwards out tomorrow. Thanks for reading, take care!
