It’s time to get rolling with my fantasy hockey rankings. Instead of starting with my top 10 and going from there, I’m going to be starting with goaltenders today, defensemen Tuesday, and then forwards and my top 200 by the end of the week. I will be ranking the guys in order, but I am putting more focus on tiers than the exact rankings of players. I will be writing in detail about guys that I aggressive with in my rankings, either because I like them a lot or also don’t want anything to do with them. As a reminder, I will never take a goalie in the first two rounds of a draft. It simply puts you in too much of a hole offensively, and in general, variance rules the day for goaltending. That’s going to be the case even more so this season when they’re only playing 56 games. Let’s get to it!
TIER ONE: THE CREAM OF THE CROP
1) Andrei Vasilevskiy
2) Robin Lehner
3) Carter Hart
4) Connor Hellebuyck
5) Tuukka Rask
Vasilevskiy being ranked one is trivial and needs no explanation at this point. I’m all in on Lehner this year. He’s had a .920 or better save percentage in four of the past five seasons, and now he gets to play on an elite team that should pile up wins. It’s hard to see Lehner finishing outside of the top 10 goalies and there’s a relatively easy path to be #1. Hart was excellent last season after a brutal October. The division is going to be a bloodbath, but I have faith in the Flyers defensively and Hart was incredible in division games last season (1.92/.934). I’m a little worried about Hellebuyck because of the Jets defense, along with the fact that there are some high scoring teams in the Canadian division. However, Hellboy is simply too good to have outside the first tier, especially because there’s a good chance he makes the most starts in the league. At first, I had Rask in tier two because the volume is generally low for a #1 goalie. Ultimately, I decided that his floor is so high (arguably the highest in the league) so he had to be in tier one. Additionally, a shorter season could potentially lead to Rask getting a higher percentage of starts than usual.
TIER TWO: LIKELY NUMBER ONE GOALIE
6) Jordan Binnington
7) Philipp Grubauer
8) Igor Shesterkin
9) Frederik Andersen
All of these goalies but Igor are on elite teams giving you a massive edge in wins. Yes, Binnington fell off a bit last season, but he still won 60% of his starts with okay percentages. With 21 games against California teams plus another seven against the offensively-inept Coyotes, the Blues should improve their defensive numbers from last season back to the level of the second half of 2018-19. That’s not even mentioning Dallas who could be in trouble offensively this year. Grubauer is in the exact same boat as Binnington schedule wise. Andersen’s goals against average is too high to have him ahead of the other guys but Toronto is the favorite in the North for a reason. I think we see Andersen bounce back to his 2017-19 level where his save percentage was in the .918 range. That leaves Shesterkin, who was excellent in his twelve games last year. He’s clearly the riskiest guy in this group, but the upside can’t be denied. If the Rangers can improve even a little bit defensively, Igor should have an elite save percentage.
TIER THREE: WORTH STARTING IN ALMOST EVERY MATCHUP
10) Anton Khudobin
11) Jacob Markstrom
12) Darcy Kuemper
13) Tristan Jarry
14) Semyon Varlamov
15) Sergei Bobrovsky
16) Ilya Samsonov
17) Juuse Saros
18) Carey Price
I was tempted to put Khudobin in the second tier because Ben Bishop is out until at least April. The problem is that Khudobin has never started more than 37 games in a season, and given that he’s 34, I’m not sure how well he’s going to hold up over a condensed season. He’s been outstanding in his two seasons in Dallas, but ultimately, I couldn’t see myself drafting Khudobin over anyone in the second tier so I put him at the top of the third. Markstrom had the best season of his career last year and now finds himself in Calgary. Calgary has four young defensemen that should be in their starting lineup which brings some variance in terms of the defensive play in front of Markstrom. I could see him having a great year, and I could also see him having a .910 sv% and being underwhelming.
Kuemper is the safest guy in the group. Tocchet’s system is outstanding which makes life easier for Kuemper. The wins probably won’t be better than average, but the save percentage and goals against average should be elite. The good news is that there are plenty of goalies in the top two tiers that should be great in wins. Jarry was phenomenal last season, but I’m a little skeptical that he can repeat it. The Pens are aging quickly, and a bottom pair of Matheson-Ceci screams disaster. Varlamov was disappointing in 2019-20 (not counting the playoffs), but his numbers from last season should be the floor given Trotz’ system.
Last year couldn’t have gone any worse for Bob. The last time that he had a miserable season, he won the Vezina the next season. However, the Panthers sure as hell don’t play defense like Columbus. The good news is that the Central Division is arguably the weakest of the four, and Nutivaara and Gudas should help the right side a bit. He could be a top five goalie, he could be unplayable again. If you want to roll the dice, I don’t blame you, and I don’t blame you if you want to fade him completely.
Samsonov impressed in his rookie season and now he’s in full control of the crease in Washington. With the King out for the season and more than likely forced into retirement, there’s a chance that Samsonov is a work horse in his first season as the #1. I think Laviolette should help them defensively, but Washington is nearing the end of their run as a top team. There’s a chance that Samsonov’s season is a pretty big disappointment. Saros has taken over the #1 spot from Rinne, but I’d be surprised if Saros played more than 36 of the 56 games. Hynes should have the Predators playing better defensively and the Central Division is weak, so I could easily see myself moving Saros up in this tier by the time I put together my top 200. Price has bottom end #1 upside and Montreal did improve their team, but the Canadian Division should be fairly high scoring and Price has been poor two of the last three seasons. I’ve been low on Price for almost my entire time writing at Razzball and I don’t see a reason to change that right now.
TIER FOUR: UPSIDE WITH DOWNSIDE
19) John Gibson
20) Petr Mrazek
21) Thatcher Demko
22) Linus Ullmark
23) Cam Talbot
24) Joonas Korpisalo
25) Braden Holtby
26) Elvis Merzlikins
I firmly believe Gibson is a top three goalie in the league, but I have no faith in the team in front of him. You can’t rule out Gibson having a God run and being elite, and the good news is they have a ton of games against the Kings late which could make him a playoff difference maker, but the goals against average will almost certainly be bad. Mrazek goes to an easy division on the second best team there, but he’s coming off a .905 sv%. If he has a .915 sv%, he’d be an elite #2. Demko has tremendous upside, but the most likely scenario is that he splits with Holtby. I don’t mind grabbing both of them and seeing what happens, especially in roto leagues. It’s the exact same deal with the Columbus duo. Do you believe that Ullmark had the sixth best even strength save percentage in the league last season? You should because it’s true! The Sabres penalty kill was so bad last season which hurt Ullmark, but it’s hard to imagine it being that bad again. His numbers last season were of a decent #2 and he should get an even bigger workload. My only pause is the division being so good. That said, I really want Ullmark as my #3. I kind of want to move Talbot up but at the same time, it’s Cam Talbot. He was very good with Calgary last year with a .919, but it was only in 26 games (22 starts). Minnesota has the chance of being decent, especially in that division, so he would be another great #3 if possible.
TIER FIVE: ELITE BACKUPS AND SOME LEFTOVERS
27) Corey Crawford
28) MacKenzie Blackwood
29) Mikko Koskinen
30) Marc-Andre Fleury
31) Pekka Rinne
32) Jaroslav Halak
33) Pavel Francouz
34) Ilya Sorokin
I don’t know what to do with the Devils tandem. They both had decent seasons last year, but that team is in a really tough spot in that division. I just don’t see a path to them even being decent in wins or GAA. The save percentages could be decent though. On the other hand, Koskinen has some wins upside, although it’s far from a guarantee. However, the GAA is a near lock to be poor given their defense and a potentially high scoring division. I would start Fleury, Halak, and Francouz in every game that they play. If you have deep benches, I could see holding them, but at the least, they’re elite streamers. Rinne was downright awful last season, but you can’t rule out a bounce back. That said, he’s 38 so I don’t want to bank on it. Sorokin is the future for the Islanders, but I don’t see the volume being there. There’s no chance he gets many games early in the season as he gets acclimated to the NHL. Perhaps he plays well enough to get more games late, or the Islanders disappoint a bit, but he’s a big wild card.
TIER SIX: DESPERATION PLAYS
35) Thomas Greiss
36) Matt Murray
37) Jonathan Quick
38) Devan Dubnyk
39) Collin Delia
40) Martin Jones
41) Malcolm Subban
I want nothing to do with these guys. There’s a path to them being good in one category, but it’s very hard to see them being good at two. If I had to pick one to surprise, I guess it would be Delia? These guys only have value in leagues where you need goaltending starts; I don’t see many situations where you’ll want to stream any of them this year.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back tomorrow with my defensemen tiers. Please ask any questions, give any comments, or make any suggestions below; it would be great to hear from all of the loyal readers. Thanks for reading, take care!
