Fantasy Hockey Advice

Alexander Semin becomes a free agent this year, but you shouldn’t care. Even presuming the 28 year old doesn’t return to Mother Russia, Semin has left a stain on fantasy stats for two years running. The conclusion of this season marked back to back 54 point campaigns, and this time around he played 17 more games. He only managed 21 goals in 77 games, his lowest total since 10 in 52 games back in 2003-04. Semin used to have a fluid game, but the past couple of seasons he’s gunked up.

Can be rebound? This isn’t basketball, son. Oh, wait, you mean can he bounce back. Well…possibly. He hasn’t made more than 200 shots on goal in the past two seasons, so conceivably if he puts the puck towards the net more often, Semin may spurt a few more between the pipes. If he returns to Washington, a new coach(ing system) may revitalize him. He may go somewhere else and find a better offensive system to work within. I guess we’ll make that call when he finally determines where he wants to go, but even before we get that far, I say let someone else collect Semin for their team next year.

It’s always interesting to take a look at players who exceeded expectations with career years (or even returning to past glory). Here’s three of ‘em:

Radim Vrbata - In 77 games, he scored 35 goals (8 above his prior career high), tallied 27 assists and put up a +24 (17 above his prior career high). His 62 points helped lead Phoenix to the postseason. Where did this come from? Well, it’s not like he was a dud. He averaged 45.5 points over his last two years with Phoenix, and in ’07-’08 (his first go around with the coyotes), he scored 56 points. Phoenix has a good team, which will help elevate a good player to a really good I wish I drafted him late player. Considering he will only be 31 next season, I would look to draft him in the mid rounds. Even if he falls back a little, 45 points isn’t going to break your team, and the chance for upside is worth it.

James Neal - This guy has always had potential, but he’s been banged around like a free whore in Singapore. Despite that, I don’t think anyone thought a healthy Neal would produce 40 goals and 41 assists, but there you go. It helps being on the same line as Sidney Crosby. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that this 81 point season was part of his evolution as a player. Nevertheless, I’m not willing to bet your unborn baby that he reaches 80 points again, but I would double down fetus that he makes 70 points on that high octane Pittsburgh team.

Joffrey Lupul - Many, many years ago, this was a guy who could give you 20 goals and 25 assists. Injuries took the wind out of his sails, and he was just afloat on a sea of disappointment. Well, ’11-’12 rolled around, and for a sort of full season of 66 games, Lupul scored 25 goals with 42 assists. Has Joffrey finally ascended to the throne? Well, the man is still under 30 and showed potential early in his career, but on that team I’m not expecting him to reach 67 points again. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him reach 53 points, but what do I know? I can’t even make a smooth Game of Thrones reference.

I recently marked the occasion when I escaped from my mother’s womb (by which I mean built in a factory). This year it’s a milestone: I turned 30, which means hippies can no longer trust me. You may not trust me, either, because that Fantasy Hockey Degree from Razzball University is actually a phony. Nevertheless, you don’t need a diploma to rattle off the best players who are my age.

Marian Gaborik (2/14/82) – Easily the best player to be born the same year as Blade Runner, ET: The Extra Terrestrial, Conan The Barbarian, First Blood…oh, wait, this isn’t a movie blog (although share your favorite 1982 movie in comments, if you want). Anyway, easily the best player born in 1982, he’s averaged a 0.9 points per game average over his 11 season career. He has 324 career goals and should easily reach the 500 mark. He also sports a solid +92, a nice bonus for fantasy value.

Scott Hartnell (6/18/82) – Although he hasn’t learned how to stop skating without slaming into the boards, he has learned how to score. This past season, he earned 67 points, including 37 goals, both far and away career highs. He has also tallied greater than 125 PIM since ’07-’08, and has a pretty respectable +59 over his career. He will definitely be targeted in fantasy drafts next season and likely won’t make it past the 5th round.

Jason Pominville (11/30/82) – Pommy hit the NHL rather late, earning regular ice time at the age of 23. He peaked at age 25 with 80 points, and has since been on the decline. This past season, he turned it all around, getting 73 points (his highest since ’07-’08), of which 30 of those were goals (highest since ’06-’07). That’s a 21 point gain from the year prior (although, to be a little fair, he played in 9 fewer games).

Michael Cammalleri (6/8/1982) – And with Michael, we start to see a sharp decline in my fellow birthyear-mates. He hasn’t played a full season since ’08-’09, which, not coincidentally, is the last time he scored over 50 points. In fact, that year, he scored 82, 19 of which came on the power play. After going to Montreal, he tallied 50 points in 65 games and 47 points in 67 games. Between Montreal and Calgary last season, he only collected 41 points in 66 games, with a disappointing -10 and 3 power play points. The change of scenery didn’t help, and next year could mark the first season under 40 points since an abbreviated ’03-’04 season. The Red Wings may throw calamari on the ice, but no one outside of deep leagues should put Cammalleri on the ice in ’12-’13.

Tomas Plekanec (10/31/82) – This Halloween baby is perhaps the last of the respectable players born thirty years ago. His career year was ’09-’10, wherein he scored 70 points in 82 games. Last season, he only got 52 points in 81 games. He also had an abysmal -15 on the year. If there’s one thing going for him, it’s his erratic ability to score. The season before his 70 point highlight, he earned 39 points in 80 games. Who knows, maybe he scored 65 points next season. I wouldn’t count on it, but miracles on ice have been known to happen from time to time.

Telling you about Russian phenom Nail Yakupov is like telling you about Sidney Crosby in 2004. If you know anything about hockey, chances are you know about this 18 year old stud from Nizhnekamsk, Russia (yes, he was born after the fall of the Soviet Union…feel old?). Well, regardless, I’m going to tell you a little about the guy that sounds like an old school Bond villain.

Yakupov has played two seasons with the Sarnia Sting of the Ontario Hockey League. In his first season, he played 65 games and tallied 49 goals, 52 assists, 71 penalty minutes and a -2 rating. A year later, he played in only 42 games but scored 31 goals with 38 assists, increasing his points per game ever so slightly (from 1.55 to 1.64). He also raised his rating to +15, although obviously that’s more of a team dependent stat than the others. In the Western Conference Quarterfinals, he played 6 games and scored 2 goals with 3 assists. His team lost, but clearly it was not because of Yakupov’s failings (unless you expected him to get 7 goals and 10 assists, in which case you are just too demanding).

When the NHL Entry Draft occurs at the end of June in Pittsburgh, it would surprise everyone from Altoona to Moscow if the Edmonton Oilers didn’t use their #1 pick on Yakupov. He would be best served on the same line as Smyth (Hall?) and Nugent-Hopkins, but who knows how Tom Renney will decide to work him into the team (although a line of three #1 picks would be amazing). The fact is, Yapukov is an elite talent, and even on a lesser line surrounded by lesser players, he will still be a major source for points. I don’t think it will take him long to find his sea legs (partlybecause he plays on ice, not water), and I would go so far as to rank him in the top ten for next year’s draft. Arguable? Fine, but I think there is no debate he will be a top 20 player. In a keeper league where he’s still available, I would go after him harder than if you were Pepe Le Pew and Yakupov just got a stripe of white paint down his back.

Some prior #1 picks: Kovalchuk, Nash, Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares. Don’t be shy on draft day.

2012-2013 (conservative) predictions: 37 goals, 41 assists, 63 PIM, -3 (because he plays for Edmonton, after all).

12:22 a.m. - Well folks, it was fun. This series can still go either way, and we have some other fun playoff hockey as well. The New Jersey/Philadelphia series should be tough, the Predators came back (intentionally shorthanded) to close the gap against the Coyotes, and the Blues are too good not to bounce back against L.A. Have a good night, everyone, and maybe we’ll have to do this again if we see a Game 7.

12:19 a.m. - Of the 8 match-ups last round, 6 of the game 3 winners went on to win the series. When I was talking to myself earlier today yesterday, I was saying that after Game 7, Game 3 is the most important game in a playoff series. My internal voice then asked me what about Game 6, and then we fought and I woke up without pants on.

12:16 a.m. - “Are there any nutrition secrets during a long overtime?” Hmm, I’m surprised Brad Richards ended the interview after that question.

12:15 a.m.  - It was only a matter of time before one squeaked in. There were 95 shots on goal.

12:14 a.m. - Gaborik with his first goal since game one of the last round, finishes with the game winner and an assist from, like, three hours ago. Rangers win!

12:12 a.m. - The puck had enough and left the game.

12:11 a.m. - Just intense. Lundvist makes another nice save, bodies are flying everywhere…

12:09 a.m. - Almost, not quite.

12:07 a.m. - Ovechkin eats like a raccoon.

12:04 a.m. - The Rangers have had a ton of opportunities. Only one goal.

12:02 a.m. - NHL arenas play the best music. Nice to hear Washington play Living After Midnight.

12:01 a.m. - Lundqvist with a glove save. 7th OT is on the horizon.

12:00 a.m. - Oh, good, tomorrow is now today here on the East Coast.

11:57 p.m. - I am so on edge, I haven’t even been able to drink since the 3rd period. What a grab by Holtby!

11:55 p.m.  - Apparently Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur had a gay pregnancy and it resulted in Holtby.

11:52 p.m. - Penalty on the Caps. This would probably mean something if the Rangers were any good at capitalizing on power play opportunities.

11:50 p.m. - NBC gives a shout out to Chinatown.

11:47 p.m. - Both teams took less shots in the 2nd OT. Credit defense and tired bodies. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends within the first 5 minutes. All it takes is one mistake, and after 5 periods of hockey, worn down players make mistakes. This mind boggling analysis is brought to you by my high anxiety.

11:43 p.m. - So, 22 year old Braden Holtby played just 7 games in the regular season, but stopped 177 of 192 for a .922 SV% and a 2.49 GAA. His numbers with the Hershey Bears were comparable, I suppose, and he showed skill last year in limited time with the Caps, but he still came as a surprise to me. He is probably the MVP of the playoffs for Washington thus far.

11:39 p.m. - They have been showing the weirdest commercials during this game, including a smoker who looks like a burn victim speaking with a robot’s voice and a farmland dating service.

11:35 p.m. - Through five periods, Lundqvist has stopped 43 of 44 shots, Holtby 42 of 43.

11:32 p.m. - 16.7 seconds left in double OT. Are you kidding me? This game is insane.