After yesterday’s post breaking down my 10 most undervalued players (you can read that here), it’s time to do the ten most overvalued.  I’ll be following the same format as yesterday telling you why I feel that way about each of these players.  Let’s get right to it!

Carey Price – A good playoffs has people believing in Price again.  I’ll value the past three seasons more than a ten game sample size in the bubble.  Price was solid two seasons ago, but he was below average last season and was dreadful in 2017-18.  I do like Montreal this season, but it’s not because of Price.  He’s the #9 goalie on FantasyPros, which is simply far too high.  I’m comfortable with Price as my #2 if I wait, but you’re asking for disaster if he’s your #1 goalie this season.

Ilya Samsonov – The hype has reached a level I didn’t expect.  Samsonov was decent last season with a .913 sv% in his 26 games, but that’s nothing to write home about.  Here’s why I’m worried about him.  One, he hasn’t been a work horse before.  Given how poor the backup goalie is likely to be, I’m afraid he could get pushed too hard.  Two, the division is absolutely brutal.  They traded out Carolina and Columbus for Boston and Buffalo.  Boston is basically the better version of Carolina and Buffalo should score more goals this year than Columbus would.  Three, I’m a bit worried about the Capitals in general.  Their core took a step back last season to the point where I don’t think they’re a playoff lock.  He’s ranked as a top 7 goalie by the Yahoo staff and Pianowski, and #11 overall on FantasyPros.  I can see the path to success because teams under Laviolette have historically started off extremely well in his first season there, but Samsonov would be a very risky #1 goalie.

Keith Yandle – At this point, Yandle’s best asset is that he plays every game every season.  Last year, he was still the face of AAGNOF (for those new, this means “Assist’s ain’t got no face!”  He’s going to give you assists and that’s it.)  The shot rate fell below two per game for the first time in over ten years, the PIM dried up, and more importantly, the minutes took a big hit.  Quenneville clearly didn’t trust Yandle, who is now 34, as much as Boughner did.  Additionally, I’m concerned with Yandle’s specialty, his power play prowess, in two ways.  One, he’s not even skating on the first unit right now.  That could easily change, but there’s a chance he’s on PP2.  Two, and more importantly, the Panthers power play takes a big hit with the departure of Hoffman and Dadonov, especially Hoffman.  Everything is trending in the wrong direction for Yandle to the point where I don’t want to own him.  He’ll be long gone before it gets to a point where I’d draft him.  I think there’s even an outside chance that he becomes a drop during this season.

Ivan Provorov – I didn’t expect to have Provorov here as I do like him, but he’s ranked as a top 15 defensemen on Yahoo and top 20 on FantasyPros.  That’s simply too rich for my blood.  He’s solid across the board, but that’s a guy I want as my #3, not as my #2.  There’s also some downside if Gostisbehere or Gustafsson end up taking the spot on the top power play unit.  As good as Provorov is, I think they’re both better options on the power play.  If that happens, Provorov will still be a hold, but a bottom end one.  He’s a little short on both upside and floor for my liking as a top 20 guy.

Seth Jones – I’ve said my piece on Jones too many times to count so I’ll make it quick.  He’s a good but not elite defenseman who received PP1 time his two big seasons and won’t get it anymore barring a Werenski injury.  The floor is high, but there’s very little upside.  Drafting him as your second defenseman would be a big mistake.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – He has the name recognition, but OEL hasn’t been valuable in four straight seasons.  He’s a plus-minus black hole, the shot rate continues to drop, and his power play points have really dropped.  With a natural replacement in Chychrun, I’m not convinced he even keeps the top spot for the full season.  I wouldn’t even draft him.

Johnny Gaudreau – Like Price, Gaudreau is seemingly on my list every season.  At first glance, you see that I have Gaudreau at 50th overall and consensus is 38th.  Not that big of a gap, but worth noting.  However, he’s here for a big reason.  He’s ranked 45th on Yahoo, a site that uses hits in their standard categories.  You know how many hits Gaudreau had last season?  One!  Yes, one the entire season!  A lot of the readers use hits as a default, and if that’s the case, please stay away from Gaudreau.  He shouldn’t even sniff the top 100 in that format.

Aleksander Barkov – I feel bad even having Barkov on this list with how good he is in real hockey, but this is fantasy.  He’s ranked 23rd overall when I have him 43rd.  Like I mentioned above with Yandle, I’m concerned about the Panthers power play.  A drop off there could put Barkov around 45-50 points in the shortened season, which is fine, but not second round worthy.  The shots are good but not great, and the PIM are non-existent.  The hits are poor as well for those of you in hits league.  It’s the same case I made about Gaudreau in the past when ranked this high.  You’re drafting Barkov for his ceiling this high, and the odds are he falls short.

Alexander Radulov – I was surprised to see Radulov ranked as high as he was.  He’s 34 years old, his minutes took a big drop last season, Seguin is out until at least April, and his shot rate fell off a cliff.  Otherwise, everything’s fine!  In all seriousness, he would be a late round pick for me now.  I’m not a big fan of Dallas offensively, and even less so of the Kiviranta-Pavelski-Radulov line.  If you have hope, it’s that he becomes more of a focal point on the power play with Seguin down, but I’m not buying a bounce back.

Phil Kessel – Everything went in the wrong direction for Kessel in his first season in Arizona.  He was absolutely dreadful at even strength, and no surprise, his PPP fell off drastically not being on Pittsburgh.  He will get 24 games against the California teams, but I’m not sure it matters at all.  The Coyotes are going to struggle significantly on offense and I simply don’t want to draft Kessel at all, even with a very late pick.

That’s all for now guys.  I’ll be back on Monday with some bold predictions for next season.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below.  Thanks for reading, take care!

  1. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    i’m in a start up dynasty where you can keep team based players (20 teamer with hits/blocks/faceoffs/PPP/SHP/shots added), predraft the max is 200 budget, then another 100 to use in draft after that. guys at a certain point are free and anybody not over 100 season games for skaters/50 for goalies can be put on 5 max player prospect list (and aren’t kept to active roster). i’m STL and these are options, i got it down to either keeping schwartz or senko (will try to auction win the other one later, plus perron or sanford). obv senko’s 3 str shoulder surgeries in less than 3 years to same shoulder while never staying healthy more than maybe 2ish months the times he does come back give me pause or this would be easy him. need to have 9 STL players at all times in season and only players we can keep predraft are our team guys.
    r.o’reilly C (28.125002)
    binnington G (26.846593)
    krug D (24.502844)
    b.schenn C/RW (24.431821)
    hoffman LW/RW (24.218753)
    perron LW/RW (23.437503)
    r.thomas C/RW (23.366481)
    j.schwartz LW (21.661936)
    tarasenko RW (20.241482)
    z.sanford LW (16.76137)
    kyrou C/RW (9.303986)
    parayko D (7.599441)
    v.dunn D (6.463078)
    perunovich D (5.113647, to prospect but later, since i’m paying for him might as well have more money left per slot, which i’m already on the low side, putting him to prospect right now means less money for 1 more slot to draft, but it’s an option)
    kostin rw (free, to prospect)
    husso g (free, to prospect)

    i’m cutting dunn, perron (older than the others), sanford (he won’t cost much to get back later) and would have to not keep predraft one of senko/schwartz (money works either way, barely). can fill the prospect slots later, but post draft i’ll have at least those possibly decent STL 3. husso likely only called up in event of injury, but if i didn’t keep (it’s free anyway) somebody else might draft, then i’m one injury from losing my team’s goalie. we were going to do a prospect draft but it took us so long to fill up we probably don’t have time. in season you can send down/call up/add to prospect list till a guy hits 100/50.

    • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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      2. faulk for free is an option too but he hasn’t been good in years, and isn’t that good for d-men in hits nor blocks either. only reason to do that would be i’d end up with more money left per slot. but i’d almost but not quite rather stream it then have to hold him and play him all the time, i might just be better off without him. also he doesn’t appear to be getting any PP time with hoffman in tow now. parayko still on PP2 with dunn. if/when perunovich would come up clearly he’s a PP type (his only negative is i have no clue how many hits/blocks he’ll get, it might be bad). i was able to suck up perunovich in another 16 team dynasty like the day the NHL shutdown last year. his college stats are bat shit for like 2 years now (and unlike say r.merkley another high offensive upside d prospect i’ve not yet read anything about him being bad at D either).

      oh i forgot we start exact same real life rosters too. as many active goalies from one team as you want, and UP TO 1 from a 2nd team (this rule works great for 16-20 teamers, allows everybody to get to min starts per week if they are actively trying to almost always, while preventing hoarding (assuming max IR/IR+ slots, which we have here).

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      First off, I wouldn’t touch Faulk, he’s just not good in fantasy at this point.

      Man, I would have a tough time cutting Perron, but I get that you have the money crunch. Agree with Dunn and Sanford for sure. I think I’d throw back Tarasenko only because less people would presumably be interested in him since he’s out a month of the season at least, where Schwartz should be getting top 6 minutes right off the start.

      • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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        that was my first thought too, about senko’s value being cheaper in auction itself, but then i got worried that being dynasty he’d still go for quite higher relative to some of my other keepers. he’s still only 29, but his upside and injury possibly career downside are both high.

        • Viz

          Viz says:
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          Right for sure, tough spot to be in, but ultimately I think we’re on the same page, it’s a toss up between those two and you can go either way really

          • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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            yeah it’s not good when 2 other shoulder surgeries on same shoulder clearly didn’t make you have a healthy shoulder, and now we’re waiting after the 3rd one in less than 3 years. if this was a back or knee thing i’d just be out forever on him, if baseball i’d be out already. almost never in hockey hear about anybody having a ruined career from a shoulder obviously (for back see a.steen (albeit he was old anyway)) so till lately (i.e. needing a THIRD surgery after the 1st 2 clearly didn’t fix it) i wasn’t worried about him long term.

  2. jasen James says:
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    Hey Viz,
    What do you think of this draft? 14 teams. Standard Yahoo scoring
    1(3)Mackinnon
    2(26)Laine-was supposed to be Malkin. Thought he was first in my queue
    3(31)Lehner
    4(54)Hughes
    5(59)Grubauer-hindsight couldve maybe waited a round with my 1 goalie locked up
    6(82)Theodore
    7(87)Boeser
    8(110)Barrie
    9(115)Fiala
    10(138)Kadri
    11(143)Gibson
    12(166)Hertl
    13(171)Bjorkstrand
    14(194)D.Toews
    15(199)Seguin-bit of a panic pick. IR stash
    16(222)R.Thomas

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Overall, I really like it! Sucks you didn’t get Malkin and I agree you probably could have waited on Grubauer, but I really like who you filled out the roster. It’s fine with Seguin that late, I think he’s the better move anyways than drafting whoever late because odds are, you can pick up someone and now you get Seguin too. Nicely done

  3. Gerald says:
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    Sweeet write ups. I like the overrated /underrated sections.

    Thoughts on Tarasenko and Johnathon toews? I noticed they werent in your top 200 what round would you target either in deeper league?

    Do you think byfield is worth owning in a 16 team league?

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Thanks Gerald! Appreciate it a lot, hope you’re doing well.

      Tarasenko has the chance to come back sooner than I anticipated, so I’m okay with taking him in a deeper league maybe around 175 overall? I don’t know, maybe a bit later, I’m worried about a recurring injury in the shoulder.

      Toews I’m just not touching. Maybe it hurts me, but I’m generally lower on him than consensus anyways, and we don’t know how serious this is for him. I mean, there’s a chance he never plays this season. Unlike Tarasenko, I don’t think the upside is worth gambling on, so he’s off my board completely.

      As for Byfield, maybe with a very late pick, but even though I like him long term, I don’t love him as much as a normal second overall pick, and I don’t see much of an opportunity for him this year. I’d rather gamble on upside elsewhere in general

  4. goodfold2 says:
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    sure appears corona times have more affected hockey fantasy owners than in baseball/football for sure, that along with NHL not announcing when they’d restart until like 3 weeks before it happens playing a likely role (hockey already has less owners than football/baseball so disturbance in the force hurts them more than those 2). anyhoo i got these 2 leagues to hopefully fill, quickly. i’m trying to every which place i can think of, might as well include here. i’ll stick this in the forum 2. both of these have almost identical settings:
    – scoring, the same in both outside of faceoff wins and losses in the roto one, and shot % in the roto one
    – rosters, same in both, same as real life (both with max prospect list of 7)
    – in season have to have min 6 of team named players from your name (real life trade/signing changing you from legal to illegal a few days leeway time). prospects/injured count.
    – max goalie rule: as many as you want from 1 real life team, up to 1 from a 2nd real life team (doesn’t apply to prospect list or injured)

    drafts for both mon/tues 8:30 pm eastern. the h2h league is fantrax premium (that’s calendar year, unlike espn/yahoo we exist all year for trades and stuff); so in that one the prospects can be slotted to your roster (till they hit 100/50 games for skaters/goalies) in prospect slots (max 7). in the roto it’s not premium so you have to check the list (in comish note at top of page) before adding a prospect elig guy. a spot in message board is used for adjustments to that list. the h2h premium league costs $6.25 a year to fantrax (i don’t touch this money, i wouldn’t ask anybody i’ve never to trust me with their money. you can pay by paypal/echeck/debit card, and fantrax shows a record of who paid and when), the roto league is completely free.

    the h2h one:
    – 16 teamer with 7 prospect slots (max 100 season games for skaters/50 for goalies). all teams in season must have minimum 6 players from team of their name.

    – rosters: same as real life (23 active max, 4 C, 4 LW, 4 RW, 6 D, 1 G). infinite IR slots, 7 max prospect slots. anybody with a flag of any kind can be IR slotted, but due to that anybody that’s not active, suspended, IR cannot be added from FA to prevent hoarding. anybody in any condition can be drafted. anybody with just a red flag (shorter term injury) can be added from FA. previous to draft anybody that has a flag can be slotted into IR slots, anybody without flag cannot and must be either in prospect slot or active slot, or dropped.

    – scoring: goals, assists, plus/minus, PIMs, shots, PPP, SHP, faceoffs won, hits, blocks, standard goalie stuff. max 10 adds per week

    – max goalie rule: as many as you want from 1 real life team and UP TO 1 from a 2nd team. doesn’t apply to IR or prospect slots (does apply the sec you take somebody out of IR slot or call up prospect)

    teams available:

    2. DAL: (has 13th pick in all rounds except 2nd)
    – forwards: j.benn, couture, eberle, galchenyuk, hertl, labanc, laughton, toffoli, debrincat, coyle, radulov, j.staal, haula, tarasenko, seguin, r.strome
    – defense: cernak, klingberg, lindell, chariot, dumba, giordano
    – goalies: f.andersen, campbell, varlamov
    – prospect elig: steel, samsonov, fabbro, n.suzuki, kubalik, brannstrom, tolvanen, gurianov

    5. CAR (has 1.5, 2.7, 3.8, 6th in all later rounds)
    – forwards: henrique, r.johansen, paquette, turris, aho, t.meier, nugent-hopkins, simmonds, teravainen, m.tkachuk, gourde, stamkos
    – defense: c.fowler, d.hamilton, de haan, j.johnson, slavin, maatta, h.lindholm
    – goalies: dell, mrazek, reimer
    – prospect elig: j.hughes, necas, nedeljkovic, a.forsberg, puistola, denisenko, r.suzuki, a.honka, ma bernier, p.myers, a.nylander, a.boqvist

    6. FLA (has the 1.6, 2.2, 3.4 then 5th in all later rounds)
    – forwards: barkov, bozak, tierney, trocheck, zibanejad, bertuzzi, j.bratt, huberdeau, kreider, donato, o.sundqvist, m.granlund, t.wilson, kessel, wallmark, ferland, sceviour
    – defense: ekblad, gustafsson, mcnabb, zaitsev, c.murphy, sergachev
    – goalies: saros, dubnyk
    – prospect elig: husso, borgstrom, m.mcleod, rasmussen, tippett, yamamoto, chowlowski

    8. VGK (has the 2.12, 3.9, 3.12 and 12th in all later rounds)
    – forwards: dvorak, hayes, eller, w.karlsson, connolly, killorn, t.johnson, marchessault, zucker, mangiapane, palmieri, virtanen, donskoi, silfverberg
    – defense: brodin, r.andersson, goligoski, theodore, weegar
    – goalies: binnington, blackwood, schneider
    – prospect elig: u.p. luukkonen, krebs, marino, vilardi, j.norris, dorofeyev, j.dugan

    draft is jan 12th 8:30 pm eastern

    2. here is the roto one:
    – 16 teamer with 7 prospect slots (max 100 season games for skaters/50 for goalies). all teams in season must have minimum 6 players from team of their name.

    – rosters: same as real life (23 active max, 4 C, 4 LW, 4 RW, 6 D, 1 G). infinite IR slots, 7 max prospect slots. anybody with a flag of any kind can be IR slotted, but due to that anybody that’s not active, suspended, IR cannot be added from FA to prevent hoarding. anybody in any condition can be drafted. anybody with just a red flag (shorter term injury) can be added from FA. previous to draft anybody that has a flag can be slotted into IR slots, anybody without flag cannot and must be either in prospect slot or active slot, or dropped.

    – scoring: goals, assists, plus/minus, PIMs, shots, PPP, SHP, faceoffs won, hits, blocks, standard goalie stuff.

    – max goalie rule: as many as you want from 1 real life team and UP TO 1 from a 2nd team. doesn’t apply to IR or prospect slots (does apply the sec you take somebody out of IR slot or call up prospect)

    teams available:

    1. WIN (has the 11th pick in all rounds)
    forwards: scheifele, wheeler, k.connor, ehlers, f.forsberg, w.nylander, foligno, jenner, m.backlund, roslovic, perreault, dal colle, lowry, zajac, s.bennett, simmonds
    defense: deangelo, hanifin, morrissey, myers, trouba, weegar
    goalies: hellybuyck, halak, brossoit
    prospect list: farabee, cozens, vesalainen, comrie, nedeljkovic, s.niku

    2. MIN (has the 1st pick in all rounds)
    forwards: j.hughes, e.staal, kopitar, tuch, j.neal, m.granlund, m.koivu, j.staal, carter, greenway, parise, m.wood, compher, kunin, sheary
    defense: pietrangelo, r.suter, ekblad, fabbro, j.moore, dekeyser, muzzin, brodin,
    goalies: markstrom, dubnyk
    prospect list: vilardi, n.foote, boldy, borgstrom, m.dipietro, kylington, e.svechnikov

    3. DAL (7th in all rounds)
    forwards: barzal, j.benn, rantanen, gaudreau, pastrnak, soderberg, k,kapanen, perron, radulov, r.johansen, pavelski, mikheyev, milano, m.thachuk, seguin, nyquist
    defense: gavrikov, lindell, pelech, klingberg, r.ellis, graves, gustafsson, zadorov
    goalies: korpisalo, merzlikins, varlamov
    prospect list: knight, newhook, dobson, prokhorkin, brannstrom, c.primeau, gurianov

    6. DET (5th in all rounds)
    forwards: hischier, mackinnon, bemstrom, kakko, larkin, crouse, bjorkstrand, glass, lemieux, barbashev, duclair, bertuzzi, niederriter, vatrano, mantha, reaves
    defense: doughty, dumba, hronek, jokiharju, s.jones, johns, chowlowski, a.boqvist
    prospect list: rasmussen, elvenes, g.lindstrom, dellandrea, seider, c.mcmichael, kravtsov

    7. BOS (6th in all rounds)
    forwards: marchand, bergeron, duchesne, spezza, tavares, debrusk, hyman, kuraly, brassard, eberle, palmieri, toffoli
    defense: chara, dermott, heiskanen, brodie, holl, krug, leddy, weber, ceci
    goalies: rask, kuemper
    prospect list: zboril, lanigan, n.foote, hayton

    draft is jan 11th 8:30 pm eastern

    • goodfold2 says:
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      [email protected] for interest. DAL in the roto league got taken just now.

  5. Mordacious Levator says:
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    that 12 teamer (faceoffs/hits/blocks/PPP/shots/points added, and goals against for goalies, so you don’t want to send out the trash starts unless you need to), keep 7 i just finished. kept no goalies, 14 from the other 11 owners were, then by my pick (snake i’m 12th in odd rounds) another 2 went away.
    C (2): mackinnon (K), dubois (K), k.hayes (13th, you see this guy’s linemates?, on 1st PP too, and faceoffs/shots/decent hits),
    LW (2): e.kane (K), rust (RW, didn’t keep as i knew he was super cheap, 5th)
    RW (2): t.meier (LW, K), rantanen (K)
    W (2): bertuzzi (LW/RW, 12th), mantha (LW/RW, 7th, both got the DET value bump down)
    F (2): kadri (C, K), backstrom (C, 2nd, with points and faceoffs and PPP, this guy is still a star in this scoring)
    util (1): trocheck (hits/faceoffs/shots/PPP cheap too, C, 9th)
    D (6): d.hamilton (K), barrie (4th), nurse (6th), grzelyck (10th), borowecki (14th), chychrun (15th), e.gustafsson (you know PHI has 2 of these according to yahoo, 17th)
    G (2): grubauer (1st), bob (3rd), ullmark (8th)
    BN: duclair (LW/RW 16th, this guy also has sick linemates and shots/hits), henrique (C/LW a top line center that counts as LW, thanks, hits/shots/faceoffs too, 11th)

    i went by a lot of leftwinglock’s draft kit, in which you can input your own league specs and it ranks them into the 500’s and updates their projections often. yours for goalie ranks mostly. i might’ve been able to wait on goalie 2, but there were a good amount gone by that point and i draft at the turn. i have a solid crew without having to keep any or pay a ton though as we start in the 8th round after keepers really. ullmark was esp cheap.

    • Mordacious Levator says:
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      i didn’t blindly follow what their projections spit out though, otherwise i’d have drafted vatrano far earlier than others i did.

    • Viz

      Viz says:
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      Looks pretty good, especially if Bob gets back on track. If he does, it’s going to be hard for you to lose. Don’t even see a pick that I don’t like to be honest

      • Mordacious Levator says:
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        no good reason why the top 2 wingers on DET’s only good (quite good) line cost that. till bob is back, just nab driedger, or raanta, or an upside (i can’t believe quick is still starting, it doesn’t make sense) backup, cal petersen (who i’ve been obtaining in any dynasty clearly, esp since he didn’t come from the top of goalie dynasty prospect rankings to what he’s ranked now slowly, i.e. he wasn’t owned like askarov/s.knight, and earlier samsonov/sorokin/saros and others were for a while before they hit the NHL either), or kahkonen, or greiss, but DET ain’t upside.

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