After yesterday’s post breaking down my 10 most undervalued players (you can read that here), it’s time to do the ten most overvalued. I’ll be following the same format as yesterday telling you why I feel that way about each of these players. Let’s get right to it!
Carey Price – A good playoffs has people believing in Price again. I’ll value the past three seasons more than a ten game sample size in the bubble. Price was solid two seasons ago, but he was below average last season and was dreadful in 2017-18. I do like Montreal this season, but it’s not because of Price. He’s the #9 goalie on FantasyPros, which is simply far too high. I’m comfortable with Price as my #2 if I wait, but you’re asking for disaster if he’s your #1 goalie this season.
Ilya Samsonov – The hype has reached a level I didn’t expect. Samsonov was decent last season with a .913 sv% in his 26 games, but that’s nothing to write home about. Here’s why I’m worried about him. One, he hasn’t been a work horse before. Given how poor the backup goalie is likely to be, I’m afraid he could get pushed too hard. Two, the division is absolutely brutal. They traded out Carolina and Columbus for Boston and Buffalo. Boston is basically the better version of Carolina and Buffalo should score more goals this year than Columbus would. Three, I’m a bit worried about the Capitals in general. Their core took a step back last season to the point where I don’t think they’re a playoff lock. He’s ranked as a top 7 goalie by the Yahoo staff and Pianowski, and #11 overall on FantasyPros. I can see the path to success because teams under Laviolette have historically started off extremely well in his first season there, but Samsonov would be a very risky #1 goalie.
Keith Yandle – At this point, Yandle’s best asset is that he plays every game every season. Last year, he was still the face of AAGNOF (for those new, this means “Assist’s ain’t got no face!” He’s going to give you assists and that’s it.) The shot rate fell below two per game for the first time in over ten years, the PIM dried up, and more importantly, the minutes took a big hit. Quenneville clearly didn’t trust Yandle, who is now 34, as much as Boughner did. Additionally, I’m concerned with Yandle’s specialty, his power play prowess, in two ways. One, he’s not even skating on the first unit right now. That could easily change, but there’s a chance he’s on PP2. Two, and more importantly, the Panthers power play takes a big hit with the departure of Hoffman and Dadonov, especially Hoffman. Everything is trending in the wrong direction for Yandle to the point where I don’t want to own him. He’ll be long gone before it gets to a point where I’d draft him. I think there’s even an outside chance that he becomes a drop during this season.
Ivan Provorov – I didn’t expect to have Provorov here as I do like him, but he’s ranked as a top 15 defensemen on Yahoo and top 20 on FantasyPros. That’s simply too rich for my blood. He’s solid across the board, but that’s a guy I want as my #3, not as my #2. There’s also some downside if Gostisbehere or Gustafsson end up taking the spot on the top power play unit. As good as Provorov is, I think they’re both better options on the power play. If that happens, Provorov will still be a hold, but a bottom end one. He’s a little short on both upside and floor for my liking as a top 20 guy.
Seth Jones – I’ve said my piece on Jones too many times to count so I’ll make it quick. He’s a good but not elite defenseman who received PP1 time his two big seasons and won’t get it anymore barring a Werenski injury. The floor is high, but there’s very little upside. Drafting him as your second defenseman would be a big mistake.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – He has the name recognition, but OEL hasn’t been valuable in four straight seasons. He’s a plus-minus black hole, the shot rate continues to drop, and his power play points have really dropped. With a natural replacement in Chychrun, I’m not convinced he even keeps the top spot for the full season. I wouldn’t even draft him.
Johnny Gaudreau – Like Price, Gaudreau is seemingly on my list every season. At first glance, you see that I have Gaudreau at 50th overall and consensus is 38th. Not that big of a gap, but worth noting. However, he’s here for a big reason. He’s ranked 45th on Yahoo, a site that uses hits in their standard categories. You know how many hits Gaudreau had last season? One! Yes, one the entire season! A lot of the readers use hits as a default, and if that’s the case, please stay away from Gaudreau. He shouldn’t even sniff the top 100 in that format.
Aleksander Barkov – I feel bad even having Barkov on this list with how good he is in real hockey, but this is fantasy. He’s ranked 23rd overall when I have him 43rd. Like I mentioned above with Yandle, I’m concerned about the Panthers power play. A drop off there could put Barkov around 45-50 points in the shortened season, which is fine, but not second round worthy. The shots are good but not great, and the PIM are non-existent. The hits are poor as well for those of you in hits league. It’s the same case I made about Gaudreau in the past when ranked this high. You’re drafting Barkov for his ceiling this high, and the odds are he falls short.
Alexander Radulov – I was surprised to see Radulov ranked as high as he was. He’s 34 years old, his minutes took a big drop last season, Seguin is out until at least April, and his shot rate fell off a cliff. Otherwise, everything’s fine! In all seriousness, he would be a late round pick for me now. I’m not a big fan of Dallas offensively, and even less so of the Kiviranta-Pavelski-Radulov line. If you have hope, it’s that he becomes more of a focal point on the power play with Seguin down, but I’m not buying a bounce back.
Phil Kessel – Everything went in the wrong direction for Kessel in his first season in Arizona. He was absolutely dreadful at even strength, and no surprise, his PPP fell off drastically not being on Pittsburgh. He will get 24 games against the California teams, but I’m not sure it matters at all. The Coyotes are going to struggle significantly on offense and I simply don’t want to draft Kessel at all, even with a very late pick.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back on Monday with some bold predictions for next season. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!