If you didn't see Part One, check it out here. Let's get right into Part Two.
Tier Eight: Elite Upside But Medium Floor
I've never seen an organization do more to sabotage their own team and coach as the Canucks have over the last six weeks. They've been openly interviewing coaches for two months while Boudreau was still employed. It was already reported that Rick Tocchet was going to take over the Canucks before the Canucks played on Saturday night. It was highly emotional for the fans, players, and coaches, as Zach Hyman had a goal and three assists with five shots to lead Edmonton to a 4-2 win over the Canucks in Boudreau's last game. He was 50-40-13 in his Vancouver, a 90 point pace per 82 games, much better than it should be with their roster. Boudreau is one of the best coaches of the last 20 years, and I hope he gets another chance. Fantasy wise, Tocchet steps in and well, he was really bad when he coached the Lightning and Coyotes. His only playoff appearance was in the bubble because of an expanded playoffs. The schedule does lighten up quite a bit for the Canucks in the short term, which obviously helps. The distraction of the entire situation being gone also helps, but at the same time, they're going to trade Horvat sooner than later, and this could end up a slight negative for the value of their players. If anything, I lean neutral to their values, but I really don't like the way things are trending in Vancouver. Shame on Aquilini and Rutherford for handling this situation as poorly as possible. As for the Oilers, they're on fire finally starting to solidify their playoff positioning being carried by their superstars. The big thing I would say is never panic about their lines, Hyman and RNH will score plenty regardless, and will end up taking extra shifts with McDavid and Draisaitl anyways. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
If you asked most NHL fans outside of Manitoba who the best Connor in the NHL is, there wouldn’t be many differing opinions. As I said in this space before, a certain Oiler is on pace for some pretty eye-popping numbers this season.
But what if I said there’s a skater that is almost as skilled as Mr. McDavid, and has been so ‘under the radar’ this season that even our friends at DraftKings haven’t boosted his salary yet? Yep. I’m talking about Kyle ‘The Other' Connor. Kyle Connor (DK: $8,000) has been as productive a winger as any in the NHL this season, but has consistently been priced around $1,000 lower than his elite peers. Connor has 55 PTS in 46 GP and is second on his team in goals scored (23) to only Mark Scheifele. He has missed the scoresheet just once in the Jets’ last 12 games. Now, I will admit that he won’t chip in many blocked shots, but that’s not what we’re looking for here. If you can 'catch' this Connor, you're getting an elite winger at a less than elite price.
It's remarkable that Boston started off the season 19-0-3 at home, securing a point in all 22 games. That streak ended on Thursday with the red hot Kraken in town. Earning their 7th straight win, Seattle won 3-0, with Martin Jones posting a 27 save shutout. The numbers for Jones aren't great, a 2.68 GAA that is decent and a .898 sv% which is quite the negative. However, in spite of those numbers, Jones has won 20 games, having started 27. When only Ullmark and Hellebuyck have more wins than you, that's quite the value boost. That is an incredible win rate, and why he has to be held everywhere. It's probably only #3 worthy, although you can make a case he's a #2 and certainly has #2 upside. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Not a bad way for Kevin Fiala to follow up a hat trick. In a new rivalry developing between the Kings and Oilers, Fiala scored two goals and two assists with four shots. That brings Fiala to 10 points in his last five games with his shot rate jumping up quite a bit lately. The new line shuffle seems to be working, and the new Los Angeles All-Star has been fantastic in his first year with the Kings. It's a fantastic stat line across the board that has Fiala comfortably as a top 50 player with upside from there. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
As good as the Jets have been, Friday was a huge boost for their team. Not only did they get Wheeler, Schmidt and Perfetti back, Nikolaj Ehlers returned for his first game since the second game of the season. He immediately went onto a line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle Connor, and it worked out as well as it has in the past. In the 4-2 win over the Lightning, Dubois scored two goals with four shots and four PIM, with Connor having a goal and an assist plus four PIM of his own. Sunday was even better with Connor scoring a hat trick, Dubois dishing four assists, and Ehlers scoring a goal and two assists. This line has the potential to be one of the best in hockey yet again, and with Dubois playing the best hockey of his career right now, it can be even better than last season. All of them are easily top 50 players with Connor in the top 20, and the other two with the potential to push towards that, but probably a step behind that. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Kevin Fiala's first two games for the Kings left a lot to be desired. He didn't generate much in terms of chances, he took a stupid penalty in their opener against Vegas, and his ice time suffered as a result. His old team, the Wild, were coming off giving up seven goals against the Rangers and were big favorites to get their first win of the season. Instead, the Wild gave up seven goals again, with the Los Angeles top line leading the way. Fiala scored a goal and two assists with six shots in the 7-6 win, while Anze Kopitar dished three assists and Adrian Kempe scored two goals and an assist with three shots and four PIM. My biggest takeaway from this trio in the early going is that I was too low on Kempe this season. While he's not the focal point of the power play anymore, he's still vital to its success, and the addition of Fiala strengthened the top line. All of them are easy holds at the moment and I don't expect that to change. Let's take a look at what else happened on Friday and Saturday:
We're one day from the start of the season with the Predators and Sharks facing off in Europe. It's time for my annual post with 10 bold predictions for this year. Among the correct predictions I made last season were Sam Reinhart scoring 30+ goals and being over a point per game and Cale Makar having 85+ points, being the first to do so in 28 years. Well, technically Josi got to 85 before Makar, but I'm still counting it! We won't talk about me predicting the Devils to make the playoffs... let's get to this year's 10!
Today, I move into the forwards section of my rankings. I'm going to go through the top 40 forwards overall, 18 of which were covered in my Top 10 and 20 posts (linked below). My plan for the rest of the week is to plow through 80 forwards before compiling a top 200 list to be out Friday for everyone's drafts over the next week. I'm sure this will be a long one so let's get to it!
David Perron had a horrible start to the season and was shaping up to being one of the biggest fantasy busts of this year. To say things have turned for the better is an understatement. Perron scored two goals on seven shots against the Predators before scoring a goal on seven shots against Winnipeg. Since Perron went back on the top line, Perron has exploded. He has eight goals and five assists in the last ten games with 35 SOG. It's good enough across the board that Perron is a clear hold in all formats again. He's only available in about 25% of leagues, but even in a shallow league, I wouldn't be cutting Perron to keep a stream spot. The schedule is a little light the next couple weeks, but it really picks up in the last week of March and early April. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The Winnipeg first line did all of the scoring for the Jets over the weekend, totaling six goals between Friday and Sunday. Nikolaj Ehlers contributed to all six goals, dishing two assists on Friday while scoring a goal and three assists on Sunday. With nine shots between the two games, Ehlers is over four shots per game and inching closer to a point per game again. Not bad considering he has the worst shooting percentage he's had since his rookie season. Loyal Razzballers know how much I like Ehlers. There could be additional upside with Maurice gone because for whatever reason, he refused to use Ehlers on the first power play unit. Hopefully that changes because he clearly deserves to be there and we could see new career highs as an effect. Obviously Ehlers should be owned in all formats. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend, a light slate of games due to all of the postponements. As noted on Friday, I won't be listing every player that goes on the COVID list or every postponement because it's changing rapidly, but I'll note where it's making an impact on lines, PP units, etc.
In Ilya Sorokin's first two starts, he allowed ten goals. In the next seven, he's allowed eight total. Sorokin kept up his hot streak with a 24 save shutout against the Jets on Saturday. Semyon Varlamov is back for the Islanders, but for now, Sorokin is getting all of the volume. I had him pegged as a great platoon guy this year who ideally was your #3, but would be fine as a #2. Now, it would be terrific if Sorokin is your #2 because he could easily end up being a top 10 goalie even without much volume. The GAA and save percentage look to be elite while the wins on a per-game basis should be as well. Long term, Sorokin looks like a top five goalie. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
