I hope that everyone enjoyed their long weekend as much as I got to enjoy the Bills demolishing the 49ers on Sunday night! The Sabres and having to dig out my car, not as much fun. Anyways, I'm going to take a look at one player on each team around the league whose value has changed for the better or worse in the short term. I'll give you their current value and what I'm expecting from them in the near and short term. Let's get to it!
An injury on opening night took Macklin Celebrini out of the lineup for a while, but otherwise, his entrance in the NHL has gone swimmingly. Celebrini scored two goals and an assist with four shots, two PIM, two hits, and two blocks in over 20 minutes of ice time in the 7-2 Sharks win over the Kings on Monday. Celebrini has six goals and four assists in twelve games this season, and surprisingly, he's taking over three shots per game. I was not expecting this type of shot rate out of the gate for Celebrini, which is a game changer for his fantasy value. The plus-minus has the potential to be ugly, but you can make a good case for holding Celebrini in all formats now. Here's to hoping he can maintain this level of play over a long season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Vincent Trocheck was off to an awful start this season with only four points in his first ten games with no positive signs. Well, Chytil went down injured, and that set Trocheck off on a resurgence. Trocheck had a goal and two assists with two shots in the 4-1 win over the Wild. That give Trocheck six points in his last three games, but more importantly, the playing time has skyrocketed. He played only 16:46 on Thursday because the game was in hand, but before that, Trocheck had topped 20 minutes in four of the last five games. Now, it hasn't been perfect. The shot rate is down quite a bit, and it hasn't changed that much with more playing time. I lean towards holding him again in all formats, but if you include SOG, Trocheck is on the very bottom end of holds towards the fringe. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Even for Nikita Kucherov, the start to this season is on another level. Kucherov scored two goals and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Maple Leafs, and then followed it up with a goal and an assist with six shots against the Canadiens. That brings Kucherov to 10+12 in 13 games, including 11 in the last three games. He also has 5+ shots in the last five games, and seven of the last nine. This game pushes him past Pettersson for the league lead in points. The top guys on Tampa look so much better, and I can't help but think that being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs helped them for this season. So many long playoff runs for the Lightning that a real offseason had to do them wonders. We can't expect this level, but Kucherov looks poised to give his 128 points from his Hart Trophy season a run for his money. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Nobody was expecting much from the Ducks this season, but they're currently on a five game winning streak to get them to a 6-4 record. On Wednesday, their best player (for now) carried them, as Troy Terry scored a hat trick and an assist with six shots in the 4-3 OT win. That brings Terry to 5+4 in ten games, averaging exactly three shots per game. Terry is one of those guys who is always close to the fringe one way or the other. Right now, I have him as a bottom end hold, but I don't expect that to hold for the rest of the season. However, unlike the past few seasons, the talent around him is at such a higher level that he has more upside than usual. While it probably won't last, you can see the core coming together for the Ducks, and it's only a matter of time until they become a force again. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fourth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume three. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the first edition of JOT This Down!
For those who do not know me, my name is Julian Tarevski (Jules) and I am a fantasy sports content contributor from London, Ontario. (I may be an Ontarian but please do not assume I am a Maple Leafs fan.) I will be here every week with a newsletter, think of it like a message to start your Monday and help you prepare for your weekly matchup. I will cover notable line changes, guys who jumped up on the top powerplay unit, category fillers to watch, and sleepers to stream with favorable schedules.
Another star player has made his way to the Eastern Conference well ahead of the trade deadline. We already had Horvat and Tarasenko move, and now we have a former Conn Smythe winner. Ryan O'Reilly was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, along with Noel Acciari, for a bevy of draft picks. The Wild also acquired a pick for retaining salary, and there were prospects involved, but none of them are particularly relevant. For fantasy, we care about RoR and Acciari. Let's start with Acciari because it's easier. Acciari moved right onto Toronto's fourth line. He scored a goal against the Blackhawks on Sunday, and is piling up hits. He'll be a deep league value for his hits and decent goal rate. O'Reilly is an interesting debate. He's easily having the worst offensive season in the last decade. On the other hand, RoR has been playing much better lately, and he went right onto the second line with Tavares and Marner. He dished an assist in his debut on Saturday playing just over 16 minutes in the 5-1 blowout against Montreal. He also won 12 of 14 draws, which is notable that he bumped Tavares from the faceoff circle most of the time. I'm not rushing to pick up RoR, mostly because we know that he's not cracking Toronto's first power play unit. That said, there's upside in Toronto that he couldn't touch in St. Louis again. If you want to stream him on Tuesday against the Sabres and see where it goes, I can get behind that.
It was great to see Aleksander Barkov back in the lineup on Thursday, and if you didn't get him back into your lineup off injured reserve, well, that one is going to hurt for a while. Barkov scored a hat trick in the first period against the Canadiens and added two assists in the 7-2 win over the Canadiens. It hasn't been Barkov's best season to this point, but I'm buying Barkov going forward to get back to being well over a point per game. Florida has dug itself quite a hole in the playoff race and I expect Maurice to really ride their top six even more. Barkov's shooting percentage is also much lower than his career sh% (10.3 vs 14.0) so look for some positive regression in the New Year for the Panthers captain. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It feels like it's been forever since I've written daily notes. I guess being stuck inside due to a blizzard will do that. It was great to be able to watch the NHL on Tuesday night with a massive slate of games. He didn't have the biggest game of the day, but Erik Gustafsson can be a huge difference maker that impacts the vast majority of fantasy leagues. Gustafsson scored a goal and added a power play assist in the 4-0 win over the Rangers. This is notable because John Carlson is out "long term" after taking a puck to the face last Friday against Winnipeg. It seems like an eternity ago, but Gustafsson did have 60 points with Chicago four years ago with 18 coming on the PP. It's his top unit to run now, and the minutes have been decent even before Carlson's injury. The blocks are okay and the hits are below average, so in those formats he's still on the fringe, but without them, I think he's a no brainer hold. He's available in over 90% of leagues right now, so open another tab, put a claim in for Gustafsson, and then come back and see what else happened on Tuesday night!
The new goalie for the Bruins is the one that's been in for the last decade. Tuukka Rask made his season debut on Thursday, saving 25 of 27 shots in the 3-2 win over the Flyers. Somehow Rask is available in over 65% of leagues still, so if you're in one of them, grab him immediately. He didn't receive a ton of volume even in his prime, but I'd expect him to get 50-60% of the starts going forward which is definitely worth holding. Linus Ullmark should receive the rest of the starts. That's still enough for me to hold him as they should be quality starts now that Boston has turned the corner. Jeremy Swayman was sent to the AHL since he doesn't have to clear waivers, so he can be cut in all formats. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
My love for Alex Ovechkin is no secret for the readers who frequent these parts. The best goal scorer of all time continues to torment the opposition as he's in the midst of one of the best starts of his career. Ovechkin had a goal and two assists with six shots against the Sabres on Monday. Through twelve games, Ovechkin has a ridiculous 11+10 with 60 shots on goals. That's five shots per game, which he's had that or more in seven straight games. The Great Eight is playing his best hockey at even strength in years at age 36. Don't take Alex Ovechkin for granted! Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
