For today’s post, I’m going to do something a bit different from what I’ve done in the past. Yes, we don’t want to overreact to only 10 days worth of games. That is something I have preached on here for a decade now, as being stubborn and sticking to your priors is generally the best course of action. That said, we do have some more information now than we did ten days ago, and we don’t want to completely ignore that. Today, I’m going to highlight some skaters (it’s too early for goalies) that are off to amazing starts, and others that have started terribly. Am I buying the hot start, or looking to sell them? Am I worried about the struggling start for a player, or betting on them turning it around? Let’s find out!
Pavel Dorofeyev – Dorofeyev has six goals in the early going, tying him for the league lead. It’s worth disclaiming in the Dorofeyev section that we know his shooting percentage is obviously going to regress. The question with these players is whether or not their situation is conducive to maintaining success. The answer for me with Dorofeyev is a resounding yes. There are two reasons for that, but both boil down to the arrival of Marner. One, Marner is playing on his wing now instead of with Eichel. That gives Dorofeyev the chance to play with him and Hertl instead of third liners. Arguably the more important factor is the Vegas power play. They’re currently going with no defensemen on the power play (more on that later) which is greatly benefiting Dorofeyev. He has four PPG and an PPA already being one of the main triggermen on the unit. I was a bit skeptical going into the season because of the horrible assist rate last season, but Dorofeyev has a real chance at 40 goals now. He’s a clear hold everywhere and I have no questions about the sustainability.
Shayne Gostisbehere – Ghost Bear has been the #2 defenseman behind Makar so far with a whopping seven points in four games. I liked him as a PP specialist going into the season as your #3, but he’s obviously blown that out of the water. It must be said that he’s doing this without Slavin in the lineup, who will be out for a while, but it’s not too serious. Miller is also playing well, which should eventually knock Gostisbehere back down to the third pair. His shot rate is still poor as well despite the pile of assists. While I do think he can get back to the 50 point mark, I can’t see the 56 from two seasons ago in Detroit. If you have him, you don’t have to sell him at all costs, but if you got an offer where you can sell high, I would.
Leo Carlsson – The former #2 pick is really coming into his own so far with six points in four games. He’s getting almost 20 minutes per game and has found some good chemistry with Kreider. The very encouraging thing to me is 13 shots in the first four games. Carlsson averaged around 1.5 per game last season, so a big step forward is the next step he needs to take to elevate his fantasy game. He’s owned in about 35% of fantasy leagues right now and I think he should be owned in all formats. It looks like the year three jump is happening.
Shane Pinto – Pinto is tied with Dorofeyev with six goals, and at first glance, there’s reason to be skeptical. Pinto is on the third line right now and on the second power play unit. However, the minutes surely aren’t that of a third line, as he’s averaging almost 19 minutes per game. He also saw more power play time against the Sabres on Wednesday than Stutzle or Sanderson, which goes to show you that Ottawa is banking on Pinto heavily at the moment. He was buzzing throughout that game so while I acknowledge he could be a hot schmotato, there’s no denying his offensive talent. Pinto is available in over 1/3rd of leagues and I would look to use him in the short term, although for the rest of the season, I do prefer taking the chance on Carlsson.
Zeev Buium – Buium has a quick five points in four games, all of which came on the power play. That alone is reason to hold Buium, who I highlighted as a great high upside pick later in drafts. Yes, he is -6, but the Wild goalies have an .800% sv% with him on the ice so far and the Wild are shooting 0%. There’s one other reason that I’m buying here. Spurgeon and Brodin aren’t exactly pictures of good health. As Buium settles into the league (don’t forget he’s only 19), his minutes have a great chance to increase. I saw him as more of a #3 in 12’ers this year, but I think there’s a chance he’s a #2 already.
Matthew Schaefer – Despite having a point in all four games, I’d look to sell Schaefer in redrafts (obviously hold in dynasties). The main reason here is player usage. Yes, he does have two games with over 26 minutes, but both came when the Islanders were getting blown out. In the two games that the Isles were competitive in, he played only 17 minutes. Roy isn’t going to overwhelm Schaefer with a big workload, especially with all of the veteran defensemen on their roster. I certinaly wouldn’t be cutting Schaefer, but with his name value, I’d try to sell high.
Brandon Hagel – And now we move to the guys with differing levels of bad starts. He has only one point in four games and doesn’t have the top power play spot. The good news is that in an attempt to get Hagel going, Cooper has him slated to play with Point and Kucherov on Friday. Sign me up for that. The odds of Hagel repeating last season were slim, but the hopes of coming very close were banking on a PP1 spot. That could change any minute, but I’m not banking on that happening. I’d say my panic meter is around a 6/10, in that I see him more as a top 75 player that should push to the top 50 instead of the top 20 where I had him, let alone as a top 5 forward like last season.
Jackson LaCombe – Despite the Anaheim offense getting off to a pretty good start, LaCombe is sitting on zero points. That said, he is getting insane minutes, playing at least 25 minutes in every game until Thursday, when Carolina took it to the Ducks. Anaheim’s second line and second unit are looking very good, which is leaving the PP time being split, which is a knock on LaCombe and the top guys. At the end of the day, this one comes down to priors. If you were bullish on LaCombe like I was, I see no reason to panic. There’s no threat to him on PP1 and I’m not throwing out last season’s underlying numbers after four games. If you weren’t a fan, then there’s not enough here for me to say you’re wrong.
Shea Theodore – This one is simple to me. I love Theodore as a player and his minutes are very good right now. That is despite being off the top power play unit because of Vegas going five forwards. I have to knock Theodore down simply for the lack of that opportunity. If you can sell high, I would, but I wouldn’t want to sell low. Stone is rarely healthy and Theodore could immediately slide back on if the unit goes cold or anyone goes down. That Theodore has only one assist so far is simply bad luck.
Andrei Svechnikov – Buzz, your girlfriend, woof. Svech has zero points in four games. He only played 13 minutes in each of the last two games. This is full blown panic time. I had Svechnikov just outside of the top 100 overall, which is close to where he was ranked most places. Now, I wouldn’t even be holding him in 12’ers. The problem was that it wasn’t particularly good last season either. I was extremely bullish on Svech a few years ago, but now, hard pass.
Brock Faber – Speaking of hard passes, I was questioned about Faber in the preseason because I had him outside of the top 200. I had no interest, and Buium’s early success only solidified that. Faber isn’t even on the second unit at this point. Best case scenario, Faber has a Slavin-esque type of fantasy season. That means if you’re lucky, you’re looking at 35-40 points. I have absolutely no interest in Faber. He’s the perfect example of valuable player in real life with very little fantasy value.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back on Monday recapping the action from the weekend. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
