We know that Jack Hughes has dominated the first three weeks of the season, but his older brother has started off extremely well, while his teammate and younger brother is starting to get going as well. Let's start with Quinn Hughes. On Friday, Hughes scored two goals on four shots, adding two PIM. Against the Rangers, he had three shots on goal, which sounds disappointing, but it illustrates a large change in Quinn's game. The one thing that has been holding Quinn back for years in terms of fantasy value is his shot rate. This was his sixth straight game with 3+ shots, and 7th in eight total games. It signifies a huge chance in his game, one that does fantasy owners wonders. He has eight points in eight games and certainly can come close to repeating last season's 76 points in 78 games, if not topping it. He was always an elite #2 with flaws, but now, he's a #1. Sure, the hits are dreadful, but everything else is magical.
It was quite the low scoring day on Thursday, with eight of the eleven games going under their betting total, two of which needed overtime to do so, plus there was a miracle in Boston (more on that later). There were four shutouts on the night, all of which were quite surprising. I'll go in chronological order. The Avalanche were undefeated on the season, so naturally Tristan Jarry shut them out, making 31 saves. Jarry now has two shutouts, two dreadful starts, and one mediocre start. He's one of the highest variance goalies around. I'm lower on him than most, but I acknowledge that he could be a bottom end #1. Next, Jonas Johansson had his second consecutive shutout, making 23 saves against the Sharks. He's clearly must own for now, although like Jarry, the downside is undeniable. Joel Hofer shutout the Flames, making 27 saves. I was high on him because I don't believe in Binnington. Both have been off to a hot start, but I'm skeptical of the Blues being good defensively. I'm bullish in Hofer for dynasties, but in redrafts, he's a selective streamer with upside. Lastly, Jonathan Quick shut out the Oilers, making 29 saves. He made a couple spectacular saves, but color me skeptical. I think this says more about the Oilers without McJesus than anything. Quick is a reasonable streamer in plus matchups for now, but know that it could blow up in your face. Let's see what else happened on Wednesday and Thursday night:
I was extremely bullish on Tyler Toffoli's fit with the Devils, even though he wasn't a lock to be on PP1. "Before last season, Toffoli had never topped 31 goals or 29 assists, so expecting a repeat for a guy entering his 11th season in the league seems farfetched. That said, it’s hard to pick a better spot to be in than New Jersey right now for even strength play. People were worried about Toffoli’s power play role to open, but it looks like the Devils are starting with the two balanced unit approach. Personally, I hate it, but it’s a big boost to the value of the guy who normally would be on PP2, which Toffoli looked to be. I’m all the way in." And that's me quoting me in my bold predictions saying Toffoli averages at least a point per game. He was off to a solid start, but he had his first big game on Tuesday. Toffoli scored a hat trick on six shots in a revenge game against the Canadiens. That brings Toffoli to 4+2 in five games with 4.5 shots per game. There's a real chance that he ends up as a top 50 player. Let's take a look at what else happened in the Monday game and the Frozen Frenzy.
Steve Yzerman can't ask for a better start from his big offseason swing. After his first game without a point as a Red Wing, Alex DeBrincat followed it up with a hat trick and an assist with five shots in Sunday's win over the Flames. That brings DeBrincat to a whopping eight goals and four assists in his first six games with Detroit. He's clicked with Dylan Larkin (two goals and three assists over two games) to give Detroit an elite first line. We've seen DeBrincat score 41 goals twice before playing with Kane, so it's not like this is completely out of nowhere. While this shooting percentage won't last, given how much Detroit is rolling the first line, I'm expecting career highs across the board for DeBrincat. There's a real chance Detroit plays its way into the playoff picture this season if the first line can win its matchups on a regular basis. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
As a change of pace from the usual daily notes, I want to highlight ten different things that have stood out to me in the early going, whether it's good, bad, or something we need to monitor going forward. I'm going to get my first hold/stream list out in the next week or two, but I want some things to take shape more than they currently are. Let's get right to it!
On its face, Evan Rodrigues having an assist with four shots and two PIM in the 4-3 win over the Devils doesn't stand out as anything special. However, it was another data point that the Panthers are going to heavily depend on Rodrigues. He's remained on the first line and first power play unit which alone puts you on the fringe. While I think he's a poor offensive finisher, Rodrigues loves to take horrible shots which is a big value in fantasy. Rodrigues is available in over 80% of leagues, but I've seen enough for him to be a hold in all formats. It could dry up when Bennett returns, but based on where Rodrigues is playing on the PP, I don't see Bennett taking that spot. There's a chance Rodrigues is the best fantasy player who went undrafted in most leagues, so get him now. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
You guys know I like to start my posts about players who could be available in a large percentage of leagues that you can target on the waiver wire. After all, being aggressive at the bottom of your roster is a huge factor in fantasy hockey. However, sometimes a player has a weekend so good that you have to give him his due. This time, that player is Auston Matthews. Matthews scored three goals on Saturday, recording his second hat trick in as many games. Look, everybody knows the upside. We're talking about a guy who scored 60 goals two seasons ago on his way to the Hart trophy. He's obviously in that tier right behind McDavid, and the only reason I had him towards the bottom of the tier is that he tends to miss 10-15 games a season. If Matthews can play 75+ games, a repeat of 60 goals is well within reason. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The hockey season is underway with nine total games in the books so far. In this post, I will cover those games quickly at the end highlighting some notables, and will have the same for Friday despite a shortened Thursday schedule. Monday morning will have my first big set of daily notes from the weekend. This post will open with 10 Bold Predictions for the season. These are all meant to be bold; I'd be glad to hit on three of them. Last season, we had some awful whiffs (thanks Cole Sillinger) but also hit on Dahlin being a top 5 defenseman and predicting massive failure for Chicago and Philly from a fantasy (and real) perspective. Let's get to it!
If you didn't see Part One, check it out here. Let's get right into Part Two. Tier Eight: Elite Upside But Medium Floor
Obviously you guys know that I've gone out of order with my rankings, but I had to get my Top 200 out there for everybody's drafts. If you've missed it, you can see those rankings here. Today, I'm going to show you the method behind the madness of my forward rankings. Part one will be out today, part two will be out tomorrow. I'm going to try and get a bold predictions post out on Monday as well, and then the season will be underway. As a heads up, I am going to be in London from Thursday until Tuesday. I will probably only get to the site once per day, but I will be sure to answer everybody's questions on all posts when I get the chance. Thanks for your understanding. And with that, the first half of my forward rankings.
I know I'm going out of order, but I want to get my Top 200 out so people have it for drafts over the next week. I will circle back to in-depth forward rankings on Wednesday, going through that before having another post or two before the season starts. This post will simply be a rankings list with no details. You will see how they're separated into tiers in the upcoming forward posts (you already have the tiers for the other two positions). Feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. And without further adieu...
We’re keeping it moving with part two of my defensemen rankings today. If you didn’t read Part One, check it out here. Also, if you didn’t see Jules’ rankings, the newest Razzball writer, you can check those out here. Please, blog, may I have some more?