It's one of my favorite posts of the year! Sure, a lot of trades have been done in advance of the deadline, but there's sure to be more action today. Starting around noon eastern, I'll be updating this post with instant analysis on every trade that takes place. All of the moves from Wednesday and Thursday are below as well, with all previous moves in other posts.
Surprisingly, we're having the most action ahead of the trade deadline that I can ever remember. There were a lot of trades over thee last two days that I'll be sure to cover below, but I have to start off with a four goal game. Anze Kopitar scored four goals in the 6-5 OT win over the Jets. I'm shocked that this was actually Kopitar's second four goal game of his career. Kopitar has a good chance for 30 goals now for the first time in six years. Kopitar has played his way into being a hold in all formats as he's closing in on a point per game. With the Kings in the thick of a playoff race, he should continue to get 20+ minutes a night. Kopitar has shown very few signs of slowing down in his age 35 season. He's one of the best players of his generation and doesn't get all of the credit that he deserves. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
With so many major trades happening over the weekend, I feel like the only choice was to write about them tonight. I'll have some quick hits about what happened on the ice over the weekend at the end, but this post is going to be focused on trades. The #1 player on the market, Timo Meier, was traded to the Devils on Sunday night, uniting him with his Swiss teammates Hischier and Siegenthaler. In totality, the trade looks like this:
New Jersey Devils acquire forwards Timo Meier and Timur Ibragimov, defensemen Scott Harrington and Santeri Hatakka, goalie Zachary Emond, and a 5th-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for forwards Fabian Zetterlund and Andreas Johnsson, defensemen Shakir Mukhamadullin and Nikita Okhotiuk, and a conditional 1st-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, a conditional 2nd-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and a 7th-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.
The rich keep getting richer. The Boston Bruins acquired Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway from the Capitals on Thursday, sending draft picks and Craig Smith to Washington, and a pick to the Wild for retaining salary. I think this trade is far more interesting from the Washington perspective. They couldn't agree to a contract with Orlov, with the dispute being over the term of his next deal. Until a few days ago, it seemed farfetched that they would weaken their team for this season, but I actually think it's a smart move. Even if they snuck into the playoffs, they weren't going anywhere. They gained some additional ammo that they can flip in the offseason to make a push again next season. They have a lot of additional pending UFA's that could be on the way out, so it's hard to figure out who will be there in a week to benefit from this move. My guess is Trevor van Riemsdyk takes Orlov's spot on PP2, but he's also a UFA making 950k so he's a logical target for a lot of teams at that price, so he could be on the move too. Smith should crack the lineup, but I'm not expecting much at all. He's off the radar until we see him play. As for Boston, Orlov won't be getting PP time there with Lindholm holding down PP2, so he takes a slight hit to his value. The Bruins are so good that Orlov should stumble into enough points to be valuable in deeper leagues, but we're talking 14+ teams. Hathaway should do what he usually does, and that is pile up a bunch of hits and PIM with an okay goal rate for a fourth liner. All in all, this trade impacts real life more than fantasy. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We had a game of the year performance on Monday night by Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck saved 50 of 51 shots in the 4-1 win over the Rangers, ending their winning streak. One of my best rankings this season over ADP was banking on Hellebuyck to bounce back after last season's disaster. I even said in my bold prediction that he'd win the Vezina, which Ullmark will probably ruin, but his season has certainly been Vezina worthy. But enough of patting myself on the back. Hellebuyck is sitting with a 2.39/.926, putting him in a battle with Oettinger for the #2 overall goalie to this point (the gap to #4 is massive). He's as good of a bet as any to finish the best goalie for the rest of the season considering the top end volume. Bottom line, Hellebuyck is entering his prime now and since he gets to play in a Bowness system, he should stay in tier one for the indefinite future. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Another star player has made his way to the Eastern Conference well ahead of the trade deadline. We already had Horvat and Tarasenko move, and now we have a former Conn Smythe winner. Ryan O'Reilly was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, along with Noel Acciari, for a bevy of draft picks. The Wild also acquired a pick for retaining salary, and there were prospects involved, but none of them are particularly relevant. For fantasy, we care about RoR and Acciari. Let's start with Acciari because it's easier. Acciari moved right onto Toronto's fourth line. He scored a goal against the Blackhawks on Sunday, and is piling up hits. He'll be a deep league value for his hits and decent goal rate. O'Reilly is an interesting debate. He's easily having the worst offensive season in the last decade. On the other hand, RoR has been playing much better lately, and he went right onto the second line with Tavares and Marner. He dished an assist in his debut on Saturday playing just over 16 minutes in the 5-1 blowout against Montreal. He also won 12 of 14 draws, which is notable that he bumped Tavares from the faceoff circle most of the time. I'm not rushing to pick up RoR, mostly because we know that he's not cracking Toronto's first power play unit. That said, there's upside in Toronto that he couldn't touch in St. Louis again. If you want to stream him on Tuesday against the Sabres and see where it goes, I can get behind that.
Carolina's offense has been a bit disappointing overall, with only Aho sitting around a point per game. The injury to Patches really put a hole in their lineup that I assume they're going to address before the trade deadline. On the bright side, their most recent high draft pick just had the game of his early career. Seth Jarvis scored a hat trick in the 6-2 win over Montreal on Thursday. Overall, Jarvis has taken a step back offensively this season which is disappointing. His points are down despite playing 2 minutes more per game on average. It's dropped him down to being a middling streamer, but it hasn't really changed my long term opinion of him. He has great speed, solid hands, and an elite compete level. Jarvis just turned 21 years old so the best is yet to come. If you owned him in a dynasty, I wouldn't panic. He's going to be a top six winger for a long time. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Ottawa had much higher hopes this season than sitting barely above .500. They are playing better hockey lately, going 7-3 in their last ten, following two straight wins to open the week. Ottawa had a massive comeback on Monday, scoring twice in the last 2:14 before winning in overtime against Calgary, 4-3. They found a great performance from a goalie making his NHL to earn a 3-2 SO win over the Islanders on Tuesday. Offensively, they were carried by Tim Stutzle. Stutzle had a goal and three assists with three shots and two PIM on Monday and then a goal and an assist with three shots and two PIM, plus the shootout winner, against the Islanders. The minutes are massive right and he's rewarding D.J. Smith by playing at a 40-50 pace. Amazing stuff from someone who just turned 21 years old. The shot rate has been trending in the right direction for months so while he's a clear top 50 guy now, the debate is how high he should be ranked in dynasties? He's not in that top tier, but he's probably in the tier right behind it. Stutzle's offensive upside has true superstar value. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
While the NFL steals the spotlight during Championship Week, the Rangers started the weekend blowing out two top teams in Seattle and Carolina. They scored six goals in both games to bring their winning streak up to five. While it was a group effort on Friday, Artemi Panarin stole the show on Saturday. The Breadman scored four goals and an assist with five shots and two PIM against Carolina, after dishing an assist against the Kraken. Gallant shuffled the lines after Tarasenko's arrival, with Vincent Trocheck and Jimmy Vesey playing with Panarin again, setting up two of his goals. It was Panarin's third three-point game in his last eight, as he starts to heat up. While he hasn't approached his point production of his first three seasons in New York, Panarin is still on pace for 90+ points. That shows what kind of floor he has and why he's worthy of an early draft pick every year. Despite lower shots and PIM/hits, even his below average year (by his standards) is a top 50 player. Who knows, Panarin could finish the season on a massive heater and finally get to 100 points. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Another big domino fell in the trade market on Thursday with Vladimir Tarasenko joining the Russian contingent in Manhattan. The Rangers also received Niko Mikkola, while giving up Sammy Blais, Hunter Skinner, a first round pick in 2023, and a conditional fourth round pick in 2024 that will almost certainly turn into a third (the Rangers need to make the playoffs for that to happen). The first round pick that the Blues get will be the lesser of the New York and Dallas first round picks. I'm a big fan of this move for the Rangers. A late round first for a quality rental is a solid price, they get to dump Blais in the deal, Skinner isn't much of a prospect, and they get some blueline depth with Mikkola. Tarasenko gets a boost in this trade, and potentially a big one. He'll almost certainly go on the opposite wing of Panarin, and if Zibanejad stays at center with Panarin, that's a great spot to be in. The big question is whether Tarasenko goes on the vaunted first power play unit in Trocheck's place. It's a different position than he's used to playing on the power play, but Trocheck isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Trocheck would be a big loser if Tarasenko does take that spot. We should get an answer on that tonight. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Matthew Tkachuk entered the All-Star break on a massive hot streak. He continued it at the All-Star Game, winning MVP honors. Needless to say, it was continued on Monday night against their rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tkachuk had two goals and three assists with six shots in the 7-1 win over Tampa, going +5 in the process. Tkachuk has managed to blow last season's 42+62 out of the water to this point. He's the #3 forward overall on the season and has the most balanced stat line of everyone in the entire league. Marchand was a top five forward for years because of his all-around contribution. Now, that spot is Tkachuk's. He's every bit of a top five player now and going forward. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
With the All-Star Break coming to a close and the schedule ready to pick up for the home stretch, it's time for an update to my hold/stream list. The one thing that I want to add is that for head to head leagues, I would be far more aggressive in cutting players that are missing time if you're in a battle for a playoff spot, and if you are locked into the top of your standings, I would be more focused on setting up my team for once the playoffs begin. In roto, it all depends where you are in terms of your starts. Let's get to it!
