It’s time! Today’s post will cover my current Top 20 players overall for the upcoming season. For those that are new to Razzball, my rankings consider goals, assists, special teams points, and shots on goal first and foremost. I put secondary value into plus-minus and PIM/hits as their values shift depending on league format. It’s easier to stream players in these categories, especially PIM/hits, so I put priority into scorers, and especially shot volume as it is the best predictor for goals. Let’s get to it!
Tier 1: Jesus On Skates
1) Connor McDavid
If you’re lucky enough to get the first pick, don’t overthink it. He just had the best fantasy hockey season of my lifetime, and all of it looks sustainable.
Tier 2: Annual Hart Contenders
2) Nathan MacKinnon
3) Leon Draisaitl
4) Auston Matthews
5) Matthew Tkachuk
I feel really confident about Tkachuk being #5, but you can argue about the order of 2-4. My real debate was on 3 vs 4, as MacKinnon’s leap last season puts him as my #2 without much hesitation. He had 111 points in 71 games, over five shots per game, dominated at both even strength and the power play, plus isn’t a blank in PIM. If you want to knock him for anything, it’s that he usually misses some time due to injury, but I’ll take the best shot volume in the league with nightly dominance.
Draisaitl vs. Matthews comes down mostly to personal preference. Their goals should be similar, as should the plus-minus and PIM. The shot volume for Matthews is significantly better, but Draisaitl is clearly better in assists and STP (the Oilers will continue to be power play merchants, I have no doubt). The injury history goes in Leon’s favor as well, so that’s why I went there.
Tkachuk has stepped into the spot Marchand used to hold in my rankings for hitting all of the categories. Tkachuk does it even better because the shot rate is elite. Nobody hits every category as well as M. Tkachuk does.
Tier Three: Tier Two Upside, Lower Floor
6) Mikko Rantanen
7) David Pastrnak
8) Jason Robertson
9) Nikita Kucherov
10) Jack Hughes
11) Kirill Kaprizov
The first five guys on this list all had 100 points last season, while Kaprizov did the year before. All of these guys are capable of top five fantasy seasons (Rantanen and Pastrnak did last season), but they don’t have the floor that tier two does. That said, all should be first round picks in fantasy drafts. Rantanen went 55+50 last season with elite contributions across the board. He’s incredibly safe, but I don’t quite buy last season repeating. He had a career high shot rate with a career high shooting percentage, which isn’t really sustainable. His PIM and hits took a big jump up as well. It’s really hard to say if that’s repeatable. I would expect the PIM to drop a bit and probably the hits as well. That said, this is total nitpicking as we’re talking about my #6 player.
Pasta was the #3 overall skater last season (4th in per-game behind McDavid, MacKinnon, and M. Tkachuk), scoring 61 and pushing five shots per game. I have no doubt that the shot rate will remain amongst the league’s best. The problem is that he loses Bergeron and Krejci as center depth. As good of a year that Zacha had last season, jumping up to facing top line competition is another world. The plus-minus will surely drop, but Boston should still be an elite play-driving team with the blue line they have. If you’re more worried about Boston than me, you can drop Pastrnak a few spots lower, but I still expect him pushing 50 goals with all of the other goodies.
Robertson took a huge jump last season, both at even strength and on the power play. Add in a massive shot rate jump and it didn’t matter his shooting percentage fell to a normal level. Honestly, I have no concerns whatsoever about Robertson. I don’t even know what argument you can make against him… maybe Pavelski ages quickly and it hurts that line? I’m skeptical of that. I don’t see more upside from last season, but there doesn’t have to be any for Robertson to clearly be worth a pick in the back half of the first round.
It doesn’t feel right ranking Kucherov 9th overall. He was second in the league in assists, had 50 PPP, and he was quite unlucky in his shooting percentage in comparison to his career norms. However, it was the second straight season that Kucherov was only around break even at even strength. Even with some positive shooting regression, Kucherov is going to be behind everyone else in this tier in goals and shots. If you think Kucherov is going to repeat last season but with better shooting luck, you can slide him closer to the top of this tier. There’s enough worrying things for me to keep him here.
The Hughes case is very simple. He jumped into superstardom last season, putting over four shots on goal per game and getting 99 points. His points should continue to rise this season with Meier and Toffoli in place for the full season, plus natural growth from Hughes being 22 years old. That said, he is a total zero at PIM and hits. Most leagues include one of these categories, if not both, and it’s a big drain on his overall volume. I still think he’s worth a first round pick because I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushed 115+ points, but it caps his total value.
Another year where the Wild can’t get Kaprizov a top center to play with. Kaprizov’s assists dropped a ton last season, but it was mostly bad luck. Team shooting percentage at even strength with Kaprizov on the ice in his first 3 seasons: 11.8%, 13.4%, 9.0%. Needless to say that the assists will fix itself if that gets back to normal. The shot rate jumped up towards four per game last season, the power play was better, and he’s become feistier on the ice, raising his PIM and hits. I had a tough time deciding whether Kaprizov should be in this tier or lead off the next tier, but ultimately, his 108 point season two years ago plus the underlying improvements last season keeps him in tier three.
Tier Four: Clear Second Round Picks, Maybe More?
12) Brady Tkachuk
13) Tage Thompson
14) Elias Pettersson
15) Sidney Crosby
16) Cale Makar
17) Tim Stutzle
18) Rasmus Dahlin
These players have a wide variety of skill sets, but all are clear second round picks in my mind. If you’re in a banger league with hits and PIM, Tkachuk needs to be much higher. He took a big step offensively, getting up to a point per game. That doesn’t touch the other forwards in this tier, but add in over four shots per game and elite PIM, and it’s easy to see why Tkachuk is ranked this high. The one issue is that Tkachuk has been a minus player every season, but I can see that changing this season with the emergence of Stutzle, so I’m not worried about it.
I wanted to homer it up and put TAGE even higher, but I couldn’t quite get there. Still, Thompson went 47+47 pushing 300 SOG. He played 18:35 per game, which could potentially increase slightly. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tage had a slight down tick in points as so many Sabres had career years last season, but the team is so young on the whole that it could be sustainable. If Tage went 50-50, would you be surprised? I certainly wouldn’t.
My love for Pettersson’s game was rewarded last season as he broke 100 points. The shot rate took a massive jump forward, and I do think there’s room to grow on the power play. The floor has reached an incredibly high point for Pettersson, and there’s a world where he goes 50+60 with three shots per game. He gets a boost in hits leagues compared to PIM leagues, so adjust accordingly depending on league settings.
Crosby is as consistent they come. He came in as the #18 skater last season. I bumped him up a few spots because Karlsson’s arrival should revitalize the stagnant Penguins power play. The PIM and hits were a bit higher than usual, so I expect both to drop back down, but not nearly enough to impact Crosby’s value. Neither should Guentzel missing the beginning of the season.
Makar was an absolute monster last season. If not for an injury, he’d have seen an absurd stat line. He was over a point per game with elite shots and PPP for a defenseman. Add in that he’s always great at even strength so his plus-minus is excellent, and Makar is a true fantasy superstar. His ceiling offensively can’t be touched by any other defensemen in this league. We could see Makar have the first 30 goal season by a defenseman since Mike Green, and the 4th defenseman ever with a 30 goal, 100 point season.
Stutzle took the massive third year breakout, posting 90 points in 78 games at 21 years old. The main question is whether there is more room to grow. While I’m torn on the points, I do think the shot rate can go up enough to put him into this range. From year 2 to 3, Stutzle gained 52 shots on goal despite playing one less game. If there’s a similar leap, he could end up Pettersson with more penalty minutes. It’s a little riskier, but his floor is a top 30 player, and he could eventually be a top 10 guy.
Dahlin was the #1 overall defensemen last season for almost the entire season. He dominated at even strength for the first time in his career and crushed it on the power play. Pretty good combo, if I do say so myself. Dahlin’s shot rate continues to increase and the PIM are through the roof. It’s crazy that he’s still 23 years old. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes another step forward to go over a point per game. His ability to hit all of the categories and certainty with his role separates him from the rest of the defensemen in the league besides Makar.
Tier Five: 100 Point Possibilities With One Weakness
19) Brayden Point
20) Mitch Marner
This tier goes past these two guys, but I’ll focus on them for today. Point is coming off the regular season of his career, scoring 51 goals and adding 44 assists. On one hand, Point’s shooting percentage screams regression, and he doesn’t get many penalty minutes. On the other hand, Tampa had a longer offseason for the first time since before COVID. I’m expecting their team to be in better health than in the past. They also lost Killorn and Colton this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Point and the other top Lightning players’ minutes go up.
Once I get to the forwards after this, you’ll see the difficulty in ranking this tier. There’s not much that separates Point from say, Connor or Barkov. I ended up settling on Marner here for a couple reasons. One, his floor is incredibly high. He’s been well over a point per game for over five straight seasons. Two, the Leafs power play is excellent. Three, Marner has excelled at even strength for years. Four, there is no four, I’m copying what Grey does! Five, and the main reason I settled on Marner here, is I think the drop in shot rate could be a one year thing. He has a long history of being around three shots per game, so I don’t think 2.5 per game will be his new norm. Even if it is, you can’t go wrong with getting 90+ points.
That’s all for now guys. I will get my goaltending tiers out on Monday. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
