The rankings kick off with my Top 20 overall players. My rankings put a priority on goals, assists, shots on goal, and special teams points (almost all on PPP, but a small boost to those that PK). I assume that most leagues have PIM and/or hits, but I try not to overweigh those categories. Yes, they are equal to the other categories, but they are easier to target in drafts and extremely easy to stream, so we should be focused on the scoring categories. Of course, they won’t be ignored, or I would be giving you a horrible set of rankings where guys like Brady Tkachuk are far too low. If you have any specific questions, let me know in the comments section below. And with that, let’s get started!
Just kidding… to repeat myself from Wednesday’s post… I wanted to ask if anyone was looking to contribute as a writer this season. Good help is hard to come by, and unfortunately. JKJ is unable to contribute this season. I’m extremely flexible in terms of what you write about and the schedule that you want to be on, so if you have some interest, please let me know in the comments section and then I’ll reach out to you privately. And with that, here we go!
1) Nathan MacKinnon – This tier includes MacKinnon and McDavid. The decision between the two isn’t going to make or break your team, and it’s a true 50/50 decision for me. Even with a drop in shot rate last season, MacKinnon still is miles ahead of McDavid’s shot rate, and we’ve seen MacKinnon push towards five shots per game before. While McDavid is likely to have more PPP, MacKinnon has been a monster there for the last few seasons as well. MacKinnon is also likely to play about a minute more per game, and when we see this players as equals, that’s enough of a small boost to nudge things his way. If you’re lucky enough to pick in the top two, I’m fine with going with your personal preference. For me, that’s MacKinnon.
2) Connor McDavid – The goals are also generally lower for McDavid than MacKinnon, but we’ve also seen McDavid score 153 points before. Kucherov is the only one who has sniffed that total recently. Look, you don’t need me to spend time talking about the best player on the planet. Can’t you see him taking the league by storm in his contract year and putting up 150 points on his way to a fourth Hart Trophy? I certainly can. My realistic expectation is around 40+90 while being a plus across the board.
3) Leon Draisaitl – I would have Draisaitl and Kucherov in their own tier, with Matthews a clear #5 overall, but you can make the case the three of them are together for the upside Matthews possesses. Draisaitl has scored 52+ goals in three of the last four seasons, including last season’s 52 in 71 games. The 11 games missed were a career high, so generally, his health is a plus. His shot rate went back up into elite status, he maintained incredible power play work, and even strength domination continued. It’s been seven straight years with 100+ points if you prorate the shortened COVID season, so Draisaitl is an easy #3 for me.
4) Nikita Kucherov – Maybe it’s a bit unfair for Kucherov to be #4, considering that he was the best overall forward last season (it would be MacKinnon, but Kucherov’s overall value was higher because he played seven more games). The shot rate is excellent, he’s a good bet for 50 PPP, and an assist per game seems like a formality at this point. I only prefer Draisaitl because early on, I have a preference towards goals, and Kucherov is more likely to be around 40 goals while Draisaitl is around 55. If you wanted to take Kucherov third, I have no problem with it.
5) Auston Matthews – Two things will determine Matthews’ value at the end of the season. The main one is how many games will he miss? Does he stay healthy like 2023-24, does he miss about 10 games, or is it 15-20? The risk keeps him clearly below the top four. However, he does have 60+ goals in two of the last four seasons, and he was well over pace to beat that in the COVID shortened year. The other question is how much does losing Marner hurt him? For all of the negative talk around Marner, he has played at a 100+ point pace for five straight years, mostly playing with Matthews. Matthews’ shooting percentage has greatly changed season to season, and losing Marner probably won’t help him get as many tap-ins. Maybe it gives Matthews a bounce back in shot rate, but there’s enough questions here that it really makes me want to have a top four pick this year.
6) David Pastrnak – Pastrnak is as safe as they come, finishing as the #7 overall forward last season despite a dreadful start to the year. He hasn’t missed a game for the last three seasons, the shot rate is always amongst the league’s elite, and he’s close to a lock for 40+ goals. The downsides are that his quality of teammate is easily the worst on this list, no matter who he plays with. That causes a problem on the power play, where he’s a way’s off the rest of the guys in this range. I’m still comfortable ranking him 6th because of the floor, but you will have to get some elite PP guys in the upcoming rounds to make up for being 10-30 PPP behind the guys ahead and behind him.
7) Kirill Kaprizov – The noise around Kaprizov and his contract year is a lot to deal with, but damn, he was good last year. The injury took away half of his season, but prorated, Kaprizov played at a 50+62 pace with a 3.5 shots per game rate. It’s a very similar line to Pasta in that the PPP wasn’t there last season, but it has been in the past. Could him refusing a contract that would make him the highest paid player in the league derail the Wild? Potentially, but I don’t think so. He’s a lock for 40+ goals per 82 games with elite shots and very likely great assists. I could see dropping Kaprizov a few spots if the vibes are bad during preseason, but The Thrill is in his prime and has an upside higher than anyone below him with the potential exception of J. Hughes.
8) Cale Makar – It’s very rare for a defenseman to finish as a top 5 overall skater in a season. I’d have to go back and look, but my guess is that in my decade of doing this, Makar’s 2024-25 is the first one that I covered. Sure, the hits are down and the PIM have never been there, but Makar is a lock for incredible PPP, over three shots per game, crushing even strength, and being over a point per game. Sure, the 30 goals might go down, but 25-30 is a very reasonable range. Add in the 60-70 assists and I find myself slotting Makar here. Part of it is that the forwards right after this all have some risk to them, or at least don’t have the offensive ceiling in one case to force Makar down. Makar is as safe as they come these days.
9) Jack Hughes – The more I go through this, the more I really hate picking in the back half of the first round this season. There’s so much more uncertainty than we are used to. With Hughes, it’s simple: how many games is he going to play? The last two seasons, he’s missed 20 games in each of them. If he stays healthy, a 45+60 season with one of the best shot rates in the league is totally in play. Hell, it could get even better than that given that he’s still only 24 years old. If you want certainty with your first pick, then you should probably take someone else, but if somebody is going to break into the current top 5 overall for next season, my money would be on Hughes.
10) Mikko Rantanen – This one is really tough for me. On one hand, if you asked me five months ago, I’d have had Rantanen closer to 20th overall than 10th. The shot rate was low in Dallas and he was below a point per game, albeit barely. Then, he absolutely tore Colorado and Winnipeg apart in the playoffs, finishing with 22 points in 18 games after the Oilers series. Yes, the minutes are going to be down in Dallas in comparison to where they were in Colorado. That said, we’re talking about a guy who was 6th overall and closer to being higher up than lower, so he had some room to give to settle at 10th overall. Additionally, his regular season was derailed by the trade to Carolina and the subsequent trade to Dallas. Now that he knows where home is, I think we see him back in the 95 point range with 3+ shots per game while dominating at even strength.
11) Brady Tkachuk – I’m really torn on where to put Tkachuk. On one hand, he could lead the league in shots on goal. He’s been between 9.8 and 10.4% shooting the last four seasons, so he’s a virtual lock for 30+ goals, but what if he actually has good luck in a season? I’m not talking 15+% because he takes a lot of terrible shots, but even 12% would give him a chance for 40 goals. The hits and PIM are truly elite to go with his shots. However, his career high is 83 points, far behind almost everyone on this list that isn’t a defenseman. I’m fine with putting Tkachuk because he allows you to take guys later that are relatively empty points because he smashes all of the secondary categories. I get passing this high because of the lack of points, but I can also see him a borderline top 5 pick in banger leagues.
12) Jack Eichel – Eichel had arguably his best regular season in his career, posting a career high 94 points. That mostly came in the form of assists, totaling 66 assists in 77 games, with a huge bump on the power play. I don’t love that the shot rate went down quite a bit, which caused a drop in goals. The reason I’m bullish on Eichel is the arrival of Marner. His playmaking ability should get Eichel’s shot rate back up and the goals will rise with it. The hits and PIM are poor which does hurt a bit, but his first 100 point season is firmly in play.
13) Quinn Hughes – Hughes proved that his Norris winning trophy wasn’t a fluke, maintaining his large bump in goals and shots from his previous seasons. If healthy, he’s a lock for 60+ assists with 70+ assists more likely than not. Like Eichel, the hits are non-existent, and the PIM are mediocre. That’s not enough for me to keep Hughes down. If he stays healthy, Hughes’ floor is around the 5th best defensemen now. Because I don’t see much of a gap between the forwards in this range below, I have four defensemen in my top 20 for the first time ever, and I still lean Hughes as the #2.
14) Artemi Panarin – Panarin’s last three seasons in terms of shots: 204, 303, and 237 last season. That’s massive volatility. It was also the worst PPP production he’s had on the Rangers. Still, Panarin had 37+52 in 80 games and it was still three shots per game. His points floor is so high that I still have him in this range, but there’s enough uncertainty in the secondary categories that it knocks him out of first round pick contention.
15) Rasmus Dahlin – I was tempted to bump Dahlin up ahead of Hughes. Dahlin crushed across the board on his way to 68 points (17+51) in 73 games with almost three shots per game. He had great PIM and solid hits, with a +11 rating, a big step forward for him. You can look at it a few different ways with Dahlin. One, he’s a clear cut top five defenseman in the league now in real life. He’s somehow only 25 years old still, about to enter his prime. The PPP are decent, but the Sabres are overdue for a better power play and luck, despite their overall incompetence. The analytics models are quite bullish on the Sabres this season compared to expectations, but a lot of that is defensively. If the Sabres aren’t running and gunning, maybe it hurts them overall. My argument would be that Dahlin is so good that they will dominate his minutes and no matter what style they play, he’s going to produce. Consider me all in.
16) William Nylander – Nylander set a new career high with 45 goals, giving him 40+ in three straight seasons. The shot rate dropped significantly, but he’s still over three per game. My guess is that his minutes get a slight uptick as well with Marner’s departure and not as much top end talent on the team. A big reason I have Nylander this high is that he’s played every game in the last three seasons, and only missed one four seasons ago. He’s incredibly safe in the second round of drafts.
17) Kyle Connor – Based on last season, this is too low for Connor. He keeps going back and forth between being around a point per game, and going into the 95 point range. Either way, Connor is a good bet for 40 goals and well over three shots per game. Outside of an injury two seasons ago, he has stayed remarkably healthy throughout his entire career. I do think we see a small drop from last season, but the floor is so high that he slides in here.
18) Mitch Marner – I’m very interested to see what it looks like for Marner in Vegas. As far as the regular season goes, he’s been dominant throughout his career, and now he goes to a different regular season powerhouse. He should finish around 100 points which has to get him into the top 20 overall. There’s a lot of questions with his shot rate that keeps him down here. Last season, he had only 173 shots in 81 games. That’s a fairly big negative for a forward, and kept him to 27 goals with some good shooting luck. He used to be around three per game, and if it goes back to that level, Marner could be a top 10 player. Perhaps without Matthews shooting so much, we see an uptick, but Eichel is also a gunner. I would rather have Marner ranked higher than this than lower, so he’ll be a popular target for me in this range.
19) Zach Werenski – Last season was a meteoric rise for Werenski from a very good defenseman to a superstar. Werenski finished with 23+59 and well over 3.5 shots per game, easily the best in the league for a defenseman and top ten for the entire league. Is that repeatable? It’s hard to say, but I buy Columbus’ offensive resurgence on the whole, and Werenski is the driving force of that playing 26+ minutes per game. There’s only one other defenseman in this ranking area, with a fairly big dropoff after my #5D, which is why Werenski still gets into my Top 20.
20) Matvei Michkov – Alright, time to plant a flag. First off, I need to say that you will never have to take Michkov this high. His ADP is around 73rd overall right now, and the highest he is ranked anywhere is 46th overall. Ranking Michkov this high is me saying that I want him on every team this year. There are so many things going in his favor that I think come this time next year, he’ll be ranked in the Top 20 everywhere and will be Top 10 sooner than later. On the surface, a 26+37 rookie season in 80 games is nothing to sneeze at. Neither is 2.5 shots per game for a rookie, especially on a team coached by Torts. However, if you look at his splits, Michkov had 12+18 in his final 29 games, and almost exactly three shots per game. The PP talent has increased around him with the arrival of Zegras, giving him an easy path to more points that way. His minutes should also increase drastically in year two, with Tocchet leaning on his top guys more than Torts, and Michkov only averaging 16:41 as a rookie. I’m not saying he’ll get to 20 minutes per game already, but even the 18-19 minute range is a big bump. He also got quite a bit of PIM for those of you who have the category. My money is on Michkov having a point per game season with an above average shot rate, but I wouldn’t even be surprised if he reached 90 points. He has full blown offensive superstar written all over him.
And with that, the Top 20 is done after almost 2800 words. As always, feel free to ask any questions, give any comments, or leave any suggestions below. I’ll be back on either Monday or Tuesday next week with my Top 40 forwards. Again, if you have any interest in writing for Razzball this year, please let me know below. Thanks for reading, take care!
