We wrap up my forward rankings by going through the Top 100 today. As a reminder, there will be a separate post once my rankings are done for my favorite late round targets in 10-12 team leagues, but this post should get us comfortably through round 15 or so when you factor in goalies and defensemen. If you haven’t seen the Top 60, you can check that out here. Let’s get to it!
61) Timo Meier
62) Andrei Svechnikov
63) Adam Fantilli
64) Quinton Byfield
65) Rickard Rakell
66) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
67) Dylan Strome
68) J.J. Peterka
69) Joel Eriksson Ek
70) Jared McCann
Meier took a step back last season, but the injuries to Hischier and Hughes hurt him. He’s still an elite source of shots, with great hits/PIM. I’m betting on him getting back towards the 35 goal mark. Svech hasn’t broken out as expected, but I think he gets back to where he was two seasons ago. I’m buying how Fantilli finished the season. 31 goals in his age 20 season is incredible, and that’s with almost no power play contributions. From February on last season, Byfield had 12+19 in 32 games. The shot rate is a concern, but I’m betting on him turning the corner. Rakell should be locked onto Crosby’s wing and the huge minutes that comes with. There’s a trade possibility, and the plus-minus could be ugly, but I don’t see why he can’t get back to 30+35.
RNH has been trending in the wrong direction, but I think we see a bounce back towards the 67 points he had two seasons ago. At the least, he should provide elite PPP. It’s going to be hard for Strome to repeat last season’s point per game, especially because he shot 19.5%. The shot rate is a clear negative too, but 70 points is well within reason. Peterka goes to Utah, and while he won’t get to play with a guy like Tage, the Utah power play is a clear upgrade. I’m betting on the shot rate going back up no matter who he plays with. We have a very good idea of what we’re getting from JEEK and McCann. The questions are whether or not JEEK can stay healthy, and what percentage McCann is going to shoot. McCann’s games played and shot rate have been consistent, but where is he going to fall into the 22-40 goal range? The career high in assists last season boosts his floor high enough to land in this range, which is probably in the 110-120 overall range.
71) Bryan Rust
72) Carter Verhaeghe
73) Mika Zibanejad
74) Steven Stamkos
75) Ivan Demidov
76) Vincent Trocheck
77) Dylan Holloway
78) Sean Monahan
79) Jonathan Marchessault
80) Gabriel Vilardi
Rust is in the same boat as Rakell, although it comes with a lower shot rate. Verhaeghe’s ranking could change once we get an update on Barkov’s health. We could see an uptick in shots and minutes from him if Barkov misses time, but it could also hurt his points a bit. I do like him to bounce back from last season. Zibanejad looked pretty cooked last season, but we’re also working from a standpoint of him formerly being a top 20 player. The Rangers seem committed to letting him play wing, which should get his shot rate back up. Similar to Zibanejad, I’m betting on Stamkos’ pedigree. Like the Preds, he’s not as bad as he was last season. I could be a year too early on Demidov, but he’s probably more offensively gifted than Michkov, and by now you guys know how much I love Michkov.
Trocheck hasn’t missed a game since going to the Rangers. He hits all of the categories fairly well, and even if he’s off PP1, he didn’t do much there anyways. Plus, I expect Sully to play PP2 more than Laviolette did. From December on last season, Holloway had 50 points in 52 games. This is far too low in hits leagues, and it could be low regardless. My only slight pessimism is that I don’t see the Blues as a juggernaut like how they finished the season. Monahan was incredible last season with 57 points in 54 games. As I talked about with Marchenko before, I do expect some regression, but I wouldn’t rule out Monahan having the second highest point total of his career. Same deal as Stamkos for Marchessault, whose shot rate should be better, but he doesn’t have the upside Stammer does. The real concern for Vilardi is health. He’s been fantastic both seasons in Winnipeg, but he’s missed 46 games in the last two seasons. The shot rate did drop off quite a bit last season, but even if that shot rate holds (and I think it goes back up), he would beat this ranking playing 65+ games.
81) Pierre-Luc Dubois
82) Drake Batherson
83) Bo Horvat
84) Will Smith
85) Tom Wilson
86) Brock Boeser
87) Cutter Gauthier
88) William Eklund
89) Alexis Lafreniere
90) Mark Stone
Dubois got his career back on track in Washington with 66 points in 82 games. His shot rate really dropped, but he stays healthy and is entering his prime at age 27. Batherson has never been great at even strength, but his power play prowess makes him a safe bet for 60+ points. Horvat dropped down to 28+29 but there’s easy room for improvement. Somehow, he managed only 7 PPP. With his three shots per game and 20 minutes per game, Horvat is a nice safe option. The opposite of safe, I’m buying Smith stock. That’s partially because of his own talent, and partially getting to play with Celebrini. Wilson won’t be as good as last season because of the unsustainable shooting percentage, but this is the range that it’s reasonable to start targeting PIM/hit specialists if your first 10ish rounds are lacking in those departments.
This might be too high on Boeser, but I like that the circus of probably leaving Vancouver is behind him. I think the power play upticks again and he’s a safe bet for 25+ goals with 35-40 goal upside. Gauthier finished the season taking a ton of shots, leading to 12 goals in his last 31 games. What’s more exciting is he only averaged 14:09 per game. That number could easily go up to the 17-18 range. Add in natural growth and a better head coach (even if he lacks morals) and Gauthier has real breakout potential. Eklund started his breakout last season with 58 points in 77 games. The power play should continue to improve, and now he has better linemates. He feels very safe in this range with upside. Lafreniere was dreadful last season, but I like that he’s getting all the PP1 looks in camp and preseason. He’s been an even strength crusher in the past, so perhaps he finally puts it together. We know what we’re getting from Stone on a per-game basis, but how many games is he going to play? That’s the only question.
91) Morgan Geekie
92) Pavel Buchnevich
93) Matt Duchene
94) Brock Nelson
95) Anze Kopitar
96) Tyler Toffoli
97) Tomas Hertl
98) Mason McTavish
99) Evander Kane
100) Matthew Tkachuk
Going into my rankings, I was assuming Geekie wouldn’t have cracked this top 100, but Boston’s depth is so poor that I don’t see how he leaves the top line or top power play. Shooting regression will happen, but Boston seems content with feeding the top line very easy minutes. The shot rate has dropped off quite a bit for Buch, btu he’s good across the board and a safe bet for 60+ points. Duchene had an incredible point per game season, but he almost shot 20%. He’s also lost Marchment on his wing. I think he ends up closer to the previous season’s 65 points. Nelson could drop down by the time I do my top 200 list, but if he’s going to PP1 over Lehkonen, Landeskog, and Olofsson, then he should be good enough to be in this range. Kopitar’s shot rate is absymal now, but he’s an extremely safe 65 points in his final season.
Toffoli scored 30 goals last season with elite shots, and now the team around him is better. Apparently I’m quite high on the Sharks offense this season. Hertl also had a high shooting percentage, but Marner’s arrival could help the PP improve to cancel out that regression. McTavish needs to sign a contract sooner than later, and it certainly doesn’t seem imminent. I’ve always been a sucker for his talent / upside so as the team around him continues to grow, McTavish should as well. This may be too high for Kane, but he’s another specialist that makes sense in this range. Absolute beast in PIM/hits and the goals / shots should be there as well. Tkachuk’s ranking here is contingent on your league having IR spots. This is somewhere around 150th overall, probably a tad later, and where I’d consider taking Tkachuk, even though he’s likely to miss a couple months to start the season.
And that wraps up my forward rankings. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. I’ll be back on Monday to either start my defensemen rankings, or my goaltending rankings. Thanks for reading, take care!
