We’re onto the last position in my rankings, the netminders. Goalies make a huge difference in fantasy hockey, but they also have the most variability from year to year. There’s only a handful of goalies that we can consistently count on every season to finish in the top ten, and that floor is why they are ranked as high as they are. Because of their unpredictability, I’m very unlikely to take a goalie in the first four rounds, especially in head to head leagues. Even if your league reaches for goalies early, don’t panic. Last season, I was extremely high on Kuemper and was able to get him as my G3 everywhere. He finished as the #3 goalie overall. I liked the Leafs platoon for roto leagues, and Stolarz finished as G4. Meanwhile, top ranked goalies such as Shesterkin and Saros disappointed, and they were far from the only ones. Patience is key for drafting goalies. I’m going to separate all of the goalies into tiers, so let’s get to it!
Tier One: Superstars
1) Connor Hellebuyck
2) Jake Oettinger
3) Andrei Vasilevskiy
4) Igor Shesterkin
Hellebuyck could be put into a tier by himself. He’s far and away the #1 goalie at this point, lapping the field in GAA and sv%, while also starting the most games in the league, giving him the most wins last season as well. Don’t overthink it. Oettinger was the #6 goalie last season, and while his underlying numbers weren’t spectacular, they were good enough with the team he has in front of him. Vasilevskiy was the #2 overall goalie last season, both in fantasy and in goals saved above average. He returned to practice today, so don’t worry about his minor injury. Vasilevskiy is in his prime, and the team around him continues to thrive. They’re division favorites now and for good reason, so I fully expect a top 5 season from Vasilevskiy. Igor could be a contested inclusion here, but I was honestly closer to ranking him 2nd than out of this tier. His numbers look bad on the surface, but he was still 7th in GSAA last season. That shows that the Rangers were at fault defensively and it wasn’t a drop off in goaltending. Now, they have a real coach in Sullivan instead of whatever Laviolette is doing these days, and the addition of Gavrikov should really help them defensively. We should be back to seeing the Vezina level Shesterkin.
Tier Two: Likely #1’s in 12’ers
5) MacKenzie Blackwood
6) Sergei Bobrovsky
7) Dustin Wolf
8) Filip Gustavsson
9 ) Darcy Kuemper
Blackwood could miss the first week or so of the season, but he could be fine for Opening Night. Either way, he had a 2.33/.913 once he was traded to Colorado, with 22 wins in 37 games. Blackwood is more talented than Georgiev, and we saw him have some monster seasons. Blackwood has always had the talent, and now that he’s settled into Colorado, I think we see his best. I’m a bit torn on Bob because his underlying numbers were mediocre (26th in GSAA) and the team will be worse defensively without Barkov. I settled on him still being here because the Panthers depth is still outstanding, he has no playing time threat, and I think we see Florida play a tighter style all the time now. You wouldn’t think this, but I believe he’s the riskiest of the bunch. Wolf finished with a 2.64/.910 last season, very respectable numbers for a rookie. I believe he’ll see a handful more starts this year (remember that he split with Vladar to open the season) and continue to improve. There’s young Saros vibes here. Gustavsson finished as the #5 goalie last season, even though his underlyings weren’t fantastic. However, the Wild are a very good defensive team, especially if Brodin and Spurgeon can stay a bit more healthy this season. Gustavsson has also been elite in GSAA in the past so the ability is there. The one concern is that if he struggles, the Wild have Wallstedt waiting in the wings. I have been all in on the Los Angeles goalie for the past few years because of my belief in their system. Kuemper was the #3 overall goalie last season, and he was closer to Hellebuyck than he was Gustavsson. That’s how good Kuemper was. I have a little concern with Ceci and Dumoulin coming in with Gavrikov and Spence going out, but I’ll bet on the system and how good their forwards are defensively.
Tier Three: Could Be A #1, Could Be A #2
10) Adin Hill
11) Jacob Markstrom
11) Ilya Sorokin
12) Logan Thompson
13) Linus Ullmark
What separates these five goalies from the tier below is their floor. While I don’t see these goalies having much chance of being a top 5 goalie this season, I don’t much chance of them tanking your season either. Hill set a career high with 50 games played last season, and finished with a whopping 32 wins, coupled with an elite 2.47 GAA. His save percentage was only .906, which keeps him down here, along with a volume cap. However, he’s been above .900 for seven straight years so he shouldn’t hurt, and Vegas committed to him as their #1 with a six year deal. He’s a solid bottom end #1. Markstrom carries some injury risk, and his volume shouldn’t be huge with Allen there to ease the burden. There is some upside here because even with a .900 sv% last year, he had a 2.50 GAA. If he can get that to .910, he might have a 2.3ish GAA which is elite. I love pairing him with Allen in roto leagues. Last season felt like a disaster for Sorokin, but he was G13 on the back of his volume (that gives him a boost in H2H). The team improving defensively seems like a stretch, so it’s hard to see Sorokin get back to top five level. That said, he’s so good that it can’t be ruled out.
Thompson is a hard case for this season. I really liked him late last year and he rewarded Razzballers with an insane 2.49/.910 and 31 wins in 42 starts. A lot of that was his level of play and not the defensive system, which is a bit scary. Washington seems likely to regress as well, and we haven’t seen Thompson play more than 46 games in a season before. He’s another guy I like more in roto. The downside is arguably highest in this tier, but there’s a fair amount of buffer that he has to fall into this range from where he was. Ullmark posted a .910 save percentage in Ottawa last season, a respectable number. It was very up and down from a month to month basis, and I’m not fully in on Ottawa continuing to improve, which is why he slots at the bottom of this tier. That .910 only turned into a 2.72 GAA last year. He finished G16 last season, and that seems about right to me, so while a handful of goalies in the next tier could finish ahead of him, Ullmark could be the best and he certainly won’t be the worst.
Tier Four: Embrace The Variance
14) Anthony Stolarz
15) Thatcher Demko
16) Juuse Saros
17) Sam Montembeault
18) Karel Vejmelka
19) Joey Daccord
20) Lukas Dostal
21) Stuart Skinner
22) Jordan Binnington
23) Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
24) Jet Greaves
You can tell me that any of these guys finished as a top ten goalie and I wouldn’t be surprsied, but they also could finish outside of the top 25. I was very tempted to put Stolarz in the tier above, but he still hasn’t played more than 34 games in a season. He was incredible last season with a 2.14/.926, but when you can’t even count on him for half the games, it’s hard for him to be your #1. In roto, he’s definitely in the tier above, but for head to head, he’s at the top of this one. Demko is another injury risk, and he wasn’t particularly good when he played last year. I’m almost throwing last season out the window for all the Canucks. We’re a year removed from Demko posting a 2.45/.918 and being second in the Vezina. If he’s your #2, I wouldn’t punt your third goalie. After years of being a fantasy stud, Saros was dreadful last season. I’m not all the way back in, but I do think that ends up an outlier. Nashville won’t be that bad again, and his volume is amongst the league’s best, so if the team bounces back, the wins should be good on volume alone. He had better than a .914 for the better part of a decade, and even if he gets back to the .906 from 23-24, that should be enough to get him as a #2 again.
I originally had Montembeault higher than this, and I do like him for this season. He just hasn’t topped a .903 in three seasons with Montreal, and they have been bad defensively. I’d say this season, I’m more bullish on their offense than their team as a whole, so while I do think the wins will be decent, I don’t think we’ll get ratios from Montembeault. The volume is solid though. The upside for Vejmelka is quite high with Utah on the rise. Even his .904 last season resulted in a 2.58 GAA. It’s not hard to envision a GAA in the 2.4 range if he gets to a .910 sv%. The problem is he hasn’t topped a .904 yet in his career, and they lost some team defense with Doan and Kesselring out, and Peterka coming in. It wouldn’t shock me if Vejmelka actually plays better this season, but his numbers are slightly worse. Daccord is a weird one in this group in that I don’t really see the upside, but he looks like a pretty safe #2. He was actually top 10 in GSAA last season, but the problem is that the Kraken aren’t very good. Playing at that level only resulted in a .906 sv%. A healthier team could make a difference, and I don’t really see Daccord falling off regardless.
I thought about putting Dostal in tier six, but Anaheim is a step ahead of the Blackhawks and Sharks in their rebuild. He was quite good in extended stretches last season, but his finishing numbers were only 3.10/.903. This is why team effects matter so much, as Vejmelka’s .904 resulted in him allowing over half a goal per game less than Dostal. Long term, I’m a huge fan, and with Gibson gone, Dostal could start 60 games. The chance that Anaheim makes the jump this year puts him here. Edmonton is much better defensively now, but Skinner’s .896 sv% dragged his GAA to 2.81. The upside is clearly there to be a top ten goalie. We know the wins will be elite regardless, and we’ve seen Skinner have a .913 playing 50 games in a season before. He’s just a massive risk. Binnington is another one where the team defense is strong, but a 2.69 GAA comes from his .900 sv%. If he can get it back to the .913 from the season before, a top ten year is well within reach. The downside is he stays around .900 and Hofer works his way into a split.
UPL is already banged up, and he was brutal last season with a 3.20/.887. That said, I’m buying into the Sabres defensive improvements. They have a legitimate top ten blue line now and they have better defensive forwards. Two seasons ago, the Sabres were committed defensively and UPL had a 2.57/.910. He comes near the bottom of this tier because he needs to bounce back and also stay healthy. Hopefully this preseason ailment doesn’t derail him. I really like getting Greaves as my G3 this year. He played out of his mind down the stretch last season, posting a 1.91/.938 in 11 games, saving 14.5 goals above expected in the process. Obviously those are unsustainable numbers, but that shows his upside. Perhaps Columbus regresses back towards the bottom of the standings, but it wouldn’t shock me if they’re close to the playoff picture again with Greaves in net. I’d bump him up but I still don’t trust Columbus to give him the reigns instead of forcing too many Elvis starts.
Tier Five: Volume Concerns / Roto Goalies
25) Pyotr Kochetkov
26) Frederik Andersen
27) Jake Allen
28) Justin Woll
29) Calvin Pickard
30) Joel Hofer
31) Kevin Lankinen
32) Alex Lyon
I still don’t really know what to do with the Carolina goalies. Both of them were bad last season, but they still piled up wins because of how good the team was. I still like taking both of them in roto leagues, but it’s likely that there will be Cayden Primeau starts because one of the two will be hurt. In past years, I was fine punting goalie in roto, then taking both Canes goalies and then another duo, or a G2. Now, I think you need one of the top guys first, then have Kochetkov and Andersen as your 2nd and 3rd goalies. Allen played 31 games last season and was decent enough with a 2.66 / .906. As mentioned above, I think we see Allen stay in this range in a ploy to keep Markstrom healthy. I do think we see a small uptick from those numbers too with a healthier Devils team.
Woll is already banged up so you can easily put him at the bottom of this tier. Over the last two seasons, Woll has a .908 in 67 games, getting 39 wins. While he’s an injury risk of his own, Stolarz is a massive one as well. If things break right and he gets half the starts, Woll has very high upside. Even with mediocre numbers, Pickard should get plenty of wins. Skinner is obviously a huge risk, so Pickard could be the beneficiary. The Blues tightened it up defensively under Binnnigton, making Hofer a solid streamer in most matchups. Binnington also has real downside risk. Demko can’t stay healthy, so the Lankinen option is obvious. My main concern here is going from Tocchet to a first time coach in Foote. That said, it’s a weak division and the Canucks should be solid defensively with a full year of M. Pettersson on the blue line. Since he saved the Panthers season and started their dynasty three seasons ago, Lyon has been solid. I don’t hold last season against him with how bad the Red Wings are defensively. The Sabres should be stronger there, and with UPL an injury risk, I expect Lyon to see 25-30 starts (Levi does loom if UPL misses long term). You can probably get Lyon with your last pick, but it could be beneficial. Worst case, you cut him early and move on.
Edit: UPL left the preseason game early on Wednesday. It sounds precautionary, but it could continue to linger. Lyon could end up starting opening night, and then who knows what happens? I like the last pick gamble even more now.
Tier Six: Feels A Year Early
32) Spencer Knight
33) Yaroslav Askarov
Maybe the Blackhawks or Sharks take off a year earlier than expected (the Sharks have a much better chance of that, in my opinion), so two goalies that I really like long term could blow up. Both teams are starting from such a low point that I’m not taking them in redrafts. I suspect we’ll see a few monster games from both of them; I fully expect them to be the winning goalie in some massive DFS GPP’s where they save 45 shots and get the win. However, in season long, the bottom is just far too low.
Tier Seven: No Thanks
34) Jeremy Swayman
35) John Gibson
36) Samuel Ersson
37) Tristan Jarry
It might be crazy to have Swayman and Gibson down here, but I just don’t want to draft them this year. That doesn’t mean I think they’re necessarily worse than the previous tier or won’t have finish with more value than guys two tiers ahead, but I want to make it clear they’re off my board. Boston made zero substantial adds this offseason, leaving them with a very rough bottom six and blue line. The second line isn’t great either, and Lindholm 1C isn’t good. Even if I expect Swayman to play better this year (I do), taking him as your G2 in 12’ers is asking for trouble. I can’t see a respectable GAA or a winning record. Gibson had his first good season since before COVID, but he only played 29 games, due to health and then Dostal being better. He’s so much of a wild card at this point and the Red Wings seem to be stagnating, leaving me not wanting any Gibson stock. Ersson has played part of three seasons, the last two as the #1 for Philly, and he hasn’t had a .900 sv%. No thanks. I’m completely out on Jarry and the Pens this year. Other guys not listed e.g. Elvis I have no interest in either.
