We’re keeping it moving with my fantasy hockey rankings today with my defensemen rankings. My plan is to do two posts of tiers, with another post at the end of guys I like as lottery tickets for your last couple picks. It’s starting to get deeper on the blue lines around the league, with the top guys carrying more value than in the past. There are a lot of guys that I’m excited to talk about, so let’s get to it!
Tier One: Cream of the Crop
1) Cale Makar
2) Rasmus Dahlin
Went over both of these guys in the Top 20 here.
Tier 2A: #1 Overall Defenseman Upside
3) Dougie Hamilton
4) Roman Josi
I’m separating these two ahead of the rest of the tier because of this tier name. Both of these guys have been the #1 overall defenseman before, and it’s in play again this season. Hamilton was right there last season, smashing every category across the board. The Devils have established themselves as a power house, so there’s no reason to expect a chance. He’s quite similar to Dahlin, except that Dahlin is on the better part of his aging curve, and he doesn’t have L. Hughes breathing down his neck. I don’t see Dougie losing his PP1 role during the season, but it’s a non-zero chance, plus the Devils play their second unit more than some other teams.
Josi was somewhat disappointing last season, due to the Nashville power play dropping off, and him missing 15 games. That said, he put on four shots per game, a massive total for a defenseman, and he wasn’t far off point per game. I am bullish on the power play bouncing back a bit with Brunette at the helm, plus some young, talented players. Josi’s floor is extremely high, as is his ceiling, which slots him here.
Tier 2B: Clear #1 Fantasy Defensemen
5) Adam Fox
6) Miro Heiskanen
7) Brent Burns
8) Erik Karlsson
9) Quinn Hughes
10) Evan Bouchard
Fox, Heiskanen, and Hughes can all be lumped together, as they’re very similar in fantasy. They’re going to have 10-15 goals, a pile of assists, and elite on the power play. They’re all good at even strength, so their plus-minus should be solid to strong. The PIM and hits are weak, and their shot rate is average to below average for defensemen. All in all, they’re all extremely good, but they don’t have the ceiling the top 4 guys have (and some others in this tier) because the shots aren’t quite good enough. They’re perfectly fine as your #1, you just have to adjust accordingly with your lower end defensemen.
Burns put up similar numbers to Dougie when he had the #1 role in Carolina. Burns finished as the #7 defenseman last season (he’s ahead of two of those guys in my rankings) and can easily repeat. He’s excellent across the board, and Carolina should be a wagon in the regular season. The only concern is that he’s 38 years old, so while I don’t expect the shot rate to drop, it’s possible they’re even lower quality than they already are, dropping the goals a touch. Additionally, TDA is back in Carolina, which does give them more PP options. I’m still a believer in Burns though.
I have a hard time with Karlsson. He was unbelievable last season with 101 points and now he goes to a much better team. There are some concerns though. One, he is a trainwreck defensively so I don’t expect the plus-minus / even strength results to drastically change. Two, he’s been very injury prone the last five years before last. Three, the Sharks were going out of their way to get him points last season. I don’t expect that with the Pens being in playoff contention. Don’t forget that you were getting Karlsson basically for free last season. The upside is undeniable, and the floor is enough to put him in this tier, but it’s riskier than everyone else here. Even…
If there’s going to be skepticism over a player in this tier, it’s definitely Bouchard. I was extremely bullish before last season, and it couldn’t have started out any worse. However, once the trade deadline came and Barrie was moved out, Bouchard was fantastic. In the last two months of the season, Bouchard had 5+14 in 21 games, a +12 rating, and close to two shots per game. In the playoffs, he had 17 points in 12 games with 2.5 shots per game. Everyone knows how deadly the Oilers power play is, and I think it functioned better with Bouchard than Barrie because of how good Bouchard’s shot is. I would not be surprised with a 15+55 season, and I think there’s a chance it’s even better than that.
Tier 3: Like, Not Love
11) Mikhail Sergachev
12) Josh Morrissey
13) John Carlson
14) Charlie McAvoy
15) Victor Hedman
16) Vince Dunn
17) Shea Theodore
All of these guys should be #2’s, maybe even bottom end #1’s, but they aren’t without flaws. Sergachev and Hedman are on the same thing (thanks, Captain Obvious) and there’s only one power play spot between them. For most of last season, that was Sergachev’s, and he delivered with a top ten fantasy defenseman season. The problem is that he’s been consistently under two shots per game, so there’s little room for growth after getting 64 points. His ten goals from last season is pretty close to his ceiling as well. It’s solid all-around, but nothing earth shattering. Hedman gets the bump down because of the lack of PP1 time. I’m sure he’ll still get some time there, but his days of pushing for the #1 overall defenseman are over. I still expect Hedman to be above average across the board, enough so to be a #2, justifying his ranking.
Last season was such a massive outlier for Morrissey and Dunn that it’s hard to judge them for this season. Let’s start with Morrissey. He had played around a 40 point pace for a few years, only to get 76 out of nowhere. Now, a large chunk of that came on the power play. I do think that’s sustainable as long as the team keeps Scheifele to go with Connor, Ehlers and presumably Vilardi on the first unit. However, I can’t buy the 16 goals and the even strength production seems certain to come down. He’s good enough in all the peripheral categories that I think he remains in this range.
Loyal Razzballers know that I’m long been a fan of Dunn, but even I couldn’t see a 64 point season coming. He absolutely dominated at even strength with Larsson, and put up a ton of PIM. The one chance for Dunn to get back to 60 points is with more PP time. The Kraken evenly distributed their PP time last season, so there’s a chance they lean more towards the top unit. The other problem is that Dunn, like Sergachev, has a below average shot rate. I have Sergachev higher in the tier because I feel much better having a piece of the Tampa top PP unit than Seattle’s.
After missing little time over a full decade, Carlson missed half of last season. The points were down quite a bit, although he was over three shots per game. While I’m skeptical of Washington making a huge bounce back, I do think Carlson and the top Capitals can do so. There’s too long of a history of elite play that I’m giving him the better of the doubt for this season. I would understand if you dropped him down a tier, although I can’t see more than that.
The McAvoy case is really simple. He’s elite in every category except shots, where he is truly dreadful. It looked like he was on the right track in 21/22 when he was over two per game, but he was under 1.5 last season. Maybe he takes more again, specifically on the PP, with Bergeron gone, but I need to see it. Regardless, McAvoy is so good at everything else that he’s basically locked into being a #2 fantasy defenseman.
I want to have Theodore higher, as I usually do. He had 41 points in 55 games, while being good at even strength and with a decent shot rate. The problem is that Cassidy keeps Pietrangelo on the first power play unit despite being a clearly worse PPQB. Who am I to judge the team who won the Cup, but their top unit is statistically miles better with Theodore out there. If Theodore was guaranteed first unit time, I would have him in the tier above. As is, it caps his ceiling enough to keep him down here.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll have my next set of defensemen rankings out on either Thursday or Friday. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
