Hello everyone. Welcome to the tenth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the second edition of JOT This Down!
It was so nice to have hockey back on the screens after so long without it. The NHL is in a really good place in terms of the level of talent in the league right now. In almost every game, you will see a jaw-dropping play or an unbelievable stat line, sometimes from someone you would have never expected it from. Take Brock Boeser for example (add him if he is somehow available), nobody could have predicted that on opening night, but you never know what will happen in the NHL. That’s why in a sport with a lot of luck and volatility, never get too upset if things don’t go your way. It’s a long season, and there’s always next week to bounce back. Treat it as a hobby and have some fun.
In a Pacific Division battle on Thursday, Stuart Skinner stole the show. Against the Kings, Skinner saved all 43 shots he faced in the 2-0 win. We all know about the firepower the Oilers possess, but they made the conference finals last season in large part because of Mike Smith getting hot as he was known to do. The Oilers replaced him with Campbell, but that has been an epic disaster. Skinner has established himself as the clear #1 and will be going into the playoffs. His numbers are that of a #2 in fantasy, and while I do like the 24 year old long term, I don't really see upside past that unless the Oilers completely revamp their defense. That said, for the Oilers to get on a run, they'll need solid goaltending, and Skinner has shown that he's capable of that. He's the goalie of the future and more importantly, the present. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
This year couldn't be going any worse for the Columbus Blue Jackets. A horrible record, terrible injuries to key players, and dreadful goaltending have sunk them from the beginning. Now that they're in the Bedard race, their fans probably aren't even happy that they won on Tuesday night. Their prize free agent signing, Johnny Gaudreau, dominated the game with two goals and three assists, plus six shots on goal. That brings him up to 62 points in 64 games, a far cry from last season, but not a complete disaster. The question isn't about what to expect from Gaudreau for the rest of this season, but going forward. He turns 30 in the summer, but I'm not expecting drop off in the short term. Can he approach 100 points again? I have my doubts, but if Columbus is lucky enough to get Bedard, it can't be ruled out. Bedard would be the perfect compliment, and Fantilli wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. I was lower on Gaudreau than consensus so I don't have any of him this year, but there's always a chance that with his talent, he makes a huge difference over the last month. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Apologies to all of you DFS faithful for the absence last week! Mrs. MarmosDad had an unfortunate mishap at work and ended up at the hospital, so your fearless “penner of puckmovers” ended up much busier than expected. But, fret not! I’m back again today to get us all set up to cash in some Classic NHL lineups on a much fuller main slate than we’ve had for a few weeks. (And if you're worried, I'm glad to report that the Mrs. still has 9 1/2 fingers in tact).
With a shout out to the Beastie Boys and their best album (although this is like picking the best chocolate bar, they're all pretty awesome), Check Your Head, we’re going with Vitek Vanecek, G (DK: $8,400) on the road as our lede today. Vanecek heads to Montreal with the Devils for this one and brings a 27-7-3 record with him. The 2.55 GAA and .907 SV% are pretty impressive on the surface, but some might be quick to point out that Vanecek is just 4-2 in his last 6 games, with one of those losses at home against these same Habs. He’s put up a 3.67 GAA over that last half a dozen, but with the Devils reinforcements at the deadline and the Habs mired in a 5 game losing skid, I think it’s a safe bet to play him on the road tonight.
The Senators have been a disappointment this season despite their big forward acquisitions in the summer. Turns out that you can't get away with completely ignoring the blue line and being forced to give bad players big minutes. Anyways, we don't care about that for fantasy, we care about their scoring, and their top players have largely delivered. Claude Giroux had a great weekend, totaling three goals and two assists with ten shots over two games. Giroux is having his best goal scoring season since his monstrous 34 goal, 102 point season in 2017-18. Unsurprisingly, that season and this season are Giroux's two highest shooting percentages, but it seems a bit more sustainable in this environment in Ottawa. Even with an inconsistent PP1 role, Giroux has still played his way into being a bottom end hold in all formats. The one problem is that after Ottawa's game on Tuesday, they don't play again until February 11th. My biggest point here with bottom end holds over these bye weeks is that you need to know your league format and whether the waiver wire is strong enough that you can drop someone like Giroux to get more games. In head to head leagues, volume is king, so you can make a case after Tuesday that you can let him go for players with a bunch of games after the All-Star break. In roto, I would hold onto Giroux without hesitation. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We've reached the final week of the season with every team having 2-3 games left. Hopefully you're all still in contention in your leagues so these games matter to you. In this post, I'm going to take a look at each day to see how you can plan accordingly to maximize starts and stream the best players possible. Let's get to it!
I've been aggressive ranking Matthew Tkachuk for years, but I never expected this type of offense from him. Tkachuk had a hat trick on Tuesday, bringing his season totals up to 37+55 in 73 games. He has a chance for 100 points, he's +49, the PIM are strong, and his shot rate is over three per game. Tkachuk is pretty much having a Marchand-esque season. That's the Marchand who has been a top five player for the past 4-5 years. Now, I'm not quite going there with Tkachuk for next season. Gaudreau could leave and this is an outlier in terms of past performance. That said, he's firmly in the first round pick discussion because he smashes every category. I can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
We've seen every team since the Trade Deadline occurred, which means we have information on what has changed for each team. Today, I'm going to the players whose value has changed, either by being traded, or by replacing somebody who was traded. Let's get to it!
Claude Giroux stepped right on the first line and first power play unit for Florida. Giroux had two assists and four shots on goal playing 17 minutes in the 4-3 win over Montreal. Giroux is obviously a hold, but there's top 50 upside getting to play with Barkov.
A lot of the big names that were expected to move at the trade deadline happened over the weekend. That means that I'm going to cover all of them in this post, while I'll cover the rest in a post for Tuesday morning. I'll mention every trade that happened over the last few days, however big or small, and comment on its fantasy impact. Let's get to it!
A personal favorite, Filip Forsberg, took over the game on Tuesday night, scoring four goals in the 6-0 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Forsberg 10 goals and 5 assists in 13 games. Not bad, not bad. The story is the same for Forsberg as it has been over the last five years. When he's on the ice, he's one of the best offensive players in the league. The problem is that he always seems to have an injury that causes him to miss a month. He's already missed eight games so fingers crossed that he stays healthy the rest of the way. His linemates (more on them later) have found their form as well giving Nashville a potent first line for the first time since Johansen was playing his best hockey and Arvidsson was at his peak goal scoring ability. He has a tough matchup with Boston on Thursday, but after that, Nashville has some easy opponents which could let Forsberg continue this goal scoring run. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Hey guys! Over the next month, I will be taking a look at each team’s players to watch out for going into the 2019-20 fantasy hockey season. This analysis features everything from surefire studs, to sleepers, to streamers, deeper league holds, even to rookie-eligible prospects that may make an appearance at some point this season. Please let me know if you guys enjoy this type of material! Reminder that the stat totals are from last season.
Last year my previews went alphabetically, but this year we’re going to go division-by-division, starting with the top team. On our 16th stop on the 31 in 31 tour, we crack open the Atlantic Division with the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning! It is no secret this team has a chip on its shoulder heading into this season, looking to take care of some unfinished business. With a few nice low-risk deals made this off-season, the Lightning look ready to dominate again.
