After blowing out the Senators on Tuesday, I was fully expecting the Sabres to lay an egg in Manhattan on Thursday. Instead, they scored on the first shift of the game and didn't look back. The Sabres won 6-1, with all twelve forwards getting at least one point in the game, just the second time that's happened in team history. Besides the top line continuing to dominate, the big story here is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL saved 25 of 26 shots on Thursday, with the lone goal a completely fluky deflection that looped over him. Based on expected goals metrics, this was a second monster game in a row for Luukkonen, with the Detroit game before that also a solid performance. He's getting back to the goalie that he was last season, which makes him a solid #2 in fantasy. The upside is there for a bottom end #1 because UPL is the clear #1 with Levi the backup. In fact, if Anaheim waives Reimer when Gibson comes back shortly, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sabres claim Reimer back and send Levi down I-90 to Rochester. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
On Thursday, the Florida Panthers brought the Rangers back to earth with a 3-1 win in The Garden. Leading the way was Sergei Bobrovsky, who made 24 saves in the win. Bob became the 14th goalie in NHL history to win 400 games, and set the record for the fewest games to reach 400 wins in the process. Assuming health, Bob will make the top ten all-time by the end of the season, and if he plays a couple seasons after this one, he should become the fourth goalie to reach 500 wins. It hadn't been the best start to this season, but with Tkachuk back and Barkov on the way, it's only a matter of time until the Panthers get rolling again. When that happens, Bob should get back to the top ten fantasy goalie that we're used to, with the upside of being the #1 goalie. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We keep things moving in these parts with the rest of my forward rankings. I am going to put these guys into tiers with comments on players that I think are worth discussion. For example, I'm not going to talk about Scheifele because at this point, we know he's going to be right around a point per game with his goals coming down to how effective the Winnipeg PP is. For the Top 40, you can read that here. Let's get to it!
We're very close to the All-Star break with most teams starting their extended break on Sunday. If you look at defensemen production, specifically in goals, you see notable names at the top. Dahlin leads defensemen in goals, and then there's a four way tie behind him with notables like Makar and Hughes. None of that is a surprise. Weegar is one of those tied with Makar and Hughes, which is very surprising, but he went into the season locked into a big role, so let's assume he had some good fortune. But Thomas Harley? He's a player I really liked in dynasties, but to be one goal off the league lead for defensemen? Not even close to my radar. Harley scored two goals on Saturday, including the overtime winner for a second straight game, in the 5-4 win over the Capitals. That gives Harley a whopping 12 goals in 46 games. "Even with Heiskanen back, Harley was a factor. I’m still holding Harley even though I wasn’t expecting to when Heiskanen came back. He’s been that good for the Stars." And that's me quoting me from three days ago copying what Grey does! Somehow, Harley is still available in almost two-thirds of fantasy leagues. With the pool of defensemen dropping off hard at the bottom, Harley should be owned in all formats. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
When the Flames acquired Yegor Sharangovich and a third round pick for Toffoli, the consensus was the Flames didn't get nearly enough for Toffoli off a 34 goal season. Well, here we are at the midway point of the season, and Sharangovich has more goals than Toffoli. Sharagovich had a hat trick on six shots on Thursday in the 6-2 victory over the Coyotes. That gives him 17+30 in 42 games. The minutes have been through the roof lately, and Sharangovich has rewarded Huska with 6+5 and over three shots per game in his last ten appearances. His speed is an absolute weapon and he's starting to be a focal point on the power play. At the end of the day, Sharangovich is probably somebody who is on the fringe, but for now, he's a definite hold. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It wouldn't be this Buffalo Sabres season if they didn't blow out an elite team after getting buried by a bottom feeder. The Sabres beat Toronto 9-3 on Thursday, becoming the first team in 40 years to score 9 goals in a game after conceding 9 in their previous game. Does this change my opinion on anyone on the Sabres? No, not really, they're just going to be an up and down team. The one notable thing is that Jack Quinn scored a goal on three shots with four PIM in his second game of the season. Quinn had a solid rookie season but suffered an Achilles injury in the offseason, setting back his sophomore season. It's encouraging that even with a fully healthy lineup, Quinn's line was getting plenty of usage. He's a middling streamer for now, but there's upside to an elite streamer this season, while Quinn has clear potential to be a permanent hold for years in dynasties. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The Leafs were coming off a dominant victory over the Rangers heading into a home game against Columbus. They managed to go down 5-0 in the second, and it was that way heading into the third period. Then, as we've seen in the past, Toronto made a massive rally, tying the game with 45 seconds left to earn a point. Then, like usual, they managed to lose anyways. The 6-5 OT win for Columbus is one of the craziest games you'll ever seen. Auston Matthews led the comeback with two goals and an assist with nine shots. Patrik Laine scored an early goal before leaving the game injured, while Kent Johnson was the hero. The former fifth overall pick had two goals and an assist, including the game winner. It's undeniably been a slow start to Johnson's career. However, for most players, it takes time, and we're starting to see the signs. Johnson now has six points in his last four games, and if Laine is down for a while, we could see Johnson becoming a fantasy factor. For now, I'm bumping him up to middling streamer, but he's definitely worth monitoring. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the ninth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the eighth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
How does Sidney Crosby keep getting better at 36 years old? Crosby had a hat trick and an assist on Tuesday, leading the Penguins to a 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets. He opened the scoring in the game, he got the lead back in the last six minuets and then sealed the game with an empty netter. That brings Crosby to 10 goals and 9 assists in 14 games while pushing four shots per game. He's on a nine game point streak and is a top 20 forward again. With the arrival of Erik Karlsson (goal and an assist, two shots), Crosby has a great chance of getting to 100 points for the first time in five seasons and 40 goals for the first time since 2016-17. I think at this point, he has to be considered a top five player of all-time. If you have him in fantasy, enjoy it, because there's no reason to expect regression. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
An easy win against the Kraken on Friday wasn't enough for Jay Woodcroft to keep his job. The most disappointing team in the league felt obligated to make a chance, and the easiest change is firing the head coach. Do I think this was the right move? Probably not. Woodcroft led the team to three playoff series wins over the last two seasons, losing to the eventual Cup champion both times. This season, McDavid rushed coming back to play the Heritage Classic and clearly isn't 100%. Ekholm looks hampered as well. Kris Knoblauch, who was their AHL coach and McDavid's former junior coach, takes over. I expect the team to improve because they've simply played well below expectations so far. So what does this impact in fantasy? Generally, teams play more focused on the defensive end when a new coach comes in. Is that even possible for the Oilers? Hard to say. If that does happen, Stuart Skinner could be the biggest beneficiary. He's been a disaster to this point, but it's clearly his job now (I have a hard time seeing Knoblauch turning to Pickard, even though he's been coaching him). We'll have to see tonight how the lines and usage change, but I suspect that he will ride the top players just like Woodcroft did. Let's take a look at the highlights of the weekend:
