The new Robert Thomas gets things done before 3 a.m. The Blues won their seventh straight game on Tuesday, destroying the Canadiens 6-1. Their best player led the way with a goal and three assists, giving him 2+11 in his last eight games. The Blues are getting closer and closer to a lock for the playoffs, which is a big triumph for Montgomery and the organization. It's not a knock on Kyrou or their other wingers, but I'd love to see what Thomas could do with a superstar winger on his side. In terms of a pure playmaker, Thomas would be in my top ten in the league, and probably top five. He's still only 25 years old and his game should age incredibly well, so now that his shot rate is to a below average level instead of a huge drain, Thomas is a great dynasty asset. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The big man has caught fire for Washington. Aliaksei Protas had his first career hat trick on Tuesday against the Ducks, scoring three goals on six shots. He has seven points in his last three games, bringing him to 28+3o in 65 games. Even with a poor shot rate, he's a no brainer hold, especially considering his +39 rating. I was absolutely shocked to see that he's available in over 60% of leagues still. Even the shot rate is starting to improve, as Protas has 26 SOG in his last ten games. Protas is still only 24 years old and has greatly increased his stock in dynasties as well. Yes, the shooting percentage has to regress over time. After all, he had only 6 goals last season shooting 5.3%, and now he's well over 20%. Even with that impending regression, he's getting to the right areas and Washington has turned into a powerhouse. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Well, my bold preseason prediction that Matvei Michkov would score 30+ goals has some hope. Since coming back from the Four Nations break, Michkov has completely torched the Oilers and the Penguins twice. Michkov scored two goals and an assist with four shots on Thursday, giving him eight points in his three games over the past week. Going back to the two games before the break, he also has 24 shots on goal in five games, which is incredibly encouraging going forward. I'm all in on Michkov long term as I've noted throughout the season, but his rough patch in January has left him on the waiver wire on around 50% of leagues. Even if he's just a hot schmotato for now, he's clearly must own right now because of the undeniable upside. If his shot rate gets up to three per game eventually, he's going to be a top 20 player for years. Let's take a look at what else happened on Thursday night:
If you want proof that no NHL coach has job security, look at what's happened over the last week. Boston is off to a slow start but after setting records two seasons ago and winning a playoff series six months ago, nobody saw him getting fired before American Thanksgiving. However, the news broke early on Tuesday that Boston was moving on with Joe Sacco as the interim coach. Then, on Sunday, St. Louis made a quick move to hire Montgomery. You have to feel bad for Drew Bannister, who only coached 76 games with the Blues and was a shocking 39-31-6 despite a weak roster, even though he was only 9-12-1 this season.
After blowing out the Senators on Tuesday, I was fully expecting the Sabres to lay an egg in Manhattan on Thursday. Instead, they scored on the first shift of the game and didn't look back. The Sabres won 6-1, with all twelve forwards getting at least one point in the game, just the second time that's happened in team history. Besides the top line continuing to dominate, the big story here is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL saved 25 of 26 shots on Thursday, with the lone goal a completely fluky deflection that looped over him. Based on expected goals metrics, this was a second monster game in a row for Luukkonen, with the Detroit game before that also a solid performance. He's getting back to the goalie that he was last season, which makes him a solid #2 in fantasy. The upside is there for a bottom end #1 because UPL is the clear #1 with Levi the backup. In fact, if Anaheim waives Reimer when Gibson comes back shortly, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sabres claim Reimer back and send Levi down I-90 to Rochester. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's been an incredible start for the Jets, and a big part of it is that the Jets coaching staff is finally playing their elite winger on the top unit. Nikolaj Ehlers had a hat trick and an assist with five shots in the 6-2 win over Columbus, before a goal and an assist with three shots in the 7-4 win over the Lightning. Ehlers has a whopping 8-9 in 12 games, dominating at even strength with solid PPP. This is while playing with a second line center who is clearly below average. What is Winnipeg makes an upgrade on Namesnikov eventually? I don't think Ehlers needs it, but it couldn't hurt. Regardless, career highs across the board are a near-certainty, and he could even beat the paces from his 28+27 in 62 games from three seasons ago. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Tuesday was a rare day in the NHL where every team plays Thankfully, they stagger all of the game times, marketing it as "Frozen Frenzy." Arguably the marquee matchup of the night was Tampa Bay at New Jersey, and it certainly was the craziest game. The Lightning fell behind 2-1 before scoring five goals within ten minutes in the second period. In that stretch, Brandon Hagel had a natural hat trick, finishing the game with an assist as well. And yet, that still hasn't put him on the first power play unit . Regardless, Hagel is off to a fantastic start. I wasn't as far ahead of ADP on him as Guenther, but I was very bullish on Hagel. I'm not sure he'll get to the 90 points I attempted to wish into existence with my bold predictions post, but it's in play if he gets that top power play time eventually. Come on Cooper, do it already! Let's take a look at what else happened in the one Monday game and Tuesday night.
We're going to move right into the Top 40 defensemen, following the Top 20 defensemen that you can read here. Let's get right into it!
21) Shea Theodore - This tier started with Montour in the top 20 and finishes with Theodore. If I was coaching Vegas, Theodore would be ranked much higher because he would never leave the first power play unit. He's clearly better than Pietrangelo and Hanifin, but to close the season, Hanifin was on the first unit. Theodore is risky because of that, but he's coming off 42 points in 47 games. It's hard to keep him any lower than this.
While Friday was mostly quiet, there were a couple big moves along with some nice depth acquisitions. I'm going to cover those moves and give some first impressions on players with their new teams. Let's get to it!
Winnipeg acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Devils for second and third round picks. Toffoli didn't play on Saturday so we don't know exactly where he'll slot in, but I love this move for Winnipeg. With a healthy Toffoli and Vilardi, it's a loaded top six with good depth behind them. Toffoli is owned almost everywhere, so saying that he's a hold everywhere doesn't really change anything. The upside is undeniable, whether he plays with Scheifele and presumably Connor, or with Ehlers and Monahan. Going from the team with the worst goaltending to arguably the best should fix the plus-minus and the shot rate should stay at 3+. What will swing his value the most is whether he goes on the first power play unit. They have Connor, Scheifele and Morrissey as locks. Then you have two spots for Toffoli, Vilardi, Ehlers and Monahan. We should find out on Monday, although Vilardi being out increases his chances, especially because Bowness hates Ehlers for reasons unknown. I would bet on a big finish from Toffoli.
The NHL Trade Deadline is Friday afternoon, and boy, did we have it kick into full gear on Wednesday. While the biggest name on the block wasn't moved (Guentzel), most of the other big names already moved. We also had a massive one for one hockey trade that makes a ton of sense for both sides. I'm going to look at all of the recent moves and talk about the impacts for both teams, from both the short term and long term. Let's get to it!
Fantasy Hockey Weekly Newsletter: Week 21
Hello everyone. Welcome to the twenty-first edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Fantasy Hockey Weekly Newsletter: Week 20
Hello everyone. Welcome to the twentieth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
