We're pushing through the halfway point today in terms of forwards as I get through the top 60.  To see my posts for the top 40 forwards, you can check that out here.  Let's get to it! 41) Jake Guentzel - Guentzel had his big regular season breakout with 40 goals and 36 assists last season.  At first, I was a little hesitant to rank Guentzel this high, but now I feel really good about.  One, he was stapled onto Crosby's wing all season.  I don't expect that to change.  Two, the shot rate took a huge jump forward in year three.  I wouldn't be surprised if he gets to 3+ per game this year.  Three, and the biggest thing, is that there's a spot for him on the first power play unit with Kessel's departure.  Guentzel had only 6 PPG and 5 PPA last season.  He could easily get to 20 PPP if he earns that spot in the preseason (his competition is Galchenyuk I guess?).  Sure, we can't expect 17.6% shooting again, but I don't expect much regression getting to play with Crosby.  I think Guentzel is a solid bet to get back to 40 goals again and boosts his assists to get up to a point per game.  He should be a solid value at this point, especially if he falls between last season's 26 PIM and his 42 in 2017-18.
We are at the point in the season where it's more important to lead my posts off with the things that have the biggest impact going forward and not the best performances.  Robin Lehner is currently day-to-day with what Barry Trotz called an upper-body injury.  When asked if it was a concussion, Trotz wouldn't give an answer.  Best wishes to Lehner to a speedy recovery no matter what the issue is, but he does have concussion history.  Thomas Greiss started on Thursday and made 35 saves on 37 shots in the 4-2 win over the Senators.  I wouldn't expect anything else against the Senators.  I have been saying Greiss is must-own for a few months now, but for some reason he's still only 27% owned!  If Lehner does miss time, Greiss has a legitimate chance to not only be a #1 goalie the rest of the way, but a top 5 goalie overall.  Pick him up immediately if he's still available in your league.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two days:
I've felt that Thomas Greiss was underrated for years.  When I started at Razzball, he was battling Halak for playing time and should have received more than he did.  Last season, when I was fully buying in, he was a mess.  This year, his value was so low that he was a nice gamble and he paid off handsomely.  Greiss had a 31 save shutout on Thursday beating Columbus 3-0.  Greiss is pushing a .930 save percentage and it's deserved; he's third in the league in goals saved about expectation.  The bad news is that his teammate is #2 in that category.  Look, Greiss isn't going to get the majority of starts, right around half of the Isles remaining games.  However, those starts are going to be extremely valuable.  He's only owned in 23% of leagues right now which is far too low.  That reason alone is why I'm starting this post with Greiss.  I've been saying for over a month that he should be owned in all formats, but if you're lucky enough for him to still be on the wire, go and get him.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
In my Monday post, I called Frank Vatrano the best streamer of the night.  As simple as my rationale was, getting to play with Barkov does wonders for anyone.  Vatrano has been playing well lately, but the jump to the first line helps tremendously, and he showed how on Monday.  Vatrano scored a goal and dished three assists in the 6-2 win over the Sharks, putting five shots on goal in the process.  Normally, I'd say go get Vatrano right now to see what happens.  There's definitely upside going forward.  The problem is that the Panthers don't play again until next Friday.  For those in roto leagues, I would grab Vatrano now and stash him on your bench.  In head to head leagues, I would wait until the middle of next week unless a spot opens up on your roster due to someone going on injured reserve.  However, I definitely want Vatrano for the back-to-back next weekend, so don't wait until last minute so you avoid somebody else sniping you on him.  There's a real chance Vatrano, who was a prolific AHL goal scorer and showed upside before in Boston, could become a hold for the rest of the season.  Let's take a look at what else happened this week:
It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about a Stanley Cup hangover for the Capitals.  Now, the defending champs have won 10 out of 12 on the backs of their captain, Alex Ovechkin.  Ovechkin recorded the 21st hat trick of his career on Tuesday extending his league lead in goals.  He now has 25 goals and 14 assists in only 30 games this season to go along with 116 shots.  That means he's below four shots per game, a rarity for The Great Eight, but still an elite rate.  Sure, his shooting percentage is going to drop a bit, but there's no reason at all to expect a regression.  I've seen a few articles on other sites that say you should sell high on Ovechkin, and I'd have to disagree.  He gets drafted in the first round for his incredibly high floor, and nothing has changed to reduce that floor.  Let the good times roll and enjoy what should be his eighth 50 goal season of his career.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
When we think about Tom Wilson going wild, it usually refers to him doing something dirty and piling up penalty minutes.  Don't get me wrong, he's still getting penalty minutes, but he's been fabulous offensively since returning from suspension.  Wilson scored two goals and an assist with six shots and two PIM in the 4-1 win over the Islanders on Monday.  In his eight games, Wilson has 6+6 with a +6 rating, 11 PIM and 21 SOG.  He's also averaging over 20 minutes per night.  There's no doubt about it, Wilson should be owned in all formats right now.  He's still available in about 1/3rd of leagues, so if you're lucky enough to be in one of them, pounce immediately.  Obviously he's not going to stay at a point per game, but the offensive will be solid with this workload, and we know the PIM will be glorious.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Jonathan Quick was already out.  Now Jack Campbell is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury.  That makes Cal Petersen the starter in Los Angeles for the time being.  Petersen was a 5th round pick for the Sabres that blossomed at Notre Dame and signed with the Kings after he became a free agent due to waiting out his time at Notre Dame.  He is a very good prospect, and now he's jumped into the show.  In his two starts over the weekend, Petersen made 34 saves on 35 shots against the Blackhawks before stopping 38 of 42 shots against the Predators.  Obviously the Kings are a bad team, but their schedule is decent for the next two weeks, so I don't mind taking a gamble on Petersen if you need goaltending help.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Everyone knew that Elias Pettersson was an elite prospect who was going to score plenty in the NHL.  In a year where rookies around the NHL actually look like rookies, Pettersson is lighting the world on fire.  Petterson scored two goals and added three assists in the 7-6 win over Colorado on Friday, boosting his totals to an insane 9+6 in 9 games so far.  Obviously he's not going to shoot 39% all season, but after lower minutes to open the year, Pettersson has played at least 18 minutes in each of the last four games, including the last two over 20.  For redrafts, he should be a borderline top 50 player this season.  In dynasties, Pettersson is a top 20 talent.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Last year's point leader for defensemen is off to an even better start this season.  John Carlson had a goal and two assists on Monday, bringing his totals to 5/8/+6/6/19/8 through eight games.  It was hard to see any upside from last season's totals, but some shooting percentage luck could have Carlson around 20+50.  Add in a quality plus-minus, and there's a chance that Carlson ends up the #1 defenseman for the season.  It's far from a guarantee, but it's abundantly clear through three weeks that last season's big breakout was no fluke.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
What's the worst spot for a goaltender to start right now?  Probably against Toronto on the road.  Well, Matt Murray had that exact spot on Thursday, and did the exact opposite of what most expected.  In a game where Toronto's expected goal total was pushing 4, Murray stopped all 38 shots he faced, shutting out the powerhouse Maple Leafs 3-0.  Murray's upside is undeniable; it's just a matter of keeping him on the ice and the defense in front of him not being a total mess.  For now, expect the Pens to give him the vast majority of the starts, meaning you can safely cut Casey DeSmith.  The Penguins schedule is fairly soft over the next couple of weeks, so feel safe rolling Murray.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights: