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Jonas Johansson

Jules

JOT This Down 7.0

November 20, 2023 | 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey, JOT This Down |

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Hello everyone. Welcome to the seventh edition of JOT This Down! Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume six. I appreciate it.  Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Viz

Shutouts Galore

October 26, 2023 | 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Daily Notes | 41 Comments

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It was quite the low scoring day on Thursday, with eight of the eleven games going under their betting total, two of which needed overtime to do so, plus there was a miracle in Boston (more on that later).  There were four shutouts on the night, all of which were quite surprising.  I'll go in chronological order.  The Avalanche were undefeated on the season, so naturally Tristan Jarry shut them out, making 31 saves.  Jarry now has two shutouts, two dreadful starts, and one mediocre start.  He's one of the highest variance goalies around.  I'm lower on him than most, but I acknowledge that he could be a bottom end #1.  Next, Jonas Johansson had his second consecutive shutout, making 23 saves against the Sharks.  He's clearly must own for now, although like Jarry, the downside is undeniable.  Joel Hofer shutout the Flames, making 27 saves.  I was high on him because I don't believe in Binnington.  Both have been off to a hot start, but I'm skeptical of the Blues being good defensively.  I'm bullish in Hofer for dynasties, but in redrafts, he's a selective streamer with upside.  Lastly, Jonathan Quick shut out the Oilers, making 29 saves.  He made a couple spectacular saves, but color me skeptical.  I think this says more about the Oilers without McJesus than anything.  Quick is a reasonable streamer in plus matchups for now, but know that it could blow up in your face.  Let's see what else happened on Wednesday and Thursday night:
Viz

Toffoli Time

October 25, 2023 | 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Daily Notes | 41 Comments

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I was extremely bullish on Tyler Toffoli's fit with the Devils, even though he wasn't a lock to be on PP1.  "Before last season, Toffoli had never topped 31 goals or 29 assists, so expecting a repeat for a guy entering his 11th season in the league seems farfetched.  That said, it’s hard to pick a better spot to be in than New Jersey right now for even strength play.  People were worried about Toffoli’s power play role to open, but it looks like the Devils are starting with the two balanced unit approach.  Personally, I hate it, but it’s a big boost to the value of the guy who normally would be on PP2, which Toffoli looked to be.  I’m all the way in."  And that's me quoting me in my bold predictions saying Toffoli averages at least a point per game.  He was off to a solid start, but he had his first big game on Tuesday.  Toffoli scored a hat trick on six shots in a revenge game against the Canadiens.  That brings Toffoli to 4+2 in five games with 4.5 shots per game.  There's a real chance that he ends up as a top 50 player.  Let's take a look at what else happened in the Monday game and the Frozen Frenzy.
Jules

JOT This Down: Volume One

October 9, 2023 | 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire, JOT This Down | 21 Comments

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Hello everyone. Welcome to the first edition of JOT This Down! For those who do not know me, my name is Julian Tarevski (Jules) and I am a fantasy sports content contributor from London, Ontario. (I may be an Ontarian but please do not assume I am a Maple Leafs fan.) I will be here every week with a newsletter, think of it like a message to start your Monday and help you prepare for your weekly matchup. I will cover notable line changes, guys who jumped up on the top powerplay unit, category fillers to watch, and sleepers to stream with favorable schedules.
Viz

Oil Explosion

March 28, 2023 | 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Daily Notes | 14 Comments

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The Oilers are peaking at the right time, as they've gone from battling for a playoff spot to battling for the Pacific Division.  It started with a 5-4 win over the Coyotes on Monday, before a dominating 7-4 win over the Golden Knights on Tuesday.  The man leading the way was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who continued his career season.  RNH had a goal and an assist on Monday, before following that up with a goal and four assists with two shots against Vegas.  That brings RNH up to a whopping 96 points (35+61), blowing away his previous career high of 69 points.  96, much nicer than 69.  McDavid and Draisaitl justifiably get most of the attention surrounding the Oilers, but the impact that RNH has made this season can't be understated. Adding a third 100+ point player to the mix is insane, and Edmonton has as good of a set of forwards as there is in the league.  They're a bit light on games the rest of the way, but their schedule is among the softest in the league, so look for the studs to continue to crush.  As for where RNH will rank next season, that's an extremely difficult question to answer.  I have to expect some regression, but how much?  Given the mediocre shot rate, I assume I'll have RNH towards the bottom of the top 50?  If he's only a PPG guy, there's plenty of value but it would be a bit underwhelming compared to other guys in his range i.e. his floor is lower.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Viz

Reinhart’s Revenge

December 2, 2021 | 2021-22 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Daily Notes | 14 Comments

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It's no surprise that an ex-Sabre destroyed the Sabres in their first game against their former team.  I've seen it for the better part of the decade.  The surprise was that the Sabres stormed out to a 3-0 and 4-1 lead, only to blow the game.  Sam Reinhart had a goal and three assists with two shots in the comeback, but that's not what makes me excited.  Four points doesn't make me excited?  Well, it does, but what really excites me is that Reinhart moved onto the first line once the game was 4-1.  The line change sparked the Florida comeback, and I'd have to think they keep Reinhart there to start next game.  I've already been holding Reinhart, but he is available in a fairly large number of leagues.  I'd grab him now because if he stays on the top line, we could see him push towards a point per game. 
Viz

Ullmark Suffers Brutal Injury

January 29, 2020 | 2019-20 Fantasy Hockey, Fantasy Hockey Daily Notes | 11 Comments

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There wasn't a lot of action the last two days after the All-Star Break, but sadly we saw what certainly appeared to be a severe injury.  Linus Ullmark has established himself as the clear #1 goalie for the Sabres this season playing at a league average level.  He collapsed to the ice on Tuesday against the Senators with what appeared to be a bad leg injury.  There hasn't been an update yet, but I would be surprised to see if he ends up out for the season.  So what does that mean for the Sabres and for us fantasy hockey players?  Well, the Sabres are far from the best situation, but Ullmark has been serviceable.  Carter Hutton has been one of the worst goalies in the league, so unless he has a bunch of good starts in a row, I have no interest in using him.  I suspect that Jonas Johansson is called up from Rochester.  Johansson is a former third round pick who was an AHL All-Star this season.  He's taken a huge jump forward as he was serviceable in the ECHL last season but that's about it.  However, goalies are strange and perhaps he catches lightning in a bottle.  I wouldn't rush to add him, but he's a name worth monitoring.  Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
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