It's one of my favorite posts of the year! Sure, a lot of trades have been done in advance of the deadline, but there's sure to be more action today. Starting around noon eastern, I'll be updating this post with instant analysis on every trade that takes place. All of the moves from Wednesday and Thursday are below as well, with all previous moves in other posts.
As someone who is a big believer in Jason Robertson and had him ranked 32nd overall, a bit ahead of consensus, I did not see this coming. Robertson scored a hat trick on Thursday versus the Ducks, bringing him to 22+17 in 24 games. Is that good? Then you see Robertson is averaging under 18 minutes per game and realize that given a normal superstar workload, it would be even better! He's been absolutely incredible to this point and if the season ended today, he'd be the Hart Trophy winner. Is it going to last like this? Probably not. But he's clearly a top 10 player at this point, which is insane considering that two seasons ago, he was a second round pick rookie. Whatever scout led Dallas to picking Robertson deserves all of the money. Let's see what else happened over the last two nights:
The Sabres got off to a hot start this season despite their top line struggling to get on the scoresheet. On Saturday, they started the turnaround against the Blackhawks, but that game paled in comparison to what they did on Monday. Against the Red Wings, the Sabres scored eight goals, led by their $50 million man, Tage Thompson. Thompson had the game of the early season, scoring three goals, dishing three assists, and putting nine total shots on goal. All it took was two games for Thompson to turn his October into a monster month with 6+6 in nine games with over four shots per game. Granato told him that he needed to start shooting the puck more, and that's turned into 25 shots in the past three games alone. Obviously he's not going to keep up that rate, but Thompson could turn into a top 50 player if he pushes his shot rate to over four per game. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I certainly won't be doing any victory laps after the first weekend, but Sam Bennett made me look good on Saturday, scoring a hat trick on six shots in the 5-1 win over the Islanders. Bennett finds himself in the same role as last season when he blew up after the trade deadline. Remarkably, he's still available in 40% of leagues on ESPN. I assume nobody that reads my posts would be in a league where Bennett is on the waiver wire, but if he is, grab him right now. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Toronto being up 5-1 on Ottawa with a minute to go in the second period wasn't exactly surprising. The final result? Well, I hope you didn't turn the game off. The Senators, arguably the worst team in the league, stormed back to win 6-5 in OT. Evgenii Dadonov tied the game with 2 minutes left before scoring the overtime winner. That gives Dadonov five goals in his last five games after a sluggish start in Ottawa. Is it going to be as good as it was in Florida? Certainly not. However, Dadonov is starting to build value again to the point where he's a solid streamer. I wouldn't be surprised to see the minutes go up even higher to the point where he's an elite streamer. Let's take a look at what else happened on Monday:
It was only a matter of time until Vladimir Tarasenko picked up his play. Tarasenko had four goals over the weekend, including a hat trick on Sunday, in two games against the Predators. That gives him an eight game point streak to get to 22+19 on the season. Obviously that's still disappointing, but there's time for him to salvage the season. Hell, the Blues are even in a playoff spot now because of how bad the Western Conference is. Look for them to make some additions at the deadline because of all of the moves they made in the summer. Missing the playoffs would be a major disappointment, and creating depth for the lineup would help things out for Tarasenko. The buy low window is probably closed but there's a strong chance that he's a top 30 player the rest of the way. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Things can change quickly in hockey. Matt Murray led the Pens to two Stanley Cups, then struggled mightily last season and to open this year. Now, Murray has caught fire once again. The netminder had a 33 save shutout on Friday against the Jets. That means in his last 6 games, he's allowed 6 goals total with his worst save percentage being .931. We've seen the upside before, and that's of a top 5 goaltender, if not more. First off, he's somehow available in 15% of leagues, which is absurd. If you're lucky enough to be in one, grab him immediately. Two, if you own Casey DeSmith, you can safely drop him. Lastly, I doubt you'll be able to trade for him given his hot run, but I'd much rather do that than sell high. The upside of Murray is too high to pass on, and with the Pens playing as well as they lately, the floor is fairly high too. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Here is what I wrote about J.T. Miller in Tuesday's post: "J.T. Miller is getting huge minutes in Tampa and has six points in six games for the Bolts. The shot rate is rough, but Miller should be held despite that. Everything else should be a clear plus and nothing is better than playing for Tampa. Miller was on the fringe for the Rangers so this move is enough to move him to a hold." And that's me quoting me! Well, Miller exploded on Tuesday night, scoring his first career hat trick and putting ten shots on goal. He played over 20 minutes, including on the top power play unit. Long story short, if you had any doubt about whether Miller should be held, this game should eliminate that. Pick the man up because he can be a huge difference maker down the stretch. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
Gretzky, Lemieux, Forsberg, LaFontaine. That's the list of players in the last 30 seasons to have multiple five assist games in one season. Add Mathew Barzal to the list after Friday night. Barzal became the first rookie in 100 years to have three five point games in one season dishing five assists in the 7-6 win over the Red Wings. That puts Barzal over a point per game on the season and makes him the prohibitive favorite for the Calder (sorry Boeser). Our second podcast ever, which took place before last season, saw Reid and I hype up Barzal for dynasties. Regardless, he's blown away my expectations this season. Now, it's not all rosy for fantasy. The penalty minutes are low, but more importantly the shot rate is barely over two per game. On the other hand, he's 20 years old and is over a point per game, so it's hard to complain. There's a top 20 fantasy player in Barzal's future if he can get that shot rate up. Regardless, he'll be a borderline top 50 player next year solely for the points, and it's only going to get better from there. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Add another goalie to the list of guys who struggled in the opening month only to turn it around. Braden Holtby, the consensus #1 goaltender going into the season, showed us why this weekend with two big performances. Holtby saved 27 shots in Friday's 4-1 win over the Penguins and followed it up with 29 saves in the 2-1 SO win over the Oilers. Just like that, his save percentage is back to its normal level. Sure, the goals against average is still a little high, but goals are up around the league and it's not out of the realm of possibility it goes back down. With the massive win total as well, expect Holtby to get back to the #1 goalie by season's end. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
I was all in on the Tampa Bay Lightning again this year picking them to make the Stanley Cup Finals. Obviously they don't crown champions 3 weeks into the season but Tampa has started off incredibly well. They've had some depth players step up but at the end of the day, their studs have been incredible. The top two players in points in the NHL by a wide margin are both Lightning players with Steven Stamkos. Tampa Bay blitzed Pittsburgh 7-1 on Saturday and Stamkos led the way with a goal, three assists and four shots on goal. That gives Stamkos a whopping 17 points (3+14) in 9 games. Stamkos was a player who consistently dropped in my drafts into the third round and while it's too early to celebrate given Stamkos' injury, it's been the dream start. Fingers crossed that he stays healthy because Stammer could be a top 10, maybe even top 5 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Elias Lindholm has had a disappointing start to his NHL career. After being a top 5 pick in 2013, Lindholm has failed to reach 40 points in the first three seasons of his career. It's certainly not the end of the world given that he just turned 22 years old; not everybody is a McJesus or MacKinnon and dominates right out of the gate. Lindholm is currently in the midst of the best streak of his young career. On Friday night against the Sabres, Lindholm dished an assist and added four shots extending his point streak to five games. He followed up it with a massive game scoring a goal and two assists with five shots in the 7-4 win over the Islanders. That brings his point streak to six games and gives him 18 points in 33 games to this point. Obviously this isn't going to last but Lindholm is an elite streamer at the moment and like a few other young forwards on his team, there's some real sleeper potential here for 2017-18. Let's take a look at what else happened around the league over the weekend:
