If you didn't catch Part One of this two part series, you can check that out here. Today, I am going to look at the Western Conference, focusing on one player for each team that has been a big disappointment, or blown expectations out of the water. In each case, I'll talk about what's caused their start, and whether or not I'm expecting it to change for better or worse. Let's get to it!
It's not every day that we see a hat trick from a defenseman, but we got one on Tuesday night. The Kraken destroyed the Canadiens from the get go, and Brandon Montour really dug their grave. Seattle's big free agent acquisition had a natural hat trick on four shots, adding an assist and two PIM in the 8-2 beatdown. I was fairly bullish on Montour going into the season, and he's delivered nine points in ten games so far, with over three shots per game. The main reason I wasn't all in on Montour, as you can see in my preseason rankings, is that I was unsure on how Disco Dan would set everything up for Seattle. Well, Dunn ended up getting hurt right away and ended up on LTIR, alleviating any concerns. Montour should be an elite #2 in 12'ers for the time being, with the upside of being a #1. Let's take a look at what else happened over the two nights:
We're through my Top 20 overall and now it's time to focus on specific position groups. I'm starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it's a head to head league, I'm never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there's no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it's great to have Igor, but you're going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I'd end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I'm a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I'm not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros' numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you're not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let's look at the cream of the crop!
Out of the top ranked goalies in the preseason, only Hellebuyck has played at an elite level. This is a big reason why I don't take goalies in the first two rounds, if not longer, because the variance is too high. My #1 goalie going into the season was Jake Oettinger. He didn't play well in the first half and also missed time due to injury. The All-Star break proved to be a good reset, as Oettinger was out of his mind on Tuesday. Oettinger made 47 saves in the 2-1 win over the Sabres, stealing the game for the Stars. After tomorrow, there's only two back-to-backs in the next four weeks for the Stars. We should see Oettinger get plenty of action, and I'd bet on him finishing the season strong. I don't do midseason rankings because I don't see a lot of value for the time it takes. You have the team you have, and if you are making trades, you need to target your weaknesses to improve. That said, if I was ranking for the rest of the season, Oettinger would still be a top five goalie. I'm not betting against him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the second edition of JOT This Down!
It was so nice to have hockey back on the screens after so long without it. The NHL is in a really good place in terms of the level of talent in the league right now. In almost every game, you will see a jaw-dropping play or an unbelievable stat line, sometimes from someone you would have never expected it from. Take Brock Boeser for example (add him if he is somehow available), nobody could have predicted that on opening night, but you never know what will happen in the NHL. That’s why in a sport with a lot of luck and volatility, never get too upset if things don’t go your way. It’s a long season, and there’s always next week to bounce back. Treat it as a hobby and have some fun.
You guys know I like to start my posts about players who could be available in a large percentage of leagues that you can target on the waiver wire. After all, being aggressive at the bottom of your roster is a huge factor in fantasy hockey. However, sometimes a player has a weekend so good that you have to give him his due. This time, that player is Auston Matthews. Matthews scored three goals on Saturday, recording his second hat trick in as many games. Look, everybody knows the upside. We're talking about a guy who scored 60 goals two seasons ago on his way to the Hart trophy. He's obviously in that tier right behind McDavid, and the only reason I had him towards the bottom of the tier is that he tends to miss 10-15 games a season. If Matthews can play 75+ games, a repeat of 60 goals is well within reason. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
If you didn’t see Part One, you can check it out here. My big takeaway from doing these rankings is that goaltending gets ugly fairly quickly. It’s going to be difficult to get a #2 that you feel safe with unless you reach for goalies early. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Carolina's offense has been a bit disappointing overall, with only Aho sitting around a point per game. The injury to Patches really put a hole in their lineup that I assume they're going to address before the trade deadline. On the bright side, their most recent high draft pick just had the game of his early career. Seth Jarvis scored a hat trick in the 6-2 win over Montreal on Thursday. Overall, Jarvis has taken a step back offensively this season which is disappointing. His points are down despite playing 2 minutes more per game on average. It's dropped him down to being a middling streamer, but it hasn't really changed my long term opinion of him. He has great speed, solid hands, and an elite compete level. Jarvis just turned 21 years old so the best is yet to come. If you owned him in a dynasty, I wouldn't panic. He's going to be a top six winger for a long time. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Another big domino fell in the trade market on Thursday with Vladimir Tarasenko joining the Russian contingent in Manhattan. The Rangers also received Niko Mikkola, while giving up Sammy Blais, Hunter Skinner, a first round pick in 2023, and a conditional fourth round pick in 2024 that will almost certainly turn into a third (the Rangers need to make the playoffs for that to happen). The first round pick that the Blues get will be the lesser of the New York and Dallas first round picks. I'm a big fan of this move for the Rangers. A late round first for a quality rental is a solid price, they get to dump Blais in the deal, Skinner isn't much of a prospect, and they get some blueline depth with Mikkola. Tarasenko gets a boost in this trade, and potentially a big one. He'll almost certainly go on the opposite wing of Panarin, and if Zibanejad stays at center with Panarin, that's a great spot to be in. The big question is whether Tarasenko goes on the vaunted first power play unit in Trocheck's place. It's a different position than he's used to playing on the power play, but Trocheck isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Trocheck would be a big loser if Tarasenko does take that spot. We should get an answer on that tonight. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Matthew Tkachuk entered the All-Star break on a massive hot streak. He continued it at the All-Star Game, winning MVP honors. Needless to say, it was continued on Monday night against their rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tkachuk had two goals and three assists with six shots in the 7-1 win over Tampa, going +5 in the process. Tkachuk has managed to blow last season's 42+62 out of the water to this point. He's the #3 forward overall on the season and has the most balanced stat line of everyone in the entire league. Marchand was a top five forward for years because of his all-around contribution. Now, that spot is Tkachuk's. He's every bit of a top five player now and going forward. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Colorado has been decimated by injuries at a level we've never seen before. The return of Valeri Nichushkin makes him their second healthy top six forward. Luckily for them, Mikko Rantanen put the team on his back on Sunday. After scoring Colorado's only goal against the Rangers on Friday, Rantanen scored all three goals for Colorado on Sunday, tying the game with 7.1 seconds left before winning the game in overtime. Quietly, Rantanen is up to 19 goals on the season, playing at a higher point pace than his monster 2021-22. The shot rate is down a bit so his goal rate is a bit unsustainable, but hopefully the shots tick back up without MacKinnon. Regardless, Rantanen has cemented himself as a top 10 fantasy hockey player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
As fun as it is to make fun of Toronto's Stanley Cup drought, it's very impressive when somebody breaks one of their major records. On Saturday, Mitch Marner did just that, getting a point in his 19th consecutive game, scoring twice on five shots. Toronto fans love to make Marner their whipping boy, but this should give him a respite until the playoffs come along. The shot rate is slowly creeping back up for Marner, which is a necessity if he's going to approach last season's point total. He's a bit behind at even strength, but he's managed to be even better on the power play. Marner is as safe as it gets in fantasy at this point and remains in the top 20. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
