For today's post, I'm going to do something a bit different from what I've done in the past. Yes, we don't want to overreact to only 10 days worth of games. That is something I have preached on here for a decade now, as being stubborn and sticking to your priors is generally the best course of action. That said, we do have some more information now than we did ten days ago, and we don't want to completely ignore that. Today, I'm going to highlight some players that are off to amazing starts, and others that have started terribly. Am I buying the hot start, or looking to sell them? Am I worried about the struggling start for a player, or betting on them turning it around? Let's find out!
One way to prove last season's breakout wasn't a fluke? Get an early hat trick. Kirill Marchenko did just that, scoring three times on four shots in the 7-4 win over the Wild. Yes, Marchenko didn't get any points in the Columbus opener, but the eight shots on goal also goes a long way. I was neutral compared to consensus on Marchenko going into the season, but I already kind of regret not being bullish. Columbus is playing a wide open, attacking style, and their best forward will continue to benefit from it. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We're three days into the season with everyone playing one or two games so far. Today, I'm going to give an immediate reaction to every team, focusing on something that was either unexpected, or confirming a preseason belief that I had. Let's get right to it!
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Mason McTavish looks to be their #1 forward. We'll see if it holds, but he played the most minutes of anyone on the team besides LaCombe, getting over 20 minutes. The 22 year old should be owned everywhere.
Opening night is here! MarmosDad will be back tomorrow with a division preview, while my next post is going to be on Friday recapping how teams look over the next few nights. For now, I'm going to give you my ten bold predictions for the season. Last season, I correctly called Hagel for 90 points and Ovechkin setting the goal record despite a rough 23-24. Again, these calls are meant to be bold, so my goal is to his 3 of these, maybe 4. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, leave them below. Let's get to it!
1) Matvei Michkov scores 90 points.
Look, I made Michkov 20th overall in my rankings just to show how much I like him this season. His betting line for the season is around 66.5 depending on the sportsbook, so we're predicting Michkov to go way over. If you want to read why I'm so bullish on Michkov, you can check out my Top 20 here. As a secondary predicition, I'll say Zegras sets a new career high in points, which means he gets 66+. A new start should be exactly what Zegras needed.
We're one day from the season starting! After watching football all day Sunday, I can't wait for hockey to start. What a miserable day of football, culminating with my Bills playing horribly against the Patriots, with the referees trying to take over the game, constantly calling garbage against both teams. Anyways... all of my rankings are out, so I'm going to talk about my ten favorite late round picks. What allows these guys to qualify is that their ADP on Yahoo! or ESPN are outside of the top 200. A couple things for clarification to start: I'm talking about 10 or 12'ers where I'm trying to shoot the moon late. Worst case, we turn the pick into a streamer spot. Best case, we end up holding the guy all season. One of the best calls I had over the years was Victor Oloffson's rookie year, when he has 20+22 in 54 games before the COVID shutdown. In deep leagues, we want to go safer towards the end of the draft because the waiver wire is barren. Guys like Jason Zucker or Trevor Moore, who are middling streamers in 12'ers, become clear holds in deeper leagues and should be your target. Let's look at those lottery tickets!
And with today's post, I wrap up my fantasy hockey rankings for the season. Today's post is simply going to be a Top 200 list that puts all of the positions together. All of the analysis on these players is covered in previous posts that you can find by going to the Razzball Hockey homepage, or by clicking my name at the top of the article, which will link you to everything that I've posted on the site. The plan is to have a post on Monday about my favorite targets in the last few rounds of the draft and my general strategy with those picks, and then have my bold predictions post come out Tuesday. MarmosDad's next division preview will be out on Wednesday, and then I'll be back on Friday recapping the action from the first three nights. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please leave them at the bottom of this post. Ad without further adieu, my top 200!
We're onto the last position in my rankings, the netminders. Goalies make a huge difference in fantasy hockey, but they also have the most variability from year to year. There's only a handful of goalies that we can consistently count on every season to finish in the top ten, and that floor is why they are ranked as high as they are. Because of their unpredictability, I'm very unlikely to take a goalie in the first four rounds, especially in head to head leagues. Even if your league reaches for goalies early, don't panic. Last season, I was extremely high on Kuemper and was able to get him as my G3 everywhere. He finished as the #3 goalie overall. I liked the Leafs platoon for roto leagues, and Stolarz finished as G4. Meanwhile, top ranked goalies such as Shesterkin and Saros disappointed, and they were far from the only ones. Patience is key for drafting goalies. I'm going to separate all of the goalies into tiers, so let's get to it!
We keep moving along with defensemen 21-40 for the upcoming season. In case you missed it, you can see the Top 20 here. This is a reminder that MarmosDad will have his first post of the year on Wednesday, and I will be back on Thursday. Let's get right to it!
21) John Carlson - This tier started with McAvoy and goes through Toews. This feels a bit harsh on Carlson, but I'd rather be conservative on a 35 year old trending the wrong way. As I mentioned in the Chychrun board, Carlson is at risk for losing PP1 time for the first time in over a decade. I think they'll try both of them to start again to be fair, but it's possible. I do think the goals bounce back closer to 10, but 10+45 seems close to the best case now. That's fine, but don't draft based on name recognition.
We're through the Top 100 forwards now, so it's time to mvoe to the blue line. The plan for the rest of the week is to go through the Top 20 defensemen today, and then 21-40 tomorrow. Then, MarmosDad is going to be back in the fold and will have his first post on Wednesday. I'll move onto goalies on Thursday, before what I post on Friday. It will either be the Top 200 list, or players that I like the most out of the players I've already ranked that you can target in the later rounds. Let's get to those defensemen!
We wrap up my forward rankings by going through the Top 100 today. As a reminder, there will be a separate post once my rankings are done for my favorite late round targets in 10-12 team leagues, but this post should get us comfortably through round 15 or so when you factor in goalies and defensemen. If you haven't seen the Top 60, you can check that out here. Let's get to it!
I'm slightly pivoting from my original plan to keep things moving. Today, I'm going to go through the forwards ranked 42-60 in full detail like I have with the first 41 forwards. Then, I'm going to have a post ranking 61-100 where I will still right more than it simply be a list, but I'm going to highlight players that I like or dislike compared to consensus, and limit what I write about players who we know who they are at this point e.g. Kopitar in his last season. If you missed the Top 40 post, you can check that out here. Let's get to it!
This post is going to be a long one, so I'm going to cut right to the chase. Today, we're going to look at the Top 40 forwards. The top 16 were covered in my Top 20, which you can read here. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please leave them below. Let's get to it!
