Today, I'm going to take a look at what has changed for some power plays around the league after the first two weeks of the season. I am going to focus on personnel changes that involve two players being swapped, not ones caused by injuries, unless the injury is long term. I'll talk about how it changes the value for each player and whether I expect this to hold going forward, or whether I think it's a matter of time until it changes back. Let's get to it!
Here is the list of teams that have 0 or 1 loss so far (overtime included): Colorado, Winnipeg, Carolina, New Jersey, and Detroit. None of the first four come as a surprise at all. However, Detroit reeling off five in a row after a dreadful opener is a huge surprise. They've been better defensively than expected, but the big thing so far is Dylan Larkin carrying the top line. No Raymond for a couple games, no Kane today, no problem. Larkin had a goal and an assist on Friday, including the overtime winner against Tampa, before scoring two goals and two assists in the 4-2 win over Edmonton Sunday. That brings Larkin to a whopping 5+6 in six games to go along with 20 shots and a +9 rating. Despite playing with a recent seventh round pick and a bottom six guy in Appleton while Raymond was out, Larkin has at least one point in every game so far. It's early to predict career highs from Larkin, but I'm not ruling out his first point per game season. With his elite shot rate, we could see his first top 50 season in three years. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
For today's post, I'm going to do something a bit different from what I've done in the past. Yes, we don't want to overreact to only 10 days worth of games. That is something I have preached on here for a decade now, as being stubborn and sticking to your priors is generally the best course of action. That said, we do have some more information now than we did ten days ago, and we don't want to completely ignore that. Today, I'm going to highlight some players that are off to amazing starts, and others that have started terribly. Am I buying the hot start, or looking to sell them? Am I worried about the struggling start for a player, or betting on them turning it around? Let's find out!
One way to prove last season's breakout wasn't a fluke? Get an early hat trick. Kirill Marchenko did just that, scoring three times on four shots in the 7-4 win over the Wild. Yes, Marchenko didn't get any points in the Columbus opener, but the eight shots on goal also goes a long way. I was neutral compared to consensus on Marchenko going into the season, but I already kind of regret not being bullish. Columbus is playing a wide open, attacking style, and their best forward will continue to benefit from it. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We're three days into the season with everyone playing one or two games so far. Today, I'm going to give an immediate reaction to every team, focusing on something that was either unexpected, or confirming a preseason belief that I had. Let's get right to it!
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Mason McTavish looks to be their #1 forward. We'll see if it holds, but he played the most minutes of anyone on the team besides LaCombe, getting over 20 minutes. The 22 year old should be owned everywhere.
Opening night is here! MarmosDad will be back tomorrow with a division preview, while my next post is going to be on Friday recapping how teams look over the next few nights. For now, I'm going to give you my ten bold predictions for the season. Last season, I correctly called Hagel for 90 points and Ovechkin setting the goal record despite a rough 23-24. Again, these calls are meant to be bold, so my goal is to his 3 of these, maybe 4. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, leave them below. Let's get to it!
1) Matvei Michkov scores 90 points.
Look, I made Michkov 20th overall in my rankings just to show how much I like him this season. His betting line for the season is around 66.5 depending on the sportsbook, so we're predicting Michkov to go way over. If you want to read why I'm so bullish on Michkov, you can check out my Top 20 here. As a secondary predicition, I'll say Zegras sets a new career high in points, which means he gets 66+. A new start should be exactly what Zegras needed.
We're one day from the season starting! After watching football all day Sunday, I can't wait for hockey to start. What a miserable day of football, culminating with my Bills playing horribly against the Patriots, with the referees trying to take over the game, constantly calling garbage against both teams. Anyways... all of my rankings are out, so I'm going to talk about my ten favorite late round picks. What allows these guys to qualify is that their ADP on Yahoo! or ESPN are outside of the top 200. A couple things for clarification to start: I'm talking about 10 or 12'ers where I'm trying to shoot the moon late. Worst case, we turn the pick into a streamer spot. Best case, we end up holding the guy all season. One of the best calls I had over the years was Victor Oloffson's rookie year, when he has 20+22 in 54 games before the COVID shutdown. In deep leagues, we want to go safer towards the end of the draft because the waiver wire is barren. Guys like Jason Zucker or Trevor Moore, who are middling streamers in 12'ers, become clear holds in deeper leagues and should be your target. Let's look at those lottery tickets!
And with today's post, I wrap up my fantasy hockey rankings for the season. Today's post is simply going to be a Top 200 list that puts all of the positions together. All of the analysis on these players is covered in previous posts that you can find by going to the Razzball Hockey homepage, or by clicking my name at the top of the article, which will link you to everything that I've posted on the site. The plan is to have a post on Monday about my favorite targets in the last few rounds of the draft and my general strategy with those picks, and then have my bold predictions post come out Tuesday. MarmosDad's next division preview will be out on Wednesday, and then I'll be back on Friday recapping the action from the first three nights. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please leave them at the bottom of this post. Ad without further adieu, my top 200!
We're onto the last position in my rankings, the netminders. Goalies make a huge difference in fantasy hockey, but they also have the most variability from year to year. There's only a handful of goalies that we can consistently count on every season to finish in the top ten, and that floor is why they are ranked as high as they are. Because of their unpredictability, I'm very unlikely to take a goalie in the first four rounds, especially in head to head leagues. Even if your league reaches for goalies early, don't panic. Last season, I was extremely high on Kuemper and was able to get him as my G3 everywhere. He finished as the #3 goalie overall. I liked the Leafs platoon for roto leagues, and Stolarz finished as G4. Meanwhile, top ranked goalies such as Shesterkin and Saros disappointed, and they were far from the only ones. Patience is key for drafting goalies. I'm going to separate all of the goalies into tiers, so let's get to it!
We keep moving along with defensemen 21-40 for the upcoming season. In case you missed it, you can see the Top 20 here. This is a reminder that MarmosDad will have his first post of the year on Wednesday, and I will be back on Thursday. Let's get right to it!
21) John Carlson - This tier started with McAvoy and goes through Toews. This feels a bit harsh on Carlson, but I'd rather be conservative on a 35 year old trending the wrong way. As I mentioned in the Chychrun board, Carlson is at risk for losing PP1 time for the first time in over a decade. I think they'll try both of them to start again to be fair, but it's possible. I do think the goals bounce back closer to 10, but 10+45 seems close to the best case now. That's fine, but don't draft based on name recognition.
We're through the Top 100 forwards now, so it's time to mvoe to the blue line. The plan for the rest of the week is to go through the Top 20 defensemen today, and then 21-40 tomorrow. Then, MarmosDad is going to be back in the fold and will have his first post on Wednesday. I'll move onto goalies on Thursday, before what I post on Friday. It will either be the Top 200 list, or players that I like the most out of the players I've already ranked that you can target in the later rounds. Let's get to those defensemen!
We wrap up my forward rankings by going through the Top 100 today. As a reminder, there will be a separate post once my rankings are done for my favorite late round targets in 10-12 team leagues, but this post should get us comfortably through round 15 or so when you factor in goalies and defensemen. If you haven't seen the Top 60, you can check that out here. Let's get to it!
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