In a change of pace from the usual posts, I'm going to take a look at my ten bold predictions from the preseason and how they're shaping up. I will link the original post at the end of this one, but I will go through all of them in this one and look at their chances of coming through. Some have a lot of hope, and some make me look like a fool. To be fair, that's how bold predictions should go! Let's get to it!
"I really like Logan Thompson. There’s no way to bet on this, but I favor Thompson to be the #1 by the end of the season, and probably by midseason. I’m a big believer in his talent. It (drafting him) is a gamble I’d like to take." And that's me quoting me from my preseason rankings! Well, we've reached that point and then some. Thompson posted his second consecutive shutout on Thursday, beating the Sens 1-0 in OT on a Ovechkin game winner. Thompson's numbers are ludicrous. He's started 25 games and has 20 wins. His GAA is pushing towards 2.20 and his save percentage is above .920. And just like that, he's the #2 overall goalie on the season. I didn't get Thompson on every team like I hoped, but he is carrying my teams where I do since he was my third goalie drafted. The Capitals look like a powerhouse and I see no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff. Would I bet him as a top five goalie the rest of the way? Probably not. As a #1 in 12'ers? Absolutely. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that you see the first period natural hat trick, but it happened on Tuesday night. Kyle Connor scored his 24th-26th goals in the first period against the Canucks, adding a power play assist later in the game. It's been a fantastic start to the season by the Jets, and they've been led by the two Connor's. Here is the list of forwards who have provided more value than Connor to this point in the season: MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov. That's it. Obviously he losses some value in non-hits leagues, but regardless, we're looking at a season full of career highs for a player who has already had 47 goals in a season and 49 assists in a separate season. It's time for Connor to start being acknowledged for the superstar that he is. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I attribute a lot of it to randomness, but the new coach bump seems to happen over and over again. Right now, it's happening in Detroit, where Todd McLellan has the Red Wings on a seven game winning streak shortly after taking over the team. Given the ugliness of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that's vaulted Detroit right back into contention. A few guys have been thriving for Detroit, but I want to focus on Marco Kasper. The former eighth overall pick is getting his first real opportunity in a big role, playing first line minutes with Larkin and Raymond. In both games over the weekend, Kasper had a goal and an assist, with five shots between the two games. He's getting second power play unit time as well, which is enough to bump Kasper into the middling to solid streamer range for the time being. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
I was originally going to take Sidney Crosby for three points but realized I took him within the last two weeks. Then, I was going to take Bryan Rust, but thought it was too bold, so went with Matchbox Twenty. Of course Thomas had two points (more on him later), but the other two both had three points. The top line for Pitt was fantastic, with Crosby and Rust each having a goal and two assists in the 5-3 win over the Oilers. Their plus-minuses are quite ugly, but Crosby and Rust have been fantastic for fantasy purposes. Rust doesn't get the credit he deserves for playing like a star. Crosby moved into 9th on the all-time points list and is starting to make a case for being on the hockey Mount Rushmore. He's probably just outside it, but regardless, we can never take Crosby for granted. Both should be top 50 players for the rest of the season, with Crosby having a good chance to get inside the top 25. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that a player scores four points in a game. It's even less often that it happens in a losing effort. On Monday, J.T. Miller scored two goals and two assists with three shots, only for the Canucks to lose to the red hot Canadiens 5-4 in overtime. The ongoing speculation around Miller and Pettersson is rampant, and you have to think it's taking a toll on both of them. Reports are that the Rangers were interested in getting him back, but it never reached the point where Zibanejad was asked to waive his no trade because the Canucks didn't want to make a move around those two. At the end of the day, it hasn't been Miller's best season, but he's sitting at a point per game. That shows how high his floor is, despite his shot rate really dropping. Perhaps we see a surge from him now that Quinn Hughes (2A, SOG) is back as well. I was asked about Miller in the comments recently, and I didn't think perception was that Miller's value is down quite a bit. I'd certainly lean towards the buy low side than trading to move Miller if I owned him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
On New Year's Eve, I watched the Leafs - Islanders game in entirety. In the midst of a rough stretch, Matthew Knies stood out. Despite staying off the scoresheet, he was buzzing throughout the game, putting five shots on net in over 20 minutes of ice time. After being a passive shooter for almost two months, Knies was gunning regularly, which was encouraging. It felt like a big game was on the horizon, but we didn't get a big game. We got a massive game. Knies had one of the games of the season so far, scoring a hat trick against the Bruins. That's not all though. Knies also had two assists, six shots on goal, two penalty minutes, and had a +6 rating in the 6-4 win. Wow. He followed that up with another goal against the Flyers on Sunday. The return of Matthews can only help Knies. He's locked into a large role at even strength, and while he's not on PP1, Knies has played his way onto the fringe of 12'ers. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
If you didn’t see the list of players that I’m buying for the second half, you can check that out here. Let’s get right into my list of ten players that I’m selling! Please, blog, may I have some more?
Frustratingly, I'm still a bit under the weather after ten days, but today, we persevere. I'm going to look at ten different players that I'm buying for the second half of the season. Later in the week, I'm going to look at players that I'm selling. I hope that everyone had a Merry Christmas and had some time off to relax with your families. Let's get to it!
1) MacKenzie Blackwood - How is he still available in over 50% of leagues? In five starts with the Avalanche, Blackwood has four wins with a 1.82/.940. He's already been rewarded with a five year contract extension. We've seen Georgiev go on long tears with the Avalanche, and Blackwood has more talent than Georgiev does. The Avalanche are finally getting healthy, giving them the core of a good defensive team to go with all of their offense. Blackwood is a slam dunk top ten goalie for me the rest of the season. If you didn't grab him right away as I suggested, hopefully you're in a league where he's still on the waiver wire. Blackwood is must own everywhere.
Hey guys, it's been since last Wednesday that I had a post, which as you know is far from the norm. I flew home on Friday and I started to feel sick on my first flight. By the time I got on my connecting flight, I was feeling pretty rough. By the time I got home, I felt horrible. These last two days have been the worst I've felt in a long time. I didn't want to go without posting again, so I'm going to make this quick.
It was a slow start for Jake Guentzel in Tampa Bay, but that is clearly a thing of the past. Guentzel scored a goal and an assist with five shots in the 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets, extending his goal scoring streak to seven games. This game brings Guentzel up to 18 goals and 15 assists in 28 games, with the shot rate creeping back up towards three per game. I was extremely bullish on Guentzel in Tampa Bay, ranking him 12th overall. He hasn't quite been to that level, but that's what I'm expecting for the rest of the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's about that time to update my hold/stream list.
"Every 4-6 weeks during the season, I change things up and post a list of fantasy relevant players. I look at things from the perspective of a 12 player league, and put players into three categories. First, there are holds, who are players that should be on 100% of rosters. Next, there are players on the fringe, who you can make a case for holding depending on team needs, or at the least, they’re the best of the best for streaming. Lastly, there are streamers, who are worth using, but not worth holding. I will list streamers in order of preference (generally, I only want to stream forwards, not defensemen. Also, goalies will be last regardless of preference just to separate them). Assume that I am holding every #1 goalie unless otherwise noted, but I will mention the backups I want to use. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please let me know below. Be on the lookout for Evan’s post on Monday as well." And that's me copying and pasting me stealing what Grey does! And with that, let's get to it!
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