Somehow, the season starts tomorrow already! I’ve gone through all of my rankings, and I hope that your drafts went well. As is tradition in these parts, my last post before the season starts is about ten bold predictions that I have for this season. They’re almost always fantasy focused, and again, these are meant to be bold. I’m not talking about something that is 50/50 to happen, or even remotely close. I’m talking bold enough that if I hit three of these, I’ll be very happy. Last season, I had some incredible whiffs, such as top 15 defenseman Morgan Rielly, but also hit on Jet Greaves being a top twelve goalie, and Caufield scoring 45+ goals. I thought about including Greaves again, because why is he outside the top 20 goalies again? He was G7 last year! I’ll go with ten new ones though. Here’s to hoping the misses are at least somewhat close, and we hit a few of these. And without further adieu, my ten bold predictions!
1) Shea Theodore is a top twelve defenseman. His ADP across the major sites is currently D31. Conceptually, this is a pretty easy case, but he was a long away from it last season. In the two seasons before last year, Theodore’s points per game were pretty close to being good enough. Last season, his power play points went in the toilet because Vegas ran five forwards for a large part of the season. Ryan Craig, the new Golden Knights coach, has had Theodore on PP1 throughout camp. If he sticks there, that should get him back up to where he was. Now add in Marner on the team now compared to 2-3 seasons ago, and there’s another boost. Honestly, my main concern is health, as Theodore has missed 12+ games for four straight seasons. I fully expect a 65+ point pace, and you can easily draft him as your third, if not fourth defenseman.
2) Mason Marchment sets a career high in both goals and assists. That means he needs 23+ goals and 32+ assists. I was prepared to make a bolder prediction, but this feels bold enough considering that he’s on the outside looking in for PP1 in San Jose, and I assume Toffoli and Misa are both ahead of him in the pecking order. That said, he’s the perfect fit with Celebrini and Smith. Marchment is an excellent play driver, and he doesn’t need the puck to be successful. Should he have received that contract? Probably not for seven years, but we don’t care about that for fantasy. I’m expecting high 20s in goals, if not 30, and there’s a good chance he stumbles into 35 assists. He’s one of my favorite late round picks.
3) Devon Levi takes his early opportunity and runs with it, finishing as a top 20 goalie despite being ranked outside of the top 50 goalies. This case boils down to three things. One, I don’t expect Andersen to stay healthy long enough to be a factor, and even if he is, Edmonton will be more focused about keeping healthy. Two, Jarry is horrific. There’s no way a team in an all-in season is going to be riding Jarry. Three, and it’s mentioned in two, is that I expect Edmonton to be all in on this regular season. Babcock is the kind of coach to push them more over the 84 games instead of focusing on the playoffs. Could this blow up in my face? Absolutely, but the odds are that you’ll be able to take Levi with your last pick. Having paid close attention to him in Rochester, he hasn’t been great in the minors, but he’s a highly regarded prospect with pedigree at every lower level. I’ll roll the dice here.
4) Quinton Byfield smashes his previous career high of 55 points, putting up 70+. I thought about predicting career highs for Adrian Kempe, but that’s a very high bar to clear. The case is largely the same for Byfield. Byfield gets to play with Panarin and get PP1 time with one of the best playmakers in the league. If it doesn’t happen this season, it’s just never going to happen. We’re talking a 20 minute per game role with a coach that generally gets incredible results in his first season with a new team. He’s also in a division with three horrific teams and their California counterparts are also very weak defensively. Perhaps I’ll get burned again, but I love the situation.
5) J.J. Peterka is a top 75 player despite his ADP being 234rd overall. I can’t wrap my head around this. Yes, last season in Utah was horriflc. He’s a 24 year old who is going to play with one of the ten best players in the league and whose team just gave up two first round picks to get him, meaning that they’re fully committed to giving him a chance. It was only two seasons ago that Peterka had 27+41 with the Sabres. Why can’t he beat that on Boston playing on PP1 and L1 with Pasta? Yes, Peterka is horrific defensively, but Boston doesn’t have the depth that Utah does. This is his chance to get his career back on track, and I’m fully buying it.
6) Scott Wedgewood finishes outside of the top 20 goalies. Time for a negative prediction, and this one kind of pains me. Wedgewood finishing as the #1 goalie last season was nothing short of incredible. Now, his consensus rank is a top five goalie. To be blunt, I’m not buying it. One, Colorado won’t be as good as last season. They’ll still be a great team, but not lap the league good. Two, as evidenced by my rankings, I think Blackwood gets back to being first choice. Last season, Blackwood as the 1B played 36 games (he did miss the beginning of the season to be fair). That’s about what I expect from Wedgewood, and odds are he plays a bit worse. I still like him plenty if you have him as a keeper, but I can’t see him getting the volume to come anywhere near his current cost.
7) Ivan Demidov leads the Canadiens in points. Alright, this one is scorching. The only reason I don’t have Demidov very high in my rankings is that his shot rate is a concern. For this prediction, it doesn’t matter. I love that Slafkovsky is playing on the opposite wing to open the season, and I’m just a huge believer in his talent. Sixty-two points as a 19/20 year old rookie playing only 15:30 per game is insane. I don’t think St. Louis is going to be able to keep him under 18 minutes per game this year. Add in natural growth, and I think Demidov pushes 85-90 points. That also makes this a slight bet against Suzuki, Caufield, and Hutson, but their line is due for a bit of regression.
8) Florida doesn’t finish in the top three in the Atlantic. The betting market has the Panthers as a massive favorite to be in the top three. I obviously see the case, and buy them as a Cup contender if things click. There’s a few reasons why I’m going with this one. One, it’s a brutal division. Tampa, Montreal, and Buffalo could easily be the top three again, and Toronto plus Montreal are a threat. Two, Florida hasn’t prioritized the regular season in quite a while. Three, Markstrom and Schmid could be absoultely horrific. If anything, this will be a fun one to root for.
9) The Rangers make the playoffs. I don’t entirely believe this one, but the Rangers projected to be 14th in the betting market is wild to me. Igor can be the best goalie in the league, and their top four on the blue line is fantastic. The other thing going in their favor is Drury keeps pushing chips in. I definitely don’t think it’s the best thing for the organization to try and make the playoffs now, but that’s the path they’ve taken. Carolina and Washington are a class above them, but I don’t see a gap between the Rangers and everyone else in the Metro. I was going to predict Columbus originally, but they’ve been steamed in the betting market quite hard.
10) Nobody on Seattle, Vancouver, or Calgary is a top 100 player. On one hand, this doesn’t seem that bold. On the other, it’s extremely difficult for three teams to not have a top 100 player. Wolf could easily crack this. Pettersson has been a top 20 player before. McCann has easily been in the top 100. Montour and Dunn have both been. There are a lot of candidates here, but I hate all of these teams for fantasy. My favorite player at their draft value is McMann, and he might not get 20 assists. I could make a pretty compelling case that these are the three worst teams in the league, and I want very little to do with anyone involved.
That’s all for now guys. MarmosDad will be back on Wednesday, while I will have my first daily notes of the season on Friday! As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
