My thoughts over the years on goaltending haven’t changed, so I’m going to use a similar introduction that I’ve used in the past.
We’re onto the last position in my rankings, the netminders. Goalies make a huge difference in fantasy hockey, but they also have the most variability from year to year. There’s only a handful of goalies that we can consistently count on every season to finish in the top ten, and that floor is why they are ranked as high as they are. Because of their unpredictability, I’m very unlikely to take a goalie in the first four rounds, especially in head to head leagues. Even if your league reaches for goalies early, don’t panic. Last season, I was extremely high on Greaves and was able to get him as my G3 everywhere. He finished as the #7 goalie overall. I had Blackwood as G5 and with his early injury, suggested partnering him with Wedgewood, who hilariously ended up as the #1 goalie. Meanwhile, top ranked goalies such as Hellebuyck and Bobrovsky massively disappointed, and they were far from the only ones. Patience is key for drafting goalies. I’m going to separate all of the goalies into tiers, so let’s get to it!
Tier One: Superstars
1) Logan Thompson
2) Andrei Vasilevskiy
3) Igor Shesterkin
4) Connor Hellebuyck
5) Jesper Wallstedt
I covered Thompson in the Top 20 overall, but as evidenced by him being #1, I’m all in. We have a ton of history with Vasilevskiy, and he bounced back in a big way last season to be the #2 overall goalie. Don’t think I have to do much explaining about putting him here. This may be a few spots higher than most have Igor, but he was the #4 goalie last season despite the team being a dumpster fire. I actually like what the Rangers did to help the team defensively, finally giving them a strong second pair. I’ll bet on Igor’s talent prevailing.
Obviously the Hellebuyck situation is a mess, and the more time goes on, Hellebuyck needs to fall down the rankings. But like Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin, if Hellebuyck is playing, I don’t really need to explain why he’s here. Wallstedt is the bold call of this group, but Gustavsson missing at least the first month of the season opens the door for a monster year. Wallstedt posted a .916 save percentage last season, and if he plays regularly, he’s going to win at a better rate than 18 in 33. He’s one of two guys in the top ten that I’m sticking my neck out for.
Tier Two: Likely #1’s in 12’ers
6) Jake Oettinger
7) Jet Greaves
8) MacKenzie Blackwood
9) Ilya Sorokin
10) Jeremy Swayman
You could argue Oettinger at the bottom of the top tier, and I wouldn’t fight with you. He just seems to settle in this range every season, and that carries plenty of value. He did only have an .899 last season, but I think that gets back to his usual level. I’ve been a big fan of Greaves the last few seasons, and that continues this season. He grades out outstanding by the basic numbers and the analytics, and I think Columbus has a reasonable chance to make the playoffs if they start okay and shut out the outside noise. I’m all in on Blackwood and thinks he ends up being the #1, not Wedgewood. Last season, Wedgewood started well with Blackwood out and never hit a wall, but the plan all along was Blackwood to be the #1. It will be 1A and 1B, but I expect Blackwood to be on the good side of that platoon, and getting a piece of Colorado goalies is obviously a great thing.
Sorokin and Swayman are in the same boat. Both are elite goaltenders over large samples, and both are on teams that I don’t expect to give them a good rate. Their excellent volume will be what drives their value the most.
Tier Three: Could be a #1, could be a #2
11) Jakub Dobes
12) Linus Ullmark
13) Scott Wedgewood
14) Joel Hofer
15) Brandon Bussi
16) Karel Vejmelka
17) Dan Vladar
18) Lukas Dostal
Dobes comes in as the clear #1 in Montreal now, which is a great team to have in front of you. He graded out as a top ten goalie last season, so my main concern is that he had only a .901 save percentage despite playing excellently. Fowler is also lurking if Dobes gets off to a slow start. The wins should be very good, and I don’t see a ton of downside, which puts him at the top of this group. Ullmark has clear control of the Ottawa crease. Ottawa is quietly great defensively, and I’m betting on Ullmark playing better than he did last season. Even a .900 sv% would have Ullmark below a 2.50 GAA with how strong Ottawa is defensively. Wedgewood won’t have the volume of this group, but those starts will be incredible. He’s clearly more valuable in roto, but regardless, he was the #1 goalie last season despite starting only 43 games. I’m banking in some regression, but he can’t fall too far.
Hofer was quietly a top ten goalie last season. The Blues made a lot of moves in an attempt to not bottom out, and there is a fair amount of upside in their top six, even if I’ve soured on McTavish. I see him similarly to Sorokin and Swayman, but without the track record and more of a threat from the backup, even if Binnington looks cooked. I don’t really know what to do with Bussi. Maybe I’m overestimating how much of a threat Kochetkov is, but his track record is better than Bussi’s. The upside for Bussi puts him here, largely because of how good Carolina is. There’s just not much downside in a Carolina goalie as long as they stay healthy. Vejmelka’s numbers last year weren’t great, but he was still a top 15 goalie because of the volume. They made a big bet on Cossa, but I don’t see him really hurting Vejmelka this season. Sure, he’ll probably take a few starts from Vejmelka, but that could help him stay fresh.
Vladar was the shock of last season, putting up a borderline top five season. I have him ranked here because Tocchet’s system should give him a decent floor. The problem is that he wasn’t particularly good for years, and Woll could certainly cut into his workload more than Ersson did. I’m pretty sour on Anaheim after this offseason. I am a huge believer in Dostal as a goalie, but I’m skeptical that it’s shown in his numbers this season. It certainly wasn’t last season outside of the quality wins.
Tier Four: Could be a #1, could be waiver fodder
19) Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
20) Jacob Markstrom
21) Jake Allen
22) Spencer Knight
23) Carter Hart
24) Sergei Bobrovsky
25) Yaroslav Askarov
26) Juuse Saros
27) Dustin Wolf
There’s been so much discussion about UPL being in a Hellebuyck trade, or being flipped elsewhere if he has Winnipeg on his no trade list, which appears to be the case. The main concern is he’s moved to a bad landing spot which tanks his value. As of now, I’m planning on him being in Buffalo, where he was a top 15 goalie last season in GSAA. His actual numbers were fantastic as well with a 2.52/.910. The Sabres are very well rounded defensively, and if there wasn’t concern about him being traded away, I’d have UPL up a tier. Markstrom is the ultimate lotto ticket this season. If he plays well and Florida reaches their upside, he could be a top ten goalie. He could also play like he did last season and tank your season. If I knew Allen could stay healthy and get volume, I’d be more bullish on him. His track record in recent seasons has been pretty rough. Knight is fantastic, but I expect Chicago to still be awful, hurting his wins and GAA. Hart should get wins, but he was awful last season. Even a .900 sv% would make him an easy #2, but that’s far from a given.
Bob is in a similar spot as the last few seasons, except the ceiling isn’t as high being on Toronto instead of Florida. It can’t really get worse than last season though. The Sharks feel a season away, and Askarov was horrible last season. He’s almost universally seen as an elite goaltending prospect, and he will get plenty of games against horrible teams in the Pacific. Very high risk to go with a medium reward. Saros has trended in the wrong direction for years, and the Predators continue to be in limbo. He has more value in H2H leagues and other leagues where volume helps. I really like Wolf as a player, but Calgary could be horrific. Wolf was a fine #3 last season despite the team, and I figure he stays around that level. I suppose it’s not impossible he puts up some big numbers, but even in a best case scenario, I don’t see it translating to wins.
Tier Five: Volume Concerns / Roto Plays
28) Pyotr Kochetkov
29) Darcy Kuemper
30) Anton Forsberg
31) Filip Gustavsson
32) Frederik Andersen
33) Alex Lyon
34) Alex Nedeljkovic
35) Joseph Woll
36) Anthony Stolarz
In 23-24, Kochetkov looked like he was destined for fantasy superstardom. He followed that up with a bad season and a season lost due to injury. You can make a case that Kochetkov breaks out of this tier and becomes a fantasy monster. He could also split with Bussi and do well, but in limited games. He could also get injured again. There’s huge variance here. It feels a bit cheap putting the two Kings goalies together, but they’re hard to separate. The division is so bad that they’re both viable roto options. Forsberg was better last season, but Kuemper is likely to be the 1A. Gustavsson’s injury to open the season puts him here. Otherwise, he’d be up a tier.
Who the hell knows what you’re going to get from Andersen? He’s already missing camp, but I do think Edmonton is going to take the regular season more seriously under Babcock. He could be a complete torch of a pick, but he could be a very valuable 30ish games. Lyon was fantastic last season, and should continue to split with UPL. They’re a good duo to target in roto, although a trade is always possible, plus Ellis will take the occasional game. There’s a chance that Ned gets a full split with Askarov, or even becomes the 1A. He was better than Askarov last season, and the Sharks have aspirations to break their playoff drought this season. He’s a sneaky deep league pick. Woll goes to Philly, who has a great defensive system. Vladar also doesn’t have a track record, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Woll work his way into a split for as long as he can stay healthy. Stolarz has always been good as a backup, and who knows, maybe Bob is completely washed and he gets plenty of looks in Toronto again.
Tier Six: Maybe Something, Likely Nothing
37) John Gibson
38) Tristan Jarry
39) Joey Daccord
40) Sergei Murashov
41) Stuart Skinner
42) Akira Schmid
43) Devon Levi
44) Philipp Grubauer
45) Jordan Binnington
Gibson was solid last season, but Detroit has a good chance to be towards the bottom of the division. I don’t like what they’re doing, and it’s likely to impact Gibson. Jarry is likely to stay horrible, but there’s always a chance that Edmonton carries him. Daccord was good in the past, but I don’t like Seattle, and Grubauer was better than him last season. I saw Murashov play a couple times in Wheeling, and while that’s the ECHL, you could tell he was far too talented for that level. I think the Pens give him a chance, and while I don’t like it for this season, I do in the long term. Skinner could be the backup to Hellebuyck, or be the #1 in Winnipeg. Either way, similar to Gibson, I don’t like the direction of the team. That said, Skinner has been better overall than he gets credit for. Schmid is the backup in Florida, and he hasn’t been good in the NHL so far. That said, it has to be acknowledged that there’s a chance Markstrom flops, and Schmid ends up being a G2 because of the wins. Levi will get to be in Edmonton to start with Andersen injured. Perhaps he finds a groove in the NHL and never looks back? Call me skeptical. It looks like the Blues have finally turned the page on Binnington to Hofer, but goalies have been so weird in St. Louis for years that anything is possible.
Tier Seven: No Thanks
46) Thatcher Demko
47) Kevin Lankinen
48) Arturs Silovs
I have zero interest in Vancouver, as I don’t see a path for them to avoid being a bottom five team, and likely to be worse than that. Silovs has been horrific for years, and Pittsburgh is due for regression. If you’re desperate, I’d rather gamble on Murashov.
