We continue through my forward rankings today with players ranked 41-60. If you missed the Top 40, you can check that out here. MarmosDad will be back in the middle of the week, and I will have 61-80 later in the week. If you have any comments, suggestions, or questions, let me know in the comments section below. Let’s get to it!
41) Andrei Svechnikov – Svechnikov had such a horrible start to last season that he was a borderline drop in November. Through twelve games, he had only three points and the shot rate was poor by his standards. From that point on, Svechnikov played like the superstar people expected when he went second overall, finishing the season with 29+38 in his last 67 games with an elite shot rate. Given his big contributions in hits and PIM, Svechnikov should be a plus in all categories. I’m buying his growth.
42) Sebastian Aho – For eight straight seasons, Aho has been right around a point per game. He also has a good track record of staying healthy. There are more exciting picks, but you know what you’re getting with Aho, and it’s very good.
43) Aleksander Barkov – This might be a bit bullish on Barkov after missing an entire season, but he already was looking good in the World Championships for Finland. Now, Florida has an even deeper top six, and Barkov has been above a point per game for five straight seasons. The shot rate has trended down, but a point per game is a point per game.
44) Dylan Larkin – We’re a bit in limbo with Larkin since we don’t know where he’s going to be playing. I think Larkin staying would be best for his fantasy value since he won’t be a first line center anywhere else, but regardless, he should settle in this range. Larkin has scored 30+ goals in five straight seasons and he has the shot rate that comes with it. We’re in a range of my rankings where we have a lot of proven players that have very high floors.
45) Travis Konecny – I do have some concern about Konecny’s shot rate continuing to trend downwards. However, Philly finally has some offensive talent around him and he hits all of the categories well. I may end up dropping him slightly, but Konecny comes in at 45 because he fits into all team builds.
46) Jesper Bratt – Like most of the Devils, Bratt took a step back last season, but still finished with 71 points. He played all 82 games once again, and his dropoff came directly from losing power play points. I think we see a bounce back to some extent, especially since they haven’t traded Dougie yet, and for now, all the Devils are healthy. I’ve long been a big fan of Bratt so I’m going to continue to buy.
47) Alex Ovechkin – Until I see Ovechkin get less than 30 goals or three shots per game, I’m going to assume that he does it. Washington added some serious firepower this summer, so it should be even easier for Carberry to spoonfeed Ovechkin very easy minutes. There’s a good chance that we see Washington’s power play bounce back as well. He’s far from perfect at this point in his career, but I’ll gladly take the soon-to-be 41 year old one last time.
48) Lucas Raymond – Raymond pretty much repeated his previous season coming in just under a point per game. Again, it’s not the most exciting, but 25+50 can’t be ignored for too long. A Larkin trade could impact Raymond negatively depending on the return, but I think he’ll be fine regardless.
49) Mathew Barzal – Barzal quietly put up 72 points last season on a struggling Islanders team. I don’t love the shot rate going down, but I could see an improvement in the Islanders power play in Schaefer’s second season. Barzal is another guy I could see moving down as his stat profile isn’t what I usually target, but this is already quite a bit lower than where Barzal finished on player raters last season.
50) Logan Cooley – Cooley shot an unsustainable shooting percentage last season, but 24 goals in 54 games can’t be ignored. The assists dropped significantly, but we saw in 24/25 that he’s capable of putting up 40+ assists. I’m a huge believer in the talent, and I think that Cooley and Guenther can be one of the deadliest second line combos in the league. We’ll need the shot rate to go back up to 24/25 levels, but I wouldn’t be surprised at a 30+40 season, and there’s even upside from there.
51) Nico Hischier – I could copy and past the Bratt blurb and it would almost work. I’m willing to give these guys a pass for last season, so I expect Hischier to get back into the 35 goal range instead of 28. He’s fairly boring, but Hischier’s value is in his safety as a top 75ish player.
52) Robert Thomas – Thomas suffered an injury that limited him to 64 games last season, but he had his third straight point per game season. He easily had thet best goal rate of his career despite his shot rate going down to truly ugly territory. If Thomas can get back to two shots per game, he will pay off this ranking with relative ease. The concern is he stays in the 1.5 per game range, but he could even pay that off if he plays at a 90+ point pace like in 24/25.
53) Ivan Demidov – I really want to rank Demidov higher than this. He had 62 points as a rookie despite averaging only 15:30 per game. The offensive talent is through the roof, and it’s very easily to see Demidov becoming a point per game player starting this season. My concern is two fold. One, the Canadiens didn’t add a 2C like everyone expected. Demidov has fairly weak linemates unless Montreal breaks up their top line, which I doubt. Two, we don’t know where the shot rate is going to go. Obviously 1.5 per game isn’t going to cut it, but we’ve seen a lot of guys make big jumps in year two. My expectation is Demidov gets the shots up to the 2-2.5 range and 70ish points, which will pay this off. Then, in 27-28, we see the breakout to where he becomes a top 20 player for a decade.
54) Beckett Sennecke – Sennecke’s rookie season was fantastic, putting up 23+37 with an average shot rate and good PIM/ hits. We usually see guys who shoot that much as a rookie push it further in year two, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets to around three per game already. On top of natural growth, there’s plenty of opportunity for Sennecke to put up more power play points as well. I’ll bet on another top five pick here.
55) Nikolaj Ehlers – The next five guys all provide a very good floor with varying degrees of upside. Loyal Razzballers know how much I always loved Ehlers as a player, so it was great to see him put up a career high in points and win the Cup despite a slow start in Carolina. The minutes won’t be crazy because of Brind’Amour, but as long as he stays on the top power play, I’m expecting a repeat of last season’s 71 points with solid shots.
56) Nick Schmaltz – Schmaltz had the best season of his career, scoring 33 goals and 41 assists, plus a career high in shots. He found great chemistry with Keller, and Utah deepened its lineup with Trocheck and Lee arriving. Despite the career high in points, Schmaltz’ PPP actually went down. Despite being the fifth wheel, Schmaltz should bounce back there. I’m quite bullish on Utah, so I’ll gladly take another piece of their team.
57) Tom Wilson – Wilson’s value swings drastically depending on your league format. In banger leagues, this is obviously far too low. If your league is points-focused, this is too high. Wilson managed a second consecutive 30 goal season with monster hits and penalty minutes. There’s more downside here than with everyone else in this post, but the secondary contributions will prevent Wilson from being a bust in worst case scenarios. It’s one of the most bizarre careers with Wilson making a huge jump once he turned 30, but for now, I’m going to believe it.
58) Alex Tuch – Tuch received a massive payday to go to Washington, adding to the incredible depth of their forward group. I do have some concern that Tuch’s playdriving fell off last season in Buffalo, but he still put up 33+33 with solid shots. He probably won’t be PP1 in Washington, but he wasn’t in Buffalo anyways. He’s a bit riskier, but Tuch was also a top 40 forward last season, so this ranking bakes that in.
59) Mark Stone – Last season was arguably the best of Stone’s career, putting up 28+45 in only 60 games. And there in lies the rub. In the past five seasons, the most games that Stone has played in 66, and last season’s 60 was the second most. On a per-game basis, Stone is going to be incredible, but how many games are we getting from him? I’m much more comfortbale drafting Stone in roto leagues where I can put him on IR / on my bench when he’s day to day and I can easily plug someone else in his spot.
60) Will Smith – Smith made a nice jump in his sophomore season, putting up 24+35 in 69 games. He’s locked onto a line with Celebrini, and Smith is no slouch himself as a former top five pick. It’s very easy to project Smith making another jump to stardom this season. You can easily put a different young player here like Fantilli or even Martone, but I feel like Smith is the safest of the bunch getting to play with a superstar. Give me some stock in Will Smith Hockey.
