We’re through the Top 100 forwards now, so it’s time to mvoe to the blue line. The plan for the rest of the week is to go through the Top 20 defensemen today, and then 21-40 tomorrow. Then, MarmosDad is going to be back in the fold and will have his first post on Wednesday. I’ll move onto goalies on Thursday, before whatever I post on Friday. It will either be the Top 200 list, or players that I like the most out of the players I’ve already ranked that you can target in the later rounds. Feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Let’s get to those defensemen!
1) Cale Makar
2) Quinn Hughes
3) Rasmus Dahlin
4) Zach Werenski – The top four guys made my Top 20 overall. You can read about them all in full detail here.
5) Evan Bouchard – Bouchard completes the tier from Hughes on down and will come in just outside the Top 20 overall. Even with a step back from his monster 81 point season, Bouchard was the #3 overall defenseman last season. His 68 points were 5th best in the league amongst defensemen, with the four ahead of him in these rankings ahead in points last season. Bouchard’s step back in PPP still saw him have 26, an elite amount. The shot rate is elite for any position and was third best last season behind Werenski and Makar. His floor is a bottom end #1 in fantasy and his ceiling is of the #1 overall defenseman. It’s easy to envision Bouchard having a 20+60 season with 250 shots and 35 PPP.
6) Victor Hedman – This is kind of an outrageous claim, and if I get to a bold predictions post, something dealing with this could be in there, but if the top 5 defensemen stay healthy, I would be very surprised if anyone else breaks into the Top 5. That’s not to say I don’t like any of these guys or that their ceilings are low, but those five feel like the clear class of the league right now for fantasy. Look, we know what we’re getting from Hedman at this point. It’s going to be good across the board, especially in points, specifically PPP. There’s not much else to say about Hedman anymore: he’s a clear #1D in all formats.
7) Thomas Harley – Harley was a fringe top 10 defenseman last season, but I think we see another small step forward. He hasn’t had the assists that these other guys have, but he’s a great bet for 15+ goals. Harley just turned 24 years old, and he only played 23:23 per game last season, giving him some upside just by opportunity. The main thing here is that the top power play unit looks to be all Harley’s this year. Additionally, the top PP unit should get more ice time than in the past with DeBoer. That change should be enough to get Harley to around 60 points, which would him a clear #1 with his secondary contributions. I’ll add that in hits league, he does need to be dropped down a bit.
8) Josh Morrissey – It was the third straight season that Morrissey was a top ten defenseman, and I see no reason to expect a change. He’s stayed extremely healthy throughout his career, he’s a lock for 10-15 goals, and a good bet for 50+ assists. Morrissey’s shot rate did drop a bit last season to average for a defenseman, which isn’t a huge deal, but it’s marginal enough that I put Hedman and Harley ahead of him.
9) Adam Fox – I’ve never been a huge for fantasy, especially as his shot rate continues to drop a bit. However, I do think Fox’s assumed demise is premature. He’s had 60+ points for four straight seasons, and it’s hard to believe that the Rangers don’t bounce back to some extent this season. Fox has always been an even strength monster, and last season’s 18 PPP is an absolute worst case scenario. His ceiling is capped because of the shot rate, but Fox should safely be a bottom end #1 in 12’ers.
10) Roman Josi – I debated putting Josi 7th because his ceiling in the past has been the #1 overall defenseman. I ended up sliding him here because last season was so bad but he’s also 35 years old now. He was still pushing three shots per game which feels like the floor, and gives him a huge value gain over most defensemen. Josi has traditionally been very good at even strength, but the problem last year was that Nashville goalies couldn’t make a save with him on the ice. I’ll bet on a bounce back there. I think the days of Josi being Norris caliber are gone, but he’s a good bet for 15+ goals and solid assists. Add in the shot rate and I can’t drop him any lower.
11) Shea Theodore – Theodore wasn’t trending this way in the past, but he’s become a very assist heavy fantasy player. Assists ain’t got no face! Assists are the easiest thing to get, but not at this level. Theodore had 50 assists in 67 games last season, with a solid 19 PPP. The problem is that he fell below two shots per game, a far cry from when he used to average three per game. He’s also missed a chunk of time in each of the last three seasons. Theodore is the start of this tier because if he stays healthy, I could see 70 points with Marner’s addition to the PP. However, you could drop him down to 15th because of the injury risk and it’s perfectly reasonable.
12) Jakob Chychrun – Safe to say Chychrun loved life in Washington, finishing as the #9 defenseman last season. He set a career high with 20 goals, putting up good numbers across the board, including plus-minus for the first time. Chychrun won’t shoot 11.2% again, but I think the PPP and assists have a small uptick. He didn’t start last season on PP1, but he moved onto it in the middle of the season in a shooting role. That can only help Chychrun’s cause. In fact, at this point, I think he’s more locked into the spot than Carlson is. Regardless, Chychrun is so good across the board that his floor lands him in this tier. It won’t be as good in points as most of the others, but the balanced stat line has plenty of value.
13) Dougie Hamilton – As the President of the Dougie fan club for the past decade, I want to put him higher than this. However, another extended injury absence last season keeps me from moving him higher. Hamilton was still close to three shots per game, with his goals dropping due to the worst shooting luck of his career. The PPP were hurt by the time J. Hughes and Hischier missed, and I still don’t see Luke Hughes taking Dougie’s spot. He’s a risk, but if he does stay healthy, Hamilton could easily have 60 points and 250 shots. That’s an easy top ten guy. Just know the injury risk and don’t pair him with other injury risks.
14) Jake Sanderson – Sanderson took a big jump last season, reaching career high with 11+46, including 30 PPP. His shot rate also jumped, but that power play surge is the main reason he falls in this range. It is a bit concerning that he wasn’t better at even strength, and I do have some concerns about Ottawa in general this season. That doesn’t outweigh the good that Sanderson provides, and he’s likely to improve at age 23. He’s a great target as a #2 in 12’ers, with the upside of being a bottom end #1.
15) Lane Hutson – The epitome of AAGNOF, Hutson piled up 60 assists on his way to the Calder Trophy. He was fantastic on the power play (remember when Matheson played PP1 over him to start the season? Good times) and he was an incredible play driver. There’s no denying that Hutson is on the way to stardom, if not superstardom. The problem is that he had only 91 shots on goal in 82 games. That is a massive, massive drain on his value. How much of a jump can we realistically expect? Hutson could have 65-70 assists and it wouldn’t shock me, but 10 goals is a very rosy projection. It really comes down to your team build and also your league format. If you don’t have shots as a category for some reason, Hutson is just outside of the top 5. That’s how big of a drain he is in shots. I’m assuming I’ll be priced out on Hutson this year.
16) Charlie McAvoy – McAvoy into the Top 40 is a bunch of guys who are very likely to be a #2, but their ceiling is that of a 2, and their floor is that of a #3 (there is one exception to that, more on him later). Last season was a disaster for McAvoy, missing extended time and only playing at a 40 point pace over 82 games. Why do I still have him in this tier? He had only 4 PPP in 50 games. That’s simply not repeating itself, especially with nobody else on the roster being a threat to his role. The shot rate approached two per game, which is a nice boost too. You could easily drop McAvoy into the 20s if you want to fade Boston, but I’m betting on McAvoy getting back to his elite level in real life, which has translated him into being a #2 in 12’ers for years.
17) MacKenzie Weegar – After Weegar’s outlier 20 goal season, he fell back to the 8 we are accustommed to. The good news is that he’s very good at everything across the board so that’s more than enough to put him in this range. If you’re in banger leagues, Weegar is a slam dunk top 10 defenseman. 192 blocks and 223 hits is insane. Even without it, he fits every single team build and is a very solid #2. Just don’t expect to be a top 10 guy if you don’t have hits or blocks.
18) Moritz Seider – I was the low man on Seider for years and I feel vindicated that he’s settled into a player who isn’t even sniffing 50 points. He’s simply not a driver of offense at even strength. Even with that, he’s now settled into this range with a very similar stat line to Weegar, but with less shots (that includes the monster hits and blocks that raise his value in banger leagues). Seider hasn’t missed a game in his four year career, and his role on the Red Wings isn’t under threat by anyon (if Gustafsson didn’t get PP1 last year, I don’t see it now). It’s boring, but safe.
19) Vince Dunn – I was pretty tempted to move Dunn up in my rankings, but there’s a bit too much uncertainty. Let’s start with the positives. He scored 11+ goals for the third straight season, his shot rate moved up to over two per game, and he was the best play driver on the team by a wide margin. We are only two years off from Dunn being a bottom end #1 in 12’ers. Now, for the bad. He’s missed at least 20 games in each of the last two seasons. The primary assist rate really dropped off last season. He also stopped hitting guys, which kind of shows his game transitioning away from being rough defensively. Now, there is some upside here in that the top PP unit could get more time with Lambert instead of an even split like with the previous two coaches. However, the Kraken top end talent might be the worst in the league, and there’s always a chance Montour (who is in this tier) takes that spot. Dunn should be a #2 or #3 if he stays healthy, but unlike the previous three guys, there’s slightly more upside.
20) Jackson LaCombe – Lacombe’s second season couldn’t have realistically gone much better. On a very bad team, he was excellent at even strength. He now has a clear PP1 spot, which he didn’t have for a large chunk of the season. The 14 goals is unlikely to repeat itself barring a jump in shot rate (over 10% shooting for a defenseman is very rare), but Lacombe did approach two per game after being well below one per game as a rookie. I do think the arrival of Kreider will help the Anaheim power play, as will the growth of all the young players on the roster, LaCombe included. The coaching change, as ugly as it is, could also help Anaheim. LaCombe has a lot of variance, unlike the rest of this tier. This ranking is more of a reflection that I want to take that gamble than me believing LaCombe actually should be 20th, similar to my Michkov 20th overall ranking. There are a few other guys in the conversation, but he’s the defenseman I like the most to take a leap into #2 territory. If Anaheim takes a jump, 55-60 points is very doable.
