We’re through my Top 20 overall and now it’s time to focus on specific position groups. I’m starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it’s a head to head league, I’m never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there’s no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it’s great to have Igor, but you’re going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I’d end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I’m a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I’m not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros’ numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you’re not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let’s look at the cream of the crop!
Tier One: As Safe As A Goalie Can Be
1) Igor Shesterkin – Covered in the Top 20 overall here.
2) Connor Hellebuyck – I contemplated dropping Hellebuyck a spot or two, but the more I looked at it, the stronger I felt he was #2. Bowness is gone which isn’t ideal in terms of the system being played in front of him, but there’s a few things working in Hellebuyck’s favor. One, he always has one of the biggest workloads in the league. Two, he’s stayed remarkably healthy throughout his career. Three, the consistency is top notch. Hellebuyck has had a .910 sv% or better for seven straight seasons, four of which were .920+. That’s truly elite territory four times. Now, the GAA is a bit higher risk depending on how Arniel sets up the team, but it’s not enough to drag Hellebuyck down.
3) Jake Oettinger – Despite a disappointing season from a fantasy perspective in 23-24, he was still a borderline #1 in 12’ers. The big reason that he’s still this high for me is that the wins are going to be elite no matter what. Dallas is clearly one of the best teams in the league, even though I didn’t love the veteran defensemen they added to the bottom of their roster. Oettinger is still only 25 years old, a point where goalies are generally just starting to get into the league. Assuming health, it’s hard to imagine a worse season than last year, so that floor combined with #1 overall ceiling puts him in tier one.
4) Jeremy Swayman – If you’re on the Swayman hype train, you can easily justify putting him second. On a per-game basis, Swayman can be as good as anybody. It’s easy to project that to maintain over a bigger sample with Ullmark gone, but I have a few things holding me back from going completely all in. Firstly, Swayman still doesn’t have a contract done. It should get settled sooner than later, but it’s still not ideal. A bigger issue is that we haven’t seen him play more than 44 games in a season yet, or Montgomery push a goalie in the regular season. Are we sure that Korpisalo isn’t going to get 27ish games? I kind of think he is. The uncertainty around Swayman’s volume and ability to hold up with a bigger workload keeps him here, but don’t get me wrong, there’s a reason why I have him in tier one.
5) Sergei Bobrovsky – The #2 overall goalie last season behind Hellebuyck, Bob was excellent from the get-go and never slowed down through the Panthers winning the Cup. The wins will surely be elite and the GAA should as well. The save percentage is a little more questionable, but the real reason Bob is at the bottom of this tier is that we’ve seen him completely fall apart out of nowhere twice. I do think there’s a chance that Knight finally can stay on the ice and get 25-30 games. Bob is the riskiest of the bunch, and there’s not much more to it than that. He has to be in tier one given how good the Panthers are.
TIER TWO: A Potential #1, But With Bigger Question Marks
6) Thatcher Demko – Demko would be in tier one if he was healthy. There is a lot of uncertainty around his knee injury with reports that are seemingly contradictory. What we do know is that Vancouver has an offer out to Lankinen, and they already signed someone for a PTO. It’s also been said that the injury can’t get worse, but he has to manage playing with it going forward. That… doesn’t sound ideal. For now, it sounds like Demko could be ready opening night three weeks from now, but who knows? For now, he slots here, but he could easily drop down significantly if we find out Demko is out to start the season.
7) Stuart Skinner – Skinner was a bottom end #1 last season, and that was with one of the worst opening months imaginable. The floor is extremely high because the wins are going to be massive. You’ll have to pair Skinner with a #2 that is better in ratios, especially in roto leagues. If the volume isn’t there for whatever reason, then he won’t be a #1. That said, I kind of have a hard time seeing Skinner outside of the top 12 just because of those wins, similar to Oettinger last season. I also don’t see Skinner jumping into the top tier because the Oilers aren’t that level of defensive team in the regular season.
8) Juuse Saros – I really wanted to get Saros into the top tier. The volume is always near the top of the league, and the Predators are clearly an improved team. The problem is that Brunette plays a very attacking style, but it leaves Saros exposed to a larger number of high danger chances. It’s a smart move given how good Saros is, but it hurts his fantasy numbers. The GAA and sv% were easily the worst of his career. I’m expecting a slight bounce back, but these aren’t your older brother’s defensive Predators.
9) Andrei Vasilevskiy – If anything, I would have Vasilevskiy a few spots lower, not higher. Last season was the worst of Vasilevskiy’s career. I want to give him a bit of a break since he missed the beginning of the season due to injury. Also, the depth for Tampa now has some guys who are very good defensively, but provide little offense. I don’t love their team, but it might actually help Vasilevskiy get his numbers back up towards what we’re accustomed to.
10) Jacob Markstrom – What New Jersey team are we going to get, and what Markstrom are we going to get? It’s hard to imagine things going worse for New Jersey this season from an injury standpoint (although L. Hughes is already out 6-8 weeks). Keefe has also proven to be a good regular season coach as well. If I had to go to one end of the spectrum or the other, I would be more inclined to completely throw last season out of the window than think it’s a harbinger for the future. If we get the good Markstrom and they play like the 22/23 Devils in front of him, we’re looking at a top five goalie.
11) Ilya Sorokin – I also kind of want to just throw last season out of the window for Sorokin. There’s no way around it; it was a complete nightmare. I can’t ignore it completely, and the Islanders roster is pretty ugly. I’m mostly just betting on the talent here more than anything else. I have no problem dropping him lower, but goalies get shaky quickly.
12) Linus Ullmark – Ottawa seems to curse goalies, but they haven’t had a goalie as good as Ullmark. For those of you that are worried about him leaving Boston, don’t forget that Ullmark was good on some brutal Buffalo teams. In some regards, Ullmark fits cleaner into the third tier because he hasn’t started 50 games in a season before, partially because of Boston’s general strategy, and partially because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. However, I definitely feel better about him than everyone else in that tier, and his floor is higher than the guys below him.
13) Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – A top ten goalie last season despite the Sabres disappointing, UPL stole the job from Levi and didn’t look back. He won more than half of his starts with a 2.57/.910. It’s hard to imagine the Sabres having a worse season than last year. All of the underlying numbers show UPL had a truly elite season. It’s simply a matter of repeating it and staying healthy. If anything, my Sabres fandom has jaded me so much that I assume something will go wrong, but rationally, UPL looks extremely promising.
14) Alexandar Georgiev – Well, what Georgiev do we get? Do we get the top five goalie from two seasons ago, or the guy who piled up wins last season despite his dreadful play? Shrug emoji. While I’m inclined to think Georgiev will bounce back and the wins provide the floor of a #2, there’s a chance that Annunen forces his way into a timeshare. It’s not like last season where Bednar didn’t have much of a choice but to play Georgiev because of Francouz’s injury. This is a contract year for Georgiev, so a lot is on the line here. He might have the widest range of realistic outcomes of anybody in the league, similar to where Bob was a couple years ago.
15) Joseph Woll – Health. That’s the million dollar question. If he can stay healthy, Woll has a good chance of being a #1 goalie for fantasy. He should get plenty of volume as Stolarz hasn’t played much either, and the Leafs should get plenty of regular season wins. Berube should provide a better defensive structure than Keefe as well, and Tanev could help a lot. His variance is one of the biggest in the entire league.
Tier Three: Potential #1, Volume Dependent
16) Adin Hill – Last season was a career high in starts for Hill. He played 35 games. If I knew he would play 55 games, Hill would be towards the top of tier two. Vegas’ defensive system is so good that the per-game numbers for Hill should be great. I just can’t assume that Hill is going to play that much. Additionally, Thompson is gone and Samsonov is in, which is a clear downgrade. Samsonov puts me off a bit on drafting both parts of the Vegas duo. I’d still target them in roto leagues if I need goalies late, but it’s not as safe. If I did end up with a guy like Saros who gets massive volume, then rolling the dice on Hill makes more sense to improve the ratios.
17) Pyotr Kochetkov
18) Frederik Andersen
I’m pairing these two together because it’s hard to separate them. Andersen’s 16 games last season were bonkers: 13 wins, 1.84 GAA and .932 sv%. He simply can’t stay healthy at this point, which leads us to Kochetkov. He only won 23 of 44 games, and the save percentage was an average .911. The goals against average was elite though, a testament to the Carolina system. Those 44 games were enough for Kochetkov to be a bottom end #1 last season. In roto leagues, I would bump both up drastically and pair the duo. They’re arguably be my primary targets in roto leagues. In head to head, I feel a lot better about Kochetkov just because he’s a better bet to stay healthy.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll have another post covering the rest of the goalies in the next day or two. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
