We’re keeping it moving with part two of my defensemen rankings today. If you didn’t read Part One, check it out here. Also, if you didn’t see Jules’ rankings, the newest Razzball writer, you can check those out here. Let’s get right into it!
Tier 4: Safety
18) Devon Toews
19) Hampus Lindholm
20) Alex Pietrangelo
21) Thomas Chabot
22) Rasmus Andersson
23) Zach Werenski
24) Noah Dobson
25) Darnell Nurse
These guys aren’t similar in their strengths and weaknesses, but in terms of total value, all of these guys are extremely safe and should be a top end #3 in their worst case scenarios, and a solid #2 if things break right. There’s not a lot of upside with Toews. Even if Makar goes down, I would expect Byram to go onto the first unit. However, he should still be good for about 50 points, average shots, and elite plus-minus. Generally, plus-minus has a lot of variance, but Toews is one of the few guys in the league that you can bank on for plus-minus. You’ll need to make up the PPP, but Toews is a great fit for every roster.
Lindholm was actually the #5 defenseman last season, largely driven by a ridiculous +49 rating. The 53 points were easily a career high. I’m a bit skeptical of a repeat, as I don’t think 17 PPP is likely again barring McAvoy missing significant time. That said, like Toews, he fits every team because he’s at least average in everything, and a value gain in a few spots.
If your league has blocks, then Pietrangelo needs a massive boost. If you’re in a standard league, then the fringe between a #2 and #3 makes sense. He tied a career high in points last season while remaining a plus in shot rate. As stated in Part One, I don’t understand why Pietrangelo is on PP1 over Theodore, but I’m not going to expect a change now. There’s some downside here entering his age 34 season, but he’s a lock to be a #3 for his overall stat line.
Given the success that the Ottawa first unit has had over the last few seasons, Chabot should be locked into that role. He’s always been a plus in PIM and shots, and he’s good with hits/blocks as well. I’d be worried in a dynasty that eventually he will usurped by Sanderson and potentially even Chychrun, but for this season, I’m fairly bullish on Chabot. Perhaps he finally won’t be a minus player as the team around him improves.
Andersson is one of the most boring fantasy players. Even in a down season for Calgary, he was the #22 overall defenseman. I really don’t have much to add because we know exactly what we’re getting.
Werenski hurts your team in PIM and hits (if you have them), but he’s a big add in shots on goal. The question is how good with the Columbus PP be, and how bad will his plus-minus be? I don’t see a scenario where it’s so bad that Werenski is a net negative, but he’s the one guy who doesn’t fit this tier cleanly. There’s a chance he could be a bottom end #1 if the Columbus PP clicks, but there’s also some downside if Werenski is dragged to a -20.
I was hoping for a step forward from Dobson, but he repeated his breakout from 21/22. He’s average to plus in every category, which is enough to get him ranked here. Dobson is only 23 so there’s a chance the breakout happens this year, but I’m skeptical given that the Islanders reverted to playing boring hockey despite the coaching change.
Nurse is elite in banger leagues, and in standard, he still carries plenty of value. Your team build needs to be correct, but if you end up having a ton of PPP early and are short on PIM and plus-minus, Nurse is the perfect add. He’s not as light on points as you would think without any PP time. Who knows, maybe with Barrie gone, Nurse can sneak some time onto PP2? Nurse is very high floor and the ceiling has some upside.
Tier 5: Injuries and Question Marks
26) Brandon Montour
27) Jakob Chychrun
28) Kris Letang
29) Tony DeAngelo
30) Morgan Rielly
31) Aaron Ekblad
Montour being the #1 fantasy defenseman last season is beyond hilarious. It’s not quite hitting the lottery, but it was completely out of nowhere. I do expect some regression, but he’s this low because he’s out for an undetermined period of time. He could be back in middle to late November, it could be around the New Year. If Montour wasn’t injured, I’d have him near the bottom of Tier 2B, but there’s a real chance he misses 25+ games before he even plays, so adjust accordingly.
If you look at Chychrun’s total numbers from last season, this ranking is far too low. If you look at what he did in Ottawa, it’s quite underwhelming. It is a small sample, but 5 points in 12 games with solid secondary numbers is fine, but not what we’ve come to expect. As noted above, I’m bullish on Chabot for this season, and in effect, that makes me lower on Chychrun. The Ottawa top unit brings a lot of value, and I don’t see Chychrun going into that role. Their second unit should be fine, but it’s still a second unit. It’s a home run swing I can get behind, but be wary of the downside.
The arrival of Karlsson will surely hurt Letang’s value. The question is, how much? Letang was already trending in the wrong direction and he’s entering his age 36 season, so I doubt that I have any Letang stock this season. Karlsson has been injury prone in the past, and maybe they try some 2D looks on the power play, but I’m quite skeptical of that. Add in that Letang is injury prone himself, and it’s a lot of questions.
Tony Dawgs returns to Carolina where he was a top 20 defenseman two seasons ago. The problem is that Burns wasn’t there then, and now he is. It’s hard to say whether or not Carolina goes with the 2D look on PP1, but I don’t expect it. TDA is very similar to Nurse in the categories they are good and weak at, except with more variance. If things break right, TDA can be a top end #2, but there’s also a chance he’s a #4. Unlike the other non-injury guys in this tier, I like the gamble.
Rielly had a down season by his standards, and now Klingberg has arrived. Is Rielly going to lose his role on the first power play? Perhaps. There’s also a chance that Klingberg is so bad defensively that he ends up a healthy scratch. Toronto has been loyal to Rielly for years, perhaps overly so, and I think his fantasy demise is being written prematurely. I think he finds a middle ground between his last two seasons and settles as a #3.
Ekblad was a huge disappointment last season, as Montour broke out in a way that I expected from Ekblad. Like Montour, Ekblad is going to be out anywhere from the first 15 games to 30 games. I am expecting a bounce back from Ekblad, but don’t reach for a guy who is going to miss significant time. Odds are you will be able to wait on him, but I’m putting him here to accentuate the fact that I like stashing him and then taking his teammate for until he comes back (more on that later).
Tier 6: Let Me Get That Upside
32) Bowen Byram
33) Owen Power
34) Brandt Clarke
35) Luke Hughes
36) Jake Sanderson
Looking at defensemen on the whole, I think the player pool is the deepest it’s been in years. Because of that, I’m more willing to take a swing on upside because the fallback options are much better. All four of these guys should be fantasy superstars down the line. It’s probably early for all of them, but they’re talented enough that it could be the breakthrough.
The only reason I’m not all in on Byram is that he’s blocked by Makar. The shot rate has also been lacking, but I expect improvement there. He’s a massive plus in goals and PIM, and a force in banger leagues. The penalty minutes are also quite good. A 15+30 year is quite realistic with good peripherals, but the PPP will be lacking barring a Makar injury.
The Power story is fairly similar to Byram. Power was an elite play driver as a rookie and he’ll surely get better. That said, Dahlin is blocking him, so the PPP will be lacking. Fingers crossed that doesn’t happen, but Power could be a #1 fantasy option if that did happen. As is, I see around 50 points with great even strength results.
I’m a huge believer in Clarke’s offensive upside long term. The Kings are also well positioned to score plenty of goals with their depth. Unlike the other two, it can be argued that Clarke is a better PPQB than the current #1 guy on his team (Doughty). Despite that, I would be quite surprised if the Kings give Clarke the role over Doughty unless the top unit struggles. The Kings are good enough to force feed Clarke easy minutes which lets me think he can make a first year impact.
All of the buzz is around the third Hughes brother. Luke is in a similar situation that Power was last season. I think Hughes will be a bottom end hold all season, but it’s hard to expect more with Dougie in his way. That said, the Devils could be so good that Hughes puts up quality totals without the PP1 time.
In real life, Sanderson wouldn’t be last on this list. The problem for him is that he has Chabot and Chychrun potentially in front of him, where the other guys only have one player blocking them. I think the median outcome is that you end up cutting Sanderson, but the upside is massive.
Tier 7: Boring, Bottom End Holds
37) Drew Doughty
38) Gustav Forsling
38) Moritz Seider
39) Jacob Trouba
40) Jared Spurgeon
41) Justin Faulk
42) Filip Hronek
43) Noah Hanifin
44) Dmitry Orlov
45) Michael Matheson
The name of this tier is self-explanatory. It may surprise some that Seider is included here, and maybe I’m wrong. But everything went in the wrong direction last season. He’s not a particularly good PPQB, and now the team has one that could usurp him (more on him shortly). The shots are below average, he’s never been good at even strength, and the goals are weak. I do believe in his talent, and this admittedly could blow up in my face, but I’m out on Seider this year. The other guys are all pretty straight forward. Target the guys you need based on the categories you’re short in at this point in the draft. There’s a chance Orlov comes off this tier if he doesn’t get PP time, but we’ve seen Carolina play 2D on the second unit before.
I’m quite bullish on Forsling having a huge early impact with Montour and Ekblad out for 1-3 months of the season. He already was good at everything but PPP, and now he should get PP time. If he’s on the first unit, he could be a top 10 defenseman for the first month. At that point, he’ll probably be a bottom end hold, but it’s still a steal in terms of overall value.
Tier 8: Potential PPQB’s… or Waiver Wire Fodder
46) John Klingberg
47) Shayne Gostisbehere
48) Calen Addison
49) Oliver Ekman-Larsson
50) Torey Krug
51) Rasmus Sandin
52) Brock Faber
53) Cam York
54) Neal Pionk
If Klingberg were to run the first unit for the Maple Leafs, he will have plenty of fantasy value. If he doesn’t, I doubt he’d be a hold. If Gostisbehere were to run the first unit for the Red Wings, he will have plenty of fantasy value. If he doesn’t I doubt he’d be a hold. The other guys need the first unit to have enough value to be hold, and if they don’t, they won’t sniff being a hold.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll keep it moving with forwards next week, and then my Top 200. There’s a chance I put the Top 200 out first next week just so everybody has it for drafts, but if not, it will be by the middle of the week. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
