Today, I move from overall rankings to goaltenders only. I’m going to cover my first four tiers today out of eight. This will take me through 16 goalies. These guys all have a realistic chance of finishing as a top 10 goalie this season to varying degrees. There are some guys in the lower tiers who have an outside chance, but a lot will have to go right for them. That post will not be as detailed as the previous three posts. It will be in part, but when we get to tiers that are beyond desperation, it will be more of a list. But enough about tomorrow’s post, let’s get to the top goalies!
Tier One: Cream of the Crop
1) Igor Shesterkin – Covered in the Top 20 overall here.
2) Andrei Vasilevskiy – It was a bit of a down year last season for Vasilevskiy, and he still finished as the #7 overall goalie. He was closer to 4th overall than 8th, and one of the goalies in front of him switched teams. Vasilevskiy has been a starter for six seasons and has been a top ten goalie in all of them. He’s also been the top goalie twice before. The combo of that floor and ceiling means he has to be in tier one. In reality, all of you readers know this, you’re not coming here for my takes on these two goalies.
Tier Two:
3) Jacob Markstrom – The guys in this tier aren’t quite at the level of the Russians in the tier above them, but they have the upside of being the #1 overall goalie this season. After a very difficult opening season in Calgary, Markstrom was fantastic last season, finishing as the #2 fantasy goalie and second for the Vezina to Igor. The Flames are even better defensively now and I always want to own the goalies coached by a Sutter team. He’s my favorite combo of safety and upside of this group.
4) Juuse Saros – At a time where even the best goalies play around 62 games with their backup playing 20, Saros led the league with 67 appearances. He was outstanding in getting the Predators into the playoffs with a 2.64/.918. The 2.64 is a little high for someone in this tier, but we’ve seen better as recently as 2020-21 where he posted 2.28/.927. Given the volume Saros gets, he definitely has to be in tier two, as last season’s 2.64 was still good enough for him to be the #8 goalie. Maybe it trickles down slightly with Rittich gone, but I’m not convinced Lankinen will be much better. Getting the top volume in the league will also give you more freedom in targeting a variety of different guys for your second and third goalie.
5) Frederik Andersen – Andersen’s debut season in Carolina couldn’t have gone any better, at least until he was hurt before the playoffs. Andersen won 35 of 51 games with a 2.17/.922, good enough to be the third best goalie last season. Carolina is built to be a regular season juggernaut, especially defensively, so I don’t see much reason to expect regression. The injury risk is real, but getting a Carolina goalie can almost never be bad (except for Scott Darling, woof). I could see a case for having him 7th, but I don’t really see a case for him being higher than this simply because of the volume.
6) Connor Hellebuyck – This ranking is a bit controversial, not because of Hellebuyck’s talent level, but that he’s coming off an ugly 2.97/.910 season as the Jets were a mess in front of him and Hellboy wasn’t at his peak level. The Jets defense remains completely in tact, and with the forwards, we’re only looking at a full season of Perfetti as a change for now. Obviously, Winnipeg is somewhat of a ticking time bomb, but unless they start poorly, it seems like they’re going to start the season running it back with one difference: the coach. I’m not a fan of the way Rick Bowness plays from an aesthetic point of view, but his system inflates the numbers of his goalies. I’m not sure the Winnipeg players are best suited to play a defensive system, but they’re certainly going to attempt it and should keep more shots from the outside. Given the elite volume, which won’t change with Rittich replacing Comrie, and Hellebuyck’s pedigree, I’m buying into the bounce back.
7) Ilya Sorokin – If Varlamov was traded this summer as most expected, Sorokin would be #4. Sorokin was the #6 overall goalie last season with an elite 2.40/.925. The problem was that he only won half of his starts, and he only started 52 games. I have a hard time seeing Varlamov playing less than 25 games, and I expect him to be around 30 again. That caps Sorokin’s ceiling a bit, barring an injury or trade of Varlamov. If you buy into the Islanders bouncing back after having a brutal bout of COVID-19 go through the team during the season, you can move Sorokin up a couple spots since the wins will increase. Sorokin needs to be in this tier, but I don’t want to draft him at his best case scenario, so I’m putting him here for now.
Tier Three:
8) Darcy Kuemper – This tier is a group of five goalies that I don’t think can be the top overall goalie, but have a chance of being a top 5 goalie, and a very realistic chance of being a #1 in 12 man leagues. Kuemper’s one season in Colorado couldn’t have gone any better. The Avalanche won the Cup and Kuemper was the #4 overall fantasy goalie. The Avalanche decided they couldn’t afford to pay him so he signed with the Capitals. From 2018 to 2020, Kuemper had a .926 save percentage. It’s clear that he wasn’t a product of playing in Colorado. I have him at the top of this tier because Washington has been pretty good the last couple seasons despite subpar goaltending. Sure, they’re even older now, but Vanecek had a 2.67 GAA even with a .908 save percentage. If Kuemper can play to his career .918, it’s not hard to envision an elite GAA and the wins that come with it. Additionally, I’d expect plenty of volume here if he stays healthy. That’s the big if and why I feel better having him in tier three.
9) Tristan Jarry – Jarry bounced back quite nicely to be a top five goalie last season. I don’t have much to say about Jarry. I think his play in 2019-20 and 21-22 are who he is more than the 2020-21 version. The Penguins are who they are in front of him as well. Jarry should be a net positive in all three goalie categories, and that’s that.
10) Thatcher Demko – Demko’s goals against average is a bit high for a #1, but he was severely hurt by a brutal November before Boudreau took over. I’m always a believer in Boudreau’s goalies, and Demko is the best he’s had in a while. He made a fantasy star out of Dubnyk and he was an average goalie at best. Demko’s massive volume gives him a great floor and assuming Bruce keeps the Canucks tightened up a bit defensively, that’ll be enough for Demko to sneak into the top 10 for goalies.
11) Jake Oettinger – Oettinger had arguably the best goaltending series we’ve ever seen, and his team still lost. Absolutely insane. The reigns are finally his from the beginning of a season in Dallas. We do need to keep expectations in check though. Oettinger only had a .914 in the regular season. He’s also going from Bowness to DeBoer. DeBoer has had plenty of good goalies in the past, but never at the truly elite level for fantasy. He could easily beat this ranking, but Oettinger carries a bit more risk than the guys above him.
12) Jack Campbell – Campbell’s season was a story of two halves, but his overall numbers were solid: 31 wins in 47 starts (49 appearances) with a 2.64/.914. He’s now across the country playing for the Oilers. There’s very little chance of an elite GAA given Edmonton’s style, but it’s not impossible. After all, Mike Smith had a 2.31 in the shortened 2020-21 season. I don’t think he has to have that GAA to pay off this ranking though. He could easily have a .915-.920 GAA with elite volume and wins and that would be plenty to be a top 10 goalie. Campbell is easily the riskiest in this tier, and you can probably convince me he belongs down a tier. The volume keeps him here for now.
Tier Four:
13) Alexandar Georgiev – This group has a path to being a #1 goalie, but there’s significant downside. Georgiev has been trending in the wrong direction the past few seasons, but that didn’t stop Sakic from gambling on him to be the new #1 in Colorado. It doesn’t take much to see the upside for Georgiev. He gets to play for the best team in the league, and they’re the best team by a large margin. The wins alone will probably be enough to make him a #2. I just don’t know what to expect with his GAA and sv%. His GAA has been below 2.91 once in five seasons, and that was 2.71 in 19 games two seasons ago. His save percentage has gotten worse every single season. Even with a natural boost going to Colorado, how much of a jump do we see? 2.60/.910 or worse is a realistic possibility. Also, Francouz will get his fair share of starts as well. Georgiev is the biggest wild card this year in fantasy hockey. If you want to gamble on someone’s ceiling, he’s your guy.
14) Sergei Bobrovsky – Bob was a top ten goalie last season even with a below average GAA and an average SV%. That’s because the wins were tied for the league lead with Vasilevskiy. It could drop a little bit, but Florida should remain one of the league’s best teams. Bob’s downside is twofold. One, he’s been up and down for most of his career. Would it shock you if he had a 3 GAA again? Not me. Also, Knight is still lurking behind him. Bob started 53 of 82 games last season. There’s a chance that number goes down a bit, but barring Knight getting injured, I can’t see it getting better. If you’re in a roto league, I’d like Bob more because I can pair him with Knight quite easily. I have less interest in drafting both sides of a platoon in head to head leagues so odds are, I won’t be drafting Bob in that format unless he falls.
15) Marc-Andre Fleury – Fleury ended up staying in Minnesota this offseason which gives him elite wins upside (he won 9/11 starts there last season). That’s despite Fleury posting a .910 in that time. MAF was dreadful in the playoffs, and there’s a chance he’s just washed at this point. I do like Gustavsson as a backup with upside, but I don’t expect him to get a lot of volume which boosts Fleury’s floor. However, I lean more towards the washed side for him so I don’t plan on having him in any leagues, but I’m not crossing him off my board because he looked washed twice before and turned his career back arond.
16) Jordan Binnington – Binnington was terrible to start last season, lost his job, and then played excellent in the playoffs. Husso left so Greiss is the backup now. I used to be a big Greiss fan, but time will tell if he’s washed now or it was playing in Detroit. Regardless, I’m expecting quite a bit of volume for Binnington on a good team. If I had to ball park it, I’d guess Binnington is around his 2019-20 numbers of 2.56/.912 winning 60% of his starts. That would make him a top end #2 with upside.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back with the rest of the goalies either tomorrow or Monday. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
