I can’t believe the season is already starting today with my beloved Sabres taking on the Devils in Prague. I’ve gone through all of my rankings at this point to provide you with assistance for your drafts. Now, before every team starts their season over the next week, it’s time to make some bold predictions for the upcoming season. For those who haven’t read this type of post in the past, these are meant to be bold. If I hit three of them, I will be quite happy. On the good side last season, I predicted that Talbot would be a top ten goalie and that Gostisbehere would be more valuable than Seider in non-banger leagues despite going 100 picks after him. On the bad side, I predicted that Vejmelka would be a top 15 goalie, Devon Levi would get Calder votes, and Binnington would carry negative value. Let’s get to it!
1) Brandon Hagel gets 90 points. He set a career high in 75 points last season playing over 19 minutes a game. That provides a challenge to Hagel because it’s hard to see the minutes going up much. That said, his power play role is locked in. He’s been working on the point next to Hedman in the preseason, and while I expect him and Guentzel to move around on that side of the ice, it’s a big upgrade in upside regardless. The linemates aren’t the best, but it should allow him to be the primary puck handler on the second line. I do think there is some chance that Tampa doesn’t get Guentzel-Point-Kucherov together all season just to balance things out and Hagel would be the prime beneficiary. I think he gets around 35 goals and around 55 assists with elite PIM to boot.
2) Matvei Michkov scores 30 goals. If you remove older rookies like Panarin (and also Kubalik!), the only players to do this in the last decade are Matthews, Laine, and Connor. This is the kind of company that Michkov deserves to be in. My hope is that the experience playing against men helps his transition into the NHL easily. The puck will already be going through him on the power play and the Flyers will do everything to give his line with Tippett easy minutes. This is purely a bet on his talent, but I’m all in in both the short and long term.
3) Vegas will have multiple months where Eichel is their only holdable forward in 12’ers. I admit this is going to be a little harder to quantify than a player hitting a total, but the main point is that I’m selling on almost every forward on this team. I can’t see Karlsson repeating last season with Marchessault. Stone can’t stay healthy. The bottom six is absolutely disgusting in terms of offensive talent outside of Hertl and potentially Holtz. It is appalling how bad this winger group is. Maybe they move Hertl to the wing and he can become a hold? I certainly won’t be drafting him at his 114 ADP to find out. I can’t imagine owning any of their skaters besides Theodore and Hanifin.
4) Joonas Korpisalo is a top 15 goalie despite Swayman signing a long term extension. The second part of this is becoming more questionable by the day, but ultimately, I do expect the Bruins and Swayman to get a deal done. That said, it could take some time, and like virtually every goalie in the Bruins system, I expect Korpisalo to play well. If he gets off to a hot start, why wouldn’t he be a 1B? They have no idea if Swayman can provide a big workload, and Montgomery isn’t going to rock the boat if Swayman signs a month into the season. Even if that doesn’t happen, it’s not impossible for a backup to provide top 15 value. Rittich was the 15th best goalie last season in roto leagues despite playing only 22 games because his ratios were insane. He’s the perfect dart throw late in drafts, especially in roto leagues.
5) For the first time in NHL history, two defensemen have 100+ points in the same season. Alright, let’s get nuts! Only Karlsson two seasons ago has reached 100 points in the last 32 seasons, so of course I’ll say two guys do it at once. The one thing I will say is that I think four guys have a chance to do it if everything breaks right, and that’s Makar, Bouchard, Q. Hughes and Josi. The three besides Bouchard have reached 90 before, and while it seems farfetched they can take another step, I didn’t think Hughes had last season in him, Makar clearly could, and Josi’s PP boost with Stammer arriving puts them in play. Maybe Bouchard gets 80 assists playing for the stacked Oilers? I doubt it’ll get bolder than this one, but why not dream big?
6) For the first time since 95-96, at least six players will score 50+ goals, two of which will be players who haven’t scored 50 before. That eliminates a large chunk of the best players in the league. The top power plays haven’t been better, and a lot of it is because the top unit is getting more time than ever. It’s inflating some goal totals, and while the last three seasons have had 4, 5 and 4 50 goal scorers, I think we get even higher this year. I see a few players ready to break through into the 50 goal range as well. Jack Hughes is one of them (I almost predicted him for 50 goals and 120 points), but I think Kaprizov and Guentzel are prime candidates, and there are viable longshots with guys like Tage and Robertson. Also, I don’t think anyone was predicting Reinhart or Hyman last season, so maybe someone comes out of nowhere.
7) Brandt Clarke and Erik Gustafsson, both going outside of the top 50 defensemen in drafts, are both top 30 defensemen and holds for the entire season. Doughty’s injury cleared the path for Clarke to run the top power play unit. I don’t think he ever relinquishes it. He’s one of the most gifted offensive defensemen I’ve ever seen in juniors. I’ve long been a Gustafsson fan, who performed admirably well with the Rangers last season in a limited role. There’s a path to top four minutes in Detroit, but even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gustafsson get 30 PPP. The shots will have to get back to around two per game, but that’s well within reason. He’s a great target late. I was going to say he finishes ahead of Seider as a bold pick, but I did that last season with Gostisbehere and it came true. Doesn’t feel that bold any more.
8) Only three teams in the Metro (Rangers, Hurricanes, Devils) make the playoffs. That means at least one of Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa make the playoffs (sorry, Montreal). For years, we’ve been hearing about these teams breaking through, but it hasn’t happened. Last season, both the Islanders and Capitals made it. It’s in play that they do again, but I really don’t like the depth of the Isles and Washington has a lot of ground to make up for last season’s flukiness. Maybe Sorokin carries them, or the Pens / Caps find one more run, but I’m not buying it. Both Buffalo and Detroit had positive GD last season, and Ottawa’s addition of Ullmark puts them in contention as well.
9) We get at least two new playoff teams in the West as well, one of which will be Utah. All eight teams last season made the playoffs with ease, but I think three of them are vulnerable. The injury to Doughty puts the Kings on thin ice, Vegas is one injury away from being completely gutted, and if Hellebuyck isn’t at Vezina level, the Jets can be iffy too. I really like Utah for a few reasons. The biggest two are that Sergachev and Marino massively upgrades their defense, and I think the second line could be excellent with Cooley and Guenther.
10) Alex Ovechkin becomes the goal scoring king, scoring 42+ goals to pass Gretzky. After scoring 31 last season, most people are assuming that it’s going to take two seasons for him to get there. Not so fast my friends! Maybe I’m getting suckered into his big finish to last season and not putting enough weight into his dreadful start. I do like Mangiapane as an improvement on his line, and the Capitals should be able to move the puck better with Chychrun and Roy in the fold. Their forwards are still weak overall, but their blue line could actually be very good, and that will matter more with Ovechkin. Hopefully The Great Eight comes through late in the season, as he already should have the record by a mile if not for lockouts and COVID.
And that wraps up my preseason coverage! My plan is to come back on Tuesday recapping the action from the weekend series and previewing the opening two nights. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Best of luck to everyone this season, take care!
