Hello everyone. Welcome to the twenty-fourth edition of JOT This Down!
This will be the final edition of the year. Thanks to everyone who read along all season. Best of luck as you close out your seasons, hopefully I was able to help some of you bring home a title!
Week 24 (March 25th-31st)
*Vancouver plays 2 games on light days (Monday and Sunday.)
Hello everyone. Welcome to the twenty-third edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the twenty-second edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
With the fantasy season dwindling, the slate is what matters most this time of year. Be sure to drop fringe players if they only play 2 games, and replace them with guys that will play 4 games.
While Friday was mostly quiet, there were a couple big moves along with some nice depth acquisitions. I'm going to cover those moves and give some first impressions on players with their new teams. Let's get to it!
Winnipeg acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Devils for second and third round picks. Toffoli didn't play on Saturday so we don't know exactly where he'll slot in, but I love this move for Winnipeg. With a healthy Toffoli and Vilardi, it's a loaded top six with good depth behind them. Toffoli is owned almost everywhere, so saying that he's a hold everywhere doesn't really change anything. The upside is undeniable, whether he plays with Scheifele and presumably Connor, or with Ehlers and Monahan. Going from the team with the worst goaltending to arguably the best should fix the plus-minus and the shot rate should stay at 3+. What will swing his value the most is whether he goes on the first power play unit. They have Connor, Scheifele and Morrissey as locks. Then you have two spots for Toffoli, Vilardi, Ehlers and Monahan. We should find out on Monday, although Vilardi being out increases his chances, especially because Bowness hates Ehlers for reasons unknown. I would bet on a big finish from Toffoli.
Oh, the irony of the timing. Right as Ryan Smith, owner of the Utah Jazz, puts out a release saying that he's ready to bring a hockey team to Utah, the Arizona Coyotes go on a 14 game losing streak. Over the weekend, they managed to right the ship. The Coyotes snapped their skid on Friday, beating Ottawa 5-3, before defeating the Capitals 5-2 on Sunday. The featured performance was their former 9th overall pick Dylan Guenther. Guenther had a goal and an assist with two shots on Friday before scoring a goal and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Capitals. Guenther playing over 18 minutes on Sunday was extremely encouraging. With Clayton Keller out, Guenther moved to the point on the first power play unit, and delivered three PPP over the two games. I've been a fan of Guenther's as a prospect and it looks like he's finding his game in the NHL. He's an elite streamer for the time being who you can hold for this week if you'd like. Arizona has four games, including two against the Blackhawks. In dynasties, I see a guy that eventually becomes a hold in all formats. I think he'll be a guy who gets three shots on goal per game on average, resulting in 25ish goals with upside for more with a good shooting percentage. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fifth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume four. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fourth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume three. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
It was quite the low scoring day on Thursday, with eight of the eleven games going under their betting total, two of which needed overtime to do so, plus there was a miracle in Boston (more on that later). There were four shutouts on the night, all of which were quite surprising. I'll go in chronological order. The Avalanche were undefeated on the season, so naturally Tristan Jarry shut them out, making 31 saves. Jarry now has two shutouts, two dreadful starts, and one mediocre start. He's one of the highest variance goalies around. I'm lower on him than most, but I acknowledge that he could be a bottom end #1. Next, Jonas Johansson had his second consecutive shutout, making 23 saves against the Sharks. He's clearly must own for now, although like Jarry, the downside is undeniable. Joel Hofer shutout the Flames, making 27 saves. I was high on him because I don't believe in Binnington. Both have been off to a hot start, but I'm skeptical of the Blues being good defensively. I'm bullish in Hofer for dynasties, but in redrafts, he's a selective streamer with upside. Lastly, Jonathan Quick shut out the Oilers, making 29 saves. He made a couple spectacular saves, but color me skeptical. I think this says more about the Oilers without McJesus than anything. Quick is a reasonable streamer in plus matchups for now, but know that it could blow up in your face. Let's see what else happened on Wednesday and Thursday night:
Colorado has been decimated by injuries at a level we've never seen before. The return of Valeri Nichushkin makes him their second healthy top six forward. Luckily for them, Mikko Rantanen put the team on his back on Sunday. After scoring Colorado's only goal against the Rangers on Friday, Rantanen scored all three goals for Colorado on Sunday, tying the game with 7.1 seconds left before winning the game in overtime. Quietly, Rantanen is up to 19 goals on the season, playing at a higher point pace than his monster 2021-22. The shot rate is down a bit so his goal rate is a bit unsustainable, but hopefully the shots tick back up without MacKinnon. Regardless, Rantanen has cemented himself as a top 10 fantasy hockey player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
With Tyler Bertuzzi injured and Jakub Vrana in the league's assistance program (best wishes to him), the Red Wings needed somebody to step up on left winger. Dominik Kubalik, come on down! Kubalik wasn't given a qualifying offer by the Blackhawks after last season, leaving him to sign in Detroit as a free agent. The first two weeks couldn't have gone better, especially the last weekend. Kubalik had a goal and an assist with 4 shots against the Blackhawks on Friday, before having a goal and two assists with six shots against the Ducks on Sunday. With eight points in his last four games, Kubalik is in must-own territory right now. There's no guarantee it lasts, but he's shown he can thrive next to Larkin and Kubalik has been a 30 goal scorer before, so we know he has the upside. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The Panthers have won 11 in a row, and 14 of their past 15 games. There's been plenty of crazy games in this stretch that has them tied for the league lead in points. On Tuesday, they tied the game with less than four minutes left before they won it 20 seconds into overtime, and it was the usual suspects. Aleksander Barkov scored all three goals in the 3-2 OT win, with Jonathan Huberdeau assisting on all three goals. Barkov has a new career high in goals, 37, despite playing in only 63 games to this point. Additionally, Huberdeau now leads the league in points. Yes, that's correct, he leads the league in points. Both of them will be in the discussion to be first round picks in drafts next season. It's going to be great to see them in the playoffs, hopefully for longer than last time around. Let's see what else happened on Tuesday:
It wasn't that long ago that Vladimir Tarasenko requested a trade from the Blues. It wasn't that long ago that Tarasenko could have went to Seattle in the expansion draft. Now, St. Louis has to be thanking their lucky stars that he's still on the roster. Tarasenko had his biggest game of the season on Thursday, scoring a hat trick on four shots and adding two more assists in the 6-2 win over the Sabres. Tarasenko now has 31+41 in 67 games, with a great chance of setting a career high in points. It's a remarkable turnaround for the Russian who is certainly a top 100 player for drafts next season. I don't see him cracking the top 50, but it's great to see Tarasenko playing great hockey again. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
