After blowing out the Senators on Tuesday, I was fully expecting the Sabres to lay an egg in Manhattan on Thursday. Instead, they scored on the first shift of the game and didn't look back. The Sabres won 6-1, with all twelve forwards getting at least one point in the game, just the second time that's happened in team history. Besides the top line continuing to dominate, the big story here is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL saved 25 of 26 shots on Thursday, with the lone goal a completely fluky deflection that looped over him. Based on expected goals metrics, this was a second monster game in a row for Luukkonen, with the Detroit game before that also a solid performance. He's getting back to the goalie that he was last season, which makes him a solid #2 in fantasy. The upside is there for a bottom end #1 because UPL is the clear #1 with Levi the backup. In fact, if Anaheim waives Reimer when Gibson comes back shortly, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sabres claim Reimer back and send Levi down I-90 to Rochester. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's not often that a four point game goes to waste, but it happened on Tuesday night. Travis Konecny rallied the Flyers back to a 4-4 score, scoring two goals and dishing two assists, only for the Canes to score with 31 seconds left to win the game. Konecny already has 7+7 in 13 games, totals that nobody can complain with. He's playing over 20 minutes a night, giving him a great chance to set career high in goals and assists. The one concern is that he's getting destroyed at even strength, currently sitting at -9 despite all of his points. His shot rate is also fine, but not what we are accustomed to. For years, Konecny was around two shots per game, until the last three where he approached three and went well past it. Konecny has the chance to be a top 50 player this season, especially in PIM leagues, but he's going to have to get that shot rate back up. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The season is underway with my beloved Sabres getting dominated twice by the Devils. I'm going to start by talking about what was notable in those two games below, before looking at the games over the next two nights. There's eight games in total between Tuesday and Wednesday, with some intriguing matchups and some possible early answers to some major questions, so I want to say what I'll be watching for from a fantasy hockey perspective. Let's get to it!
We're through my Top 20 overall and now it's time to focus on specific position groups. I'm starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it's a head to head league, I'm never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there's no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it's great to have Igor, but you're going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I'd end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I'm a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I'm not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros' numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you're not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let's look at the cream of the crop!
Two division rivals exploded on Saturday, both winning in dominant 9-2 fashion. Not too often nowadays that you see two 9-2 scores. For Toronto, a 9-2 win against the Ducks certainly wasn't expected, but isn't actually shocking either. On the other hand, Florida blowing Tampa Bay out 9-2 after falling behind in the first 30 seconds of the game qualifies as jaw dropping. Florida is arguably the best team in the league right now, dominating in multiple ways. Matthew Tkachuk is fully back, scoring two goals and two assists with ten PIM in the victory, giving him 13 points in the last five games. Carter Verhaeghe scored two goals and an assist with six shots and two PIM against his former team. He's back on the point of the top unit and with Barkov, making him a top 50 player. Sam Bennett had two goals and two assists iwth three shots and ten PIM. Bennett is firmly on the fringe right now as long as he's with Tkachuk. For Toronto, Auston Matthews had a hat trick and two assists with four shots as he scores goals at an unprecedented rate. Bobby McMann had two goals and an assist with four shots, although I'm still not buying in with his workload. He's bumping up to decent streamer for the time being. Also, if you need short term defensemen help, Timothy Liljegren is on PP1 and dished three assists with Rielly still suspended. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's been a long road to recovery for Artturi Lehkonen. With Big Val in the player assistance program, it couldn't have happened at a better time. After being eased back into the lineup, Lehkonen moved onto the top line the game before Tuesday night. While he went to the second line to open the game, Lehkonen blew up against the Capitals, scoring two goals and adding two assists putting five shots on goal in the 6-3 win. There's a few encouraging things here. One, Lehkonen was on the first power play unit. That alone is massive for his value. Additionally, it was Lehkonen, not Drouin, closing the game for the Avs, as Lehkonen scored an empty netter with a minute left from MacKinnon and Rantanen. Even in this role, Lehkonen received 18 minutes, which is plenty to succeed. This puts him right back on the fringe. Gun to head, I lean towards holding, but his schedule in the near term is heavy on busy days, so I see the case for leaving him as an elite streamer. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
Fantasy Hockey Weekly Newsletter: Week 17
Hello everyone. Welcome to the seventeenth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
The schedule is quite wonky this week. Multiple teams only play 1 or two games and the Sharks do not have a game. After this week, the schedule goes back to normal for a while. Keep tabs on your rosters as there will be many off days, and decisions will need to be made regarding whether or not to hang on to fringe players.
There's nothing else that T.J. Oshie has to prove on the ice. He's won the Stanley Cup and was one of the best players on his team. He became an Olympic hero for his performance in 2014. Oshie is about to play in his 1000th NHL game. This season has been a struggle for Oshie, but he's really turned it around lately, culminating in his best game of the season. Against his old team, Oshie scored a hat trick on five shots. This isn't just a little blip on the radar either. Oshie has a point in six of his last seven games, and the very encouraging thing is his shot rate has been excellent. Even at his peak, he was never a plus in shot rate, but in his last nine games, Oshie has 30 SOG. It's an even better rate if we go to a shorter sample. He's found chemistry with Patches and Strome, and the Capitals surprisingly continue to hang around the playoff picture. While he's playing this well, Oshie is in elite streamer territory. The schedule is about to get very difficult, but they do get another game with St. Louis before that happens. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's been a disastrous season for the Wild, and it's hard to imagine them digging out of this hole. Monday was a lone bright spot, both for the team and their oldest player. The Wild beat the Islanders 5-0, with Marc-Andre Fleury posting a 21 save shutout. The win gave Fleury the second most wins in NHL history, passing Patrick Roy. It's been a very up and down career for Fleury. He was incredible in the 2008 playoffs getting Pittsburgh to the finals. His most iconic moment clinched the Cup the year after. There were a handful of years right after that where his poor play was the reason the Penguins were eliminated early in the playoffs. They won a Stanley Cup with him as the backup. He also saved them the next year when Murray struggled early in the playoffs to lead Pittsburgh to back-to-back cups. He carried Vegas to the Cup finals in their inaugural season. That's how I'm going to remember MAF. There were too many down years for him to be in that inner circle of all-time goalies, and his best generally wasn't among the current elite, as evidenced by him being a Vezina finalist once in 20 seasons. However, when he was at his best, it was incredible to watch, and that will put him in the Hockey Hall of Fame sooner than later. For this season, Gustavsson is back, so I expect them to split the games fairly evenly. He's a streamer in good matchups for now, but like most goalies, MAF can turn into a hold sooner than later, or be complete unusable. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that we get a day in the NHL where all 32 teams play. On Saturday, we were treated to sixteen games spread out over the entire day and it did not disappoint. The Oilers set a franchise record with their 10th win in a row, the Avalanche came from 3-0 down to beat Toronto, and the Flyers snapped the Jets point streak, amongst other things. There were a lot of big performances along the way, but Connor Ingram's 38 save shutout was one of the highlights. So I was right about a Coyotes goalie being a top 15 goalie, I just failed to pick the backup who showed little in the NHL before this season, whoops! Arizona continues to stay right around the wild card spots, and Ingram is the biggest reason why. Don't be surprised if they ride him more in the second half if he can maintain anything close to this .919 sv%, assuming Vejmelka doesn't turn it around. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
For most of last season, Zach Hyman led the league in expected goals. By the end of the season, he had a career high with 36 goals, but didn't even sniff the league lead. This season, he's starting to finish at an elite level, resulting in him pushing towards the league lead in goals. Hyman had a hat trick on eight shots on Saturday, carrying the Oilers to a 3-1 win over the Senators. That gives Hyman 25 goals on the season to go along with 15 assists, a +13 rating, 32 PIM, and almost four shots on goal per game. He's been a top ten forward so far, and while I expect a bit of a drop off in the second half, I don't see much of one coming. That's how good Hyman has been. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
At the end of the day, Patrick Kane chose playing with a former linemate over his best chance to win a Cup, and his hometown. Kane signed a one year deal with the Red Wings, the rival of the team he's most known for, the Blackhawks. Boy, it's going to look weird seeing him in that jersey. Anyways, most would assume that Kane will play on the wing with DeBrincat and Larkin because of his connection with DeBrincat. I'm a little skeptical, except on the power play. No matter how Kane looks physically, Kane is a lock for Detroit's top power play unit. That alone puts him on the fantasy radar. However, there hasn't been one skater that has returned to peak form after a hip resurfacing. It would not surprise me if Kane struggles at even strength, and at the least, I expect Detroit to ease him back in. That means cushy minutes in a limited even strength role, plus the power play time. How good is that going to be for fantasy? I wouldn't be spending a ton of FAAB to get him if he's available. If you have nothing to lose, I'm fine with making a spec add on him if you're in a 12'er or deeper, but keep expectations in check. I would guess the most likely outcome is Kane is a solid streamer who goes back and forth between a bottom end hold and slightly usable. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
