It was ridiculous enough that Tom Wilson set career high in both goals and assists in his 12th season in the NHL, especially after coming off a horrible 2023-24. So of course, Wilson is blowing last season out of the water so far in his age 32 season. Wilson had a goal and an assist with two shots on Friday against Toronto, before scoring two goals and an assist with three shots and two PIM against the Isles on Sunday. Wilson is somehow sitting with 15 goals already, adding 14 assists, in only 26 games. Add in 54 PIM and 69 hits already and Wilson is having a top five fantasy season for a forward as we enter December. Am I buying this? Definitely not. Guys just don't go from a 40-50 point player to 65 and then blow that 65 out of the water at age 32. However, I also wouldn't be looking to move him without getting an insane return. The PIM and hits are locks to be elite and he has turned into a good play driver. With where you drafted Wilson, you're already playing with house money, so let it ride! Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's not too often that we see 23 year old goalies in the NHL. It happens more often now than in the past, but letting them develop in the minors after junior hockey is a must. Jesper Wallstedt just turned 23 on Friday so he's been in while he was even younger, but this season he has cemented himself as an NHL'er. He is an elite prospect, and the time might already be now. Wallstedt had his second consecutive shutout on Saturday, stopping all 28 shots from the high powered Ducks. Wallstedt has started six games and is 4-0-2 with a 2.10/.924. There are a couple major things working in Wallstedt's favor. One, the Wild are playing much better hockey as they get healthier. Two, despite a win on Sunday, Gustavsson has really struggled. It's far from a guarantee that Wallstedt turns into something this season, but if you're hurting in goaltending like a lot of people are, a speculation add of Wallstedt could pay dividends.
For today's post, I'm going to do something a bit different from what I've done in the past. Yes, we don't want to overreact to only 10 days worth of games. That is something I have preached on here for a decade now, as being stubborn and sticking to your priors is generally the best course of action. That said, we do have some more information now than we did ten days ago, and we don't want to completely ignore that. Today, I'm going to highlight some players that are off to amazing starts, and others that have started terribly. Am I buying the hot start, or looking to sell them? Am I worried about the struggling start for a player, or betting on them turning it around? Let's find out!
We keep moving along with defensemen 21-40 for the upcoming season. In case you missed it, you can see the Top 20 here. This is a reminder that MarmosDad will have his first post of the year on Wednesday, and I will be back on Thursday. Let's get right to it!
21) John Carlson - This tier started with McAvoy and goes through Toews. This feels a bit harsh on Carlson, but I'd rather be conservative on a 35 year old trending the wrong way. As I mentioned in the Chychrun board, Carlson is at risk for losing PP1 time for the first time in over a decade. I think they'll try both of them to start again to be fair, but it's possible. I do think the goals bounce back closer to 10, but 10+45 seems close to the best case now. That's fine, but don't draft based on name recognition.
Things are shaking out differently than I expected in Detroit. I thought Petr Mrazek was brought in to be the backup to Talbot, but he’s started three consecutive games. After losing to his former team, the Hurricanes, on Friday 4-2 (saved 28/31 shots), he came back with an 18 save shutout victory in the 3-0 win over the Golden Knights. Please, blog, may I have some more?
It was a slow start for Jake Guentzel in Tampa Bay, but that is clearly a thing of the past. Guentzel scored a goal and an assist with five shots in the 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets, extending his goal scoring streak to seven games. This game brings Guentzel up to 18 goals and 15 assists in 28 games, with the shot rate creeping back up towards three per game. I was extremely bullish on Guentzel in Tampa Bay, ranking him 12th overall. He hasn't quite been to that level, but that's what I'm expecting for the rest of the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
An injury on opening night took Macklin Celebrini out of the lineup for a while, but otherwise, his entrance in the NHL has gone swimmingly. Celebrini scored two goals and an assist with four shots, two PIM, two hits, and two blocks in over 20 minutes of ice time in the 7-2 Sharks win over the Kings on Monday. Celebrini has six goals and four assists in twelve games this season, and surprisingly, he's taking over three shots per game. I was not expecting this type of shot rate out of the gate for Celebrini, which is a game changer for his fantasy value. The plus-minus has the potential to be ugly, but you can make a good case for holding Celebrini in all formats now. Here's to hoping he can maintain this level of play over a long season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It wasn't that long ago that Kyle Connor was coming off a 47 goal, 93 point season with over four shots per game. He was a borderline first round pick going into the 2022-23 season, and while he hasn't been a big disappointment, we haven't see him return to that level. It's only the first month of the season, but Connor is currently the #2 skater in fantasy behind MacKinnon. Connor had a goal and two assists, all in the first period, with four shots on goal in the 6-2 win over the Red Wings. Connor has had at least one point in every game so far this season, with a whopping 9+8 with 40 SOG in ten games. While he won't maintain this pace, the four shots per game is crucial. It will make up for inevitable shooting regression, especially for the Jets on the whole with regards to their power play. Perhaps this run, with Connor reaching 500 points in his career already, will lead him to get the credit he deserves for being one of the best offensive players in the league. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Tuesday was a rare day in the NHL where every team plays Thankfully, they stagger all of the game times, marketing it as "Frozen Frenzy." Arguably the marquee matchup of the night was Tampa Bay at New Jersey, and it certainly was the craziest game. The Lightning fell behind 2-1 before scoring five goals within ten minutes in the second period. In that stretch, Brandon Hagel had a natural hat trick, finishing the game with an assist as well. And yet, that still hasn't put him on the first power play unit . Regardless, Hagel is off to a fantastic start. I wasn't as far ahead of ADP on him as Guenther, but I was very bullish on Hagel. I'm not sure he'll get to the 90 points I attempted to wish into existence with my bold predictions post, but it's in play if he gets that top power play time eventually. Come on Cooper, do it already! Let's take a look at what else happened in the one Monday game and Tuesday night.
We're going to move right into the Top 40 defensemen, following the Top 20 defensemen that you can read here. Let's get right into it!
21) Shea Theodore - This tier started with Montour in the top 20 and finishes with Theodore. If I was coaching Vegas, Theodore would be ranked much higher because he would never leave the first power play unit. He's clearly better than Pietrangelo and Hanifin, but to close the season, Hanifin was on the first unit. Theodore is risky because of that, but he's coming off 42 points in 47 games. It's hard to keep him any lower than this.
Fantasy Hockey Weekly Newsletter: Week 15
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fifteenth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Fantasy Hockey Weekly Newsletter: Week 14
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fourteenth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
