I attribute a lot of it to randomness, but the new coach bump seems to happen over and over again. Right now, it's happening in Detroit, where Todd McLellan has the Red Wings on a seven game winning streak shortly after taking over the team. Given the ugliness of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that's vaulted Detroit right back into contention. A few guys have been thriving for Detroit, but I want to focus on Marco Kasper. The former eighth overall pick is getting his first real opportunity in a big role, playing first line minutes with Larkin and Raymond. In both games over the weekend, Kasper had a goal and an assist, with five shots between the two games. He's getting second power play unit time as well, which is enough to bump Kasper into the middling to solid streamer range for the time being. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
On New Year's Eve, I watched the Leafs - Islanders game in entirety. In the midst of a rough stretch, Matthew Knies stood out. Despite staying off the scoresheet, he was buzzing throughout the game, putting five shots on net in over 20 minutes of ice time. After being a passive shooter for almost two months, Knies was gunning regularly, which was encouraging. It felt like a big game was on the horizon, but we didn't get a big game. We got a massive game. Knies had one of the games of the season so far, scoring a hat trick against the Bruins. That's not all though. Knies also had two assists, six shots on goal, two penalty minutes, and had a +6 rating in the 6-4 win. Wow. He followed that up with another goal against the Flyers on Sunday. The return of Matthews can only help Knies. He's locked into a large role at even strength, and while he's not on PP1, Knies has played his way onto the fringe of 12'ers. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
An injury on opening night took Macklin Celebrini out of the lineup for a while, but otherwise, his entrance in the NHL has gone swimmingly. Celebrini scored two goals and an assist with four shots, two PIM, two hits, and two blocks in over 20 minutes of ice time in the 7-2 Sharks win over the Kings on Monday. Celebrini has six goals and four assists in twelve games this season, and surprisingly, he's taking over three shots per game. I was not expecting this type of shot rate out of the gate for Celebrini, which is a game changer for his fantasy value. The plus-minus has the potential to be ugly, but you can make a good case for holding Celebrini in all formats now. Here's to hoping he can maintain this level of play over a long season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It wasn't that long ago that Kyle Connor was coming off a 47 goal, 93 point season with over four shots per game. He was a borderline first round pick going into the 2022-23 season, and while he hasn't been a big disappointment, we haven't see him return to that level. It's only the first month of the season, but Connor is currently the #2 skater in fantasy behind MacKinnon. Connor had a goal and two assists, all in the first period, with four shots on goal in the 6-2 win over the Red Wings. Connor has had at least one point in every game so far this season, with a whopping 9+8 with 40 SOG in ten games. While he won't maintain this pace, the four shots per game is crucial. It will make up for inevitable shooting regression, especially for the Jets on the whole with regards to their power play. Perhaps this run, with Connor reaching 500 points in his career already, will lead him to get the credit he deserves for being one of the best offensive players in the league. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Vegas has started off the season extremely well at 6-2-1, and it's no surprise that their best forward (sorry Eichel) is at the forefront. Mark Stone continued his torrid pace over the weekend, dishing two assists against his old team, before scoring a goal and two assists with three shots against the Sharks. That brings Stone to a whopping 4+13 in nine games, a point total that actually leads the entire NHL. Obviously that won't last, but there have been seasons where Stone was above a point per game. Getting to play with Jack Eichel (1+3 over two games) has both rolling, and their incredible playmaking has Ivan Barbashev (2+1) mooching at a level that has Barbashev on the fringe. The Vegas schedule is a bit light in games coming up which isn't ideal when they're rolling, but at least they should be well rested to try and maintain this elite level of play. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We're going to move right into the Top 40 defensemen, following the Top 20 defensemen that you can read here. Let's get right into it!
21) Shea Theodore - This tier started with Montour in the top 20 and finishes with Theodore. If I was coaching Vegas, Theodore would be ranked much higher because he would never leave the first power play unit. He's clearly better than Pietrangelo and Hanifin, but to close the season, Hanifin was on the first unit. Theodore is risky because of that, but he's coming off 42 points in 47 games. It's hard to keep him any lower than this.
Two division rivals exploded on Saturday, both winning in dominant 9-2 fashion. Not too often nowadays that you see two 9-2 scores. For Toronto, a 9-2 win against the Ducks certainly wasn't expected, but isn't actually shocking either. On the other hand, Florida blowing Tampa Bay out 9-2 after falling behind in the first 30 seconds of the game qualifies as jaw dropping. Florida is arguably the best team in the league right now, dominating in multiple ways. Matthew Tkachuk is fully back, scoring two goals and two assists with ten PIM in the victory, giving him 13 points in the last five games. Carter Verhaeghe scored two goals and an assist with six shots and two PIM against his former team. He's back on the point of the top unit and with Barkov, making him a top 50 player. Sam Bennett had two goals and two assists iwth three shots and ten PIM. Bennett is firmly on the fringe right now as long as he's with Tkachuk. For Toronto, Auston Matthews had a hat trick and two assists with four shots as he scores goals at an unprecedented rate. Bobby McMann had two goals and an assist with four shots, although I'm still not buying in with his workload. He's bumping up to decent streamer for the time being. Also, if you need short term defensemen help, Timothy Liljegren is on PP1 and dished three assists with Rielly still suspended. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We're very close to the All-Star break with most teams starting their extended break on Sunday. If you look at defensemen production, specifically in goals, you see notable names at the top. Dahlin leads defensemen in goals, and then there's a four way tie behind him with notables like Makar and Hughes. None of that is a surprise. Weegar is one of those tied with Makar and Hughes, which is very surprising, but he went into the season locked into a big role, so let's assume he had some good fortune. But Thomas Harley? He's a player I really liked in dynasties, but to be one goal off the league lead for defensemen? Not even close to my radar. Harley scored two goals on Saturday, including the overtime winner for a second straight game, in the 5-4 win over the Capitals. That gives Harley a whopping 12 goals in 46 games. "Even with Heiskanen back, Harley was a factor. I’m still holding Harley even though I wasn’t expecting to when Heiskanen came back. He’s been that good for the Stars." And that's me quoting me from three days ago copying what Grey does! Somehow, Harley is still available in almost two-thirds of fantasy leagues. With the pool of defensemen dropping off hard at the bottom, Harley should be owned in all formats. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's safe to say that we've reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore. Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3. Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend. Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest. He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game. The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high. In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand's ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron. He's at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player. At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the seventh edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume six. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the fourth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume three. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
I was extremely bullish on Tyler Toffoli's fit with the Devils, even though he wasn't a lock to be on PP1. "Before last season, Toffoli had never topped 31 goals or 29 assists, so expecting a repeat for a guy entering his 11th season in the league seems farfetched. That said, it’s hard to pick a better spot to be in than New Jersey right now for even strength play. People were worried about Toffoli’s power play role to open, but it looks like the Devils are starting with the two balanced unit approach. Personally, I hate it, but it’s a big boost to the value of the guy who normally would be on PP2, which Toffoli looked to be. I’m all the way in." And that's me quoting me in my bold predictions saying Toffoli averages at least a point per game. He was off to a solid start, but he had his first big game on Tuesday. Toffoli scored a hat trick on six shots in a revenge game against the Canadiens. That brings Toffoli to 4+2 in five games with 4.5 shots per game. There's a real chance that he ends up as a top 50 player. Let's take a look at what else happened in the Monday game and the Frozen Frenzy.
